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Week 1 Roundtable Recap: Poopy Teams; Poopy Football

Welcome to the post-Week 1 roundtable. We’re taking a different format this week: it’s a free for all, and we’ll cover whatever pops into our head.Let’s start with one of the few pleasant surprises:

Jared Goff — is he not awful?

Tod Burros: While he played really well Week 1, it was against the Colts. I want to see Goff do it against an NFL defense. (OK, OK, they are an NFL defense, but barely.) I like Goff, but I think that expectations for the whole offense need to be tempered some — especially Gurley, who really didn’t look that good.

Matt Wispe: Goff pleasantly surprised me with his accuracy. Even if Indy’s defense sucks, he maintained a solid completion percentage. And they didn’t just move to the run once the game was efffectively over.

The Jaguars — are they also not awful?

Wispe: I think it will be interesting to see if the Jags maintain this offense all year. They seemed to turn Blake Bortles into Alex Smith, which sucks for fantasy but might keep him in the league.

Charles Kleinheksel: The Allen Robinson injury might be a roundabout blessing for his owners. Poor quarterback play and a desire to run a lot could have led to a disappointing season. At least now you don’t have to wonder. Eventually his dynasty price will drop, and he’ll be an interesting buy low, since one way or another he’ll, have a different QB next year.

Hasan Rahim: A note about Allen Robinson, given his redraft price: given the increase in running back ADP this offseason coupled with the sharp decline in Robinson’s ADP, it’s quite likely you lost your WR3 or WR4 for the season and not your WR1.

Burros: With Robinson hurt, Jacksonville is going to feed RB Leonard Fournette all the more. On the road against Houston, and he still did well. I think he is an RB1 this year.

Wispe: I’m probably going to shoot out an offer for Robinson this week as a possible dynasty stash. Would rather have him at age 24 (25 when he returns) than a rookie pick.

Marshawn Lynch — Is he back?

Burros: Marshawn Lynch looked like Marshawn Lynch. He seemed fresh off his year off.

Wispe: Lynch once again proved that opportunity outweighs talent.

Burros: I don’t know. He looked like both to me in the little I saw of him.

Wispe: That offensive line plus significant touches is pointing towards a RB2. He played better than I expected.

Burros: What also was interesting (and sad) was that DeAndre Washington was out-touched by Jalen Richard 6-5.

Is 2017 the Year of Zero RB (again)?

Rahim: I think one of the larger silent winners of Week 1 are those who bought into Zero RB as a possible way to win your league this season. As we know, structural drafting gives you an edge. And, pending Monday Night Football, Tarik Cohen, Jonathan Stewart, Chris Thompson, and Theo Riddick are top-12 RBs.

Burros: Shane Vereen also scored 14.

Rahim: Yep. Expanding it out to the top-24, you can include Vereen, Terrance West, Mike Tolbert, and Marlon Mack outscoring several RBs who were selected in the early rounds. While it is only one week, the biggest benefit of structural drafting is to be able to hedge against the weekly variance of the NFL.

Burros: And we haven’t even seen many RB injuries yet.

Anthony Amico: Well, except for David Johnson.

Shane Vereen — Are we doing this again?

Wispe: Anyone buying into Vereen now? I kind of like him.

Rahim: Yeah. Not only was his price very attractive this off season, he’s ostensibly Eli Manning‘s safety valve for check downs.

Wispe: Paul Perkins is proving ineffective, and they never went to Wayne Gallman or Orleans Darkwa.

Rahim: The Giants ran the ball 12 times last night. Darkwa carried it thrice for 14 yards. But I could swear I didn’t see it happen live on television, and I watched the whole game.

Kleinheksel: Team Vereen Screen.  I’m in.

Hasan: Yeah, he saw a team-high 10 targets. If this is his usage going forward, then guys who took him late this season in PPR leagues are going to have a good time (for as long as he stays healthy).

Kleinheksel: I mean if the line is bad that prob helps Vereen. Quick outlets.

Rahim: Yessir. Which means outside of Odell Beckham, Vereen can be a worthy spot starter (especially PPR leagues). But the same can be said for most “pass catching backs.”

