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GLSP Projections: Week 1 Surprises

Week 1 is upon us and it’s time to make the first of many start/sit and roster management decisions. To assist you in this endeavor, I’ll be posting two articles per week. Both will focus on GLSP projections. The first article will publish early in the week and share the results of my personal models. Later, we’ll compare my findings to the projections generated by the site GLSP Apps and look for players with surprisingly good and bad ranges of outcomes.

As a reminder, GLSP projections are agnostic of a player’s situation, health and external factors. They are compiled through the use of historical data to identify matchups between comparable players and defenses. How have quarterbacks similar to Alex Smith fared against defenses similar to the Patriots? These are the types of questions that GLSP attempts to answer using a range of outcomes.

Quarterback

My GLSP was very high on Ben Roethlisberger but the site GLSP isn’t convinced. With a floor of 11 points, median projection of 18 and high of 21, he looks like a middle of the road option.

He’ll be facing a Cleveland defense that allowed more points per game to QBs than any other team last season. He might not be a slam dunk, but he should be fine to start.

Carson Palmer has one of the highest floors of the week and profiles as a safe play within both GLSPs.

My model was pessimistic on Dak Prescott and the site app concurs. His range of outcomes is one of the lowest from QBs that would merit starter consideration in single QB leagues.

Matthew Stafford has a high ceiling but average floor within both GLSPs. As you’d expect, Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady and Matt Ryan project with favorable expectations.

Surprisingly Good

Trevor Siemian faces the Chargers on Monday night and could surprise fantasy owners. While he does come with weak low and median projections in both GLSPs, the site app really likes his upside, placing him above the likes of Russell Wilson and Cam Newton. His ceiling was top-10 within my model as well, making him a sneaky upside play to open the season.

Site GLSP 4 Pt PTD 6 Pt PTD
Low 9.7 11.2
Median 14.1 17.1
High 22.5 26.5

Surprisingly Bad

While Drew Brees isn’t expected to struggle against the Vikings, he projects with an average floor and lower ceiling within the site GLSP. My model likes his low-end range of outcomes more, but both agree that his upside for the week is limited. Obviously, he should be started in season-long lineups but might be worth fading in DFS tournaments.

Site GLSP 4 Pt PTD 6 Pt PTD
Low 12.0 14.0
Median 17.4 19.4
High 20.8 24.6

Philip Rivers squares off against the Broncos, so it’s not shocking that his projections are bearish. Both GLSPs place him with limited ceilings and very weak median and low range outcomes.

Site GLSP 4 Pt PTD 6 Pt PTD
Low 11.2 13.2
Median 13.3 16.7
High 19.4 23.4

Running Back

Melvin Gordon faces Denver this weekend, but my GLSP placed him with a higher floor and solid median projection; the site app agrees.

Theo Riddick has a wide range of outcomes against the Cardinals. My model likes his ceiling, but the site GLSP is less bullish.

Demarco Murray, Isaiah Crowell, Le’Veon Bell, and David Johnson project with favorable outcomes.

Surprisingly Good

Thomas Rawls has been struggling with an ankle injury but is listed as the Seahawks starting RB. If he gets the nod, he has the potential to finish as an RB1. I changed the recent games played filter in the RB GLSP for a variety of ranges, but they all liked his chances against the Packers. You’ll need to monitor his health, but he should be worth starting on a lot of teams.

Site GLSP STD 1/2PPR PPR
Low 4.7 5.6 7.0
Median 8.8 9.1 9.6
High 15.1 16.4 17.2

Surprisingly Bad

Terrance West will be the Ravens starter against the Bengals. After reviewing his projections based upon a variety of recent games played, it looks like he could be in for a poor performance. While my model gives him a slightly better range of outcomes, the site GSLP projects him with a very low floor. The presented projection is filtered for nine recent games, his most favorable.

Site GLSP STD 1/2PPR PPR
Low 3.0 3.3 4.0
Median 4.8 6.4 8.3
High 8.6 10.7 12.9

Wide Receiver

My GLSP placed Odell Beckham with a more pessimistic range of outcomes than we’ve come to expect from the elite WR. However, the site GLSP App disagrees. Of course, it’s unclear at this point in the week if he’ll be a go or not come game time.

While Doug Baldwin projects top 10 in all outcome ranges in both models, the site app is not as bullish on his ceiling. Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree could have big games against the Titans but possess low floors. As identified in the early article, Golden Tate and Marvin Jones are limited against the Cardinals and may not be definite starts.

Surprisingly Good

The GLSPs don’t know that Eric Decker and Corey Davis are now Titans, but both like Rishard Matthews. While we may need to dial back the optimism, Matthews is the only receiver of the three that’s played with Marcus Mariota. It’s reasonable to assume that he could be the main target in the team’s first game of the season. Even if he’s not, he still has some room within his range to be a decent start option.

Site GLSP STD 1/2PPR PPR
Low 3.5 5.4 7.2
Median 6.8 9.5 11.2
High 12.5 15.1 17.6

Surprisingly Bad

Jamison Crowder faces the Eagles this week and may need to be omitted from lineups. His entire range of outcomes is low, and his 2016 average of 12 points per game is his high-end outcome.

Site GLSP STD 1/2PPR PPR
Low 3.5 4.5 5.5
Median 5 7.1 9.1
High 10.1 11.2 12.3

Tight End

Surprisingly Good

In the early article, we highlighted Zach Miller as having a really favorable range of outcomes. The site GLSP agrees, giving him one of the best high-range outcomes of any tight end, as well as high ceiling and median projections. He makes for a solid streaming option and should be a safe start.1

Site GLSP STD 1/2PPR PPR 1 1/2 PPR
Low 4 6.6 9 11.4
Median 6.2 8.6 10.9 13.1
High 10.5 13.4 17.2 20.9

Surprisingly Bad

Some drafters faded Jack Doyle, given the uncertainty surrounding the health of Andrew Luck. Still, he remained a popular late-round option. Nonetheless, he should be benched this week. Even if Luck were playing, Doyle would likely be a fade. Both GLSPs project him with low floors and limited ceilings. Regardless of the number of recent games included in the filter, Doyle’s comparables commonly went for approximately five points.

STD 1/2PPR PPR 1 1/2 PPR
Low 2.7 3.7 4.7 5.7
Median 3.2 4.3 5.3 6.3
High 6.3 8.4 10.6 12.7

  1. This assumes Miller is the preferred receiving option at TE. He’s currently listed as the No. 2 behind Dion Sims on the Chicago depth chart.  (back)

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