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Fantasy Draft Values: Round Five

I compared our composite player projections against recent MFL10 ADP to find the best draft target in each round. Which player makes the best selection in the fifth round of fantasy football drafts?

The methodology for this exercise is straightforward. I’m comparing a player’s positional ranking in our fantasy points projections to their positional ADP and looking for the biggest favorable discrepancy in each round. I’m talking primarily about MFL10 best ball drafts, but these findings should be applicable to most PPR redraft formats, and they’ll even have some utility for dynasty players who are mulling trades or otherwise deciding how to value players. Let’s take a look at the fifth round and find the best value.

The Best Fantasy Value in Round Five

It’s important to note that roster construction is not the primary focus of this exercise. I’m thinking about it in a general way, but I’m not optimizing my decisions here based on the very important structural considerations that come into play in any draft, but especially an MFL10. I’m really just looking for potential value targets.

Diggs, Stefon WR 20 25 219.2 48.63
Montgomery, Ty RB 17 18 185.9 49.41
Bryant, Martavis WR 40 26 173.7 50.5
Fitzgerald, Larry WR 13 27 235.2 51.24
Luck, Andrew QB 2 3 343.2 53.34
Cook, Dalvin RB 28 19 160.8 53.68
Edelman, Julian WR 28 28 202.6 54.25
Olsen, Greg TE 3 4 209.8 54.26
Snead, Willie WR 26 29 206.5 56.48
Crowder, Jamison WR 34 30 190.6 56.53
Sanders, Emmanuel WR 22 31 214.4 57.85
Coleman, Tevin RB 27 20 163.9 58
Abdullah, Ameer RB 23 21 169.1 59.43

Larry Fitzgerald is the man of the hour. I understand that in a dynasty setting there’s some concern about how many more years he (and Carson Palmer) will play. But for this year? In redraft? Sign me up. Michael Floyd is gone, so even if John Brown is ready to rock, there should be no pressure on Fitzgerald’s target ceiling. Fitzgerald’s game has changed as he’s aged, but that hasn’t hurt him in PPR formats. Although he averaged a career-low 9.6 yards per reception last year, his receptions per game (6.7) were near his career high, and his yards per game (63.9) were his second best since 2011.

We are projecting him near his ceiling, according to the WR Sim App, but really, other than health, what’s going to stop him from getting 150 targets? We project Arizona to throw 600 times; Josh Hermsmeyer’s ARIMA model expects even more than that. Give Fitzgerald 150 (same as last year), then give John Brown and J.J. Nelson 100 targets (roughly a 30 percent increase from last year for each), and give David Johnson 150 (a 13 percent increase), and give everyone else the same as last year…and there will still be 13 targets left over.

Also Considered

Greg Olsen makes sense if you’ve already loaded up on WR. As safe as they come at tight end but with WR-like scoring.

Fade Alert

Dalvin Cook is a promising rookie, but he’s questionable to return value on his ADP. That might change if Latavius Murray can’t get back on the field in time for the season, but for now, I think this is too early for Cook. Since 2000, 82 RBs have been taken in the first two rounds. Just 22 of them had more than half their team’s rushing attempts as rookies. If he can’t dominate the workload, he’ll have a tough time putting up points.

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