Other Giants — Do We Care?

Rahim: What are your thoughts on Evan Engram? He saw five targets, caught four balls for 44 yards (including a 31-yard bomb).

Amico: I think the outlook for all of the ancillary targets changes once Beckham is back. Engram is fun, but I’m probably still leaving him as a redraft streamer.

Rahim: Would you wait and see how Brandon Marshall fares this season? I saw some guys on Twitter fretting that Marshall is having an “Andre Johnson in Indy” season, but I think it’s far too early to tell.

Burros: I think unless the Giants can protect Manning better, no one but Beckham can be trusted. And there is no reason to believe they will protect Manning better. I hate Jerry Reese. Spending for Marshall instead of offensive line was dumb.

Seattle RBs — This nonsense again?

Amico: Chris Carson outsnapped Eddie Lacy 27-7.

Brian Malone: Is it a Carson-Thomas Rawls battle for Seattle’s top RB?

Rahim: C.J. Prosise saw four carries and zero targets. Not great.

Amico: I was surprised Prosise wasn’t used more in comeback mode.

Rahim: Exactly, Anthony. I wonder if he’s still hurt? Or dealing with some undisclosed soft tissue injury?

Amico: They were definitely handling him with kid gloves in pre-season. But any optimism I have certainly is holdover from loving him to begin with.

Rahim: Plus he had the groin issue. No reason to run him into the ground in a blow out. (Full blown Prosise truther status – engaged)

Marquise Goodwin — Because Torrey Smith worked out so well

Wispe: Anyone like Marquise Goodwin after week 1? Received 46 percent of team air yards. Was third behind DeAndre Hopkins and A.J. Green.

Ryan Bobbitt: [raises hand]

Amico: If only the 49ers could keep Brian Hoyer upright.

Jeremy Marin: Goodwin was interesting because he only received six targets. Pierre Garcon had a 33.95 percent air yards share with 10 targets. George Kittle with the next highest at just 8.69 percent on six targets. Probably speaks more to how they use each player, but Goodwin could be a poor man’s DeSean Jackson with an average of 21.3 air yards per target.

Kleinheksel: I have a hard time buying Goodwin. He’s never been reliably productive, and he’s on, frankly, a poopy team.

Burros: Goodwin dropped an almost perfect bomb.

Wispe: I’m not actually advocating him in shallower leagues, but in a league like SFB, I’m keeping an eye on him.

Bobbitt: What about 6 targets for Carlos Hyde? Actionable or no?

Kleinheksel: Yes, imo. Did Kyle jfdafdasjfda;k [Close, Charlie. It’s Kyle Jusczyk.] get injured? That would make it more actionable yet.

Bobbitt: Yes, the Juice-check injury probably increased his targets.

Jeff Matson: The 49ers paid Juszczyk $21M so they have to keep trying. He left the game for a bit with a back injury but returned.

Davante Adams and Randall Cobb — Who’s the Man?

Rahim: Davante Adams saw tough coverage all afternoon, but Aaron Rodgers targeted him seven times. He’s likely overvalued this season, but Rodgers wasn’t shy targeting him in traffic.

Burros: If he gets seven targets a week, he can pay off his draft spot, or close to it. The bigger issue is that Randall Cobb really looked like Randall Cobb again and that would hurt Adams.

Wispe: Adams seemed to be fairly reliant on red zone targets in 2016. Those weren’t likely to repeat.

Rahim: Right, they weren’t. I suspect Cobb’s lingering injuries led to a boost in Adams’s usage as well last season. This week vs. Atlanta should be interesting since Desmond Trufant is likely going to shadow Jordy Nelson.

Amico: Cobb had the same market share through the first six weeks of 2016 as Nelson did. I expect Cobb to be the 1B in this offense and Adams the 2.

Marin: In Week 1, Adams had a higher market share in air yards than Cobb, 28.05 percent to 18.65 percent. Adams may have been limited because of the opponent more than anything.

* * *

RotoViz: we watch the games so you don’t have to. Enjoy Week 2, everyone!

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