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Week 3 Rest-of-Season Mock

Unless you’re sending or receiving trade offers, there’s little impetus to consider player values after the fantasy football season begins. You set your lineup, make your waiver claims, and sweat it out from Thursday to Monday. But rethinking player values can help you make a championship-winning trade, and now–before everyone’s values have settled–is the perfect time to strike. To get you started, we gathered a few RotoViz writers for a rest-of-season, four-round redraft mock. We assumed a 12-team, PPR league, starting 1 QB, 2 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 TE, and 1 flex. Enjoy!

Round 1

1.01    Brian Malone: Antonio Brown. One of the few top picks who has lived up to his price so far. Amico was right!

1.02    Nick Giffen (RotoDoc): Le’Veon Bell. I’m not worried about the slow start. The touches were there Week 2 against a good defense.

1.03    Ben Gretch: Julio Jones. The opportunity has been limited, but Jones looks fine. I’m confident the volume will swing back.

1.04    Hasan Rahim: Mike Evans. There were several high-end wide receivers I was eyeing here. I took Evans mainly because he has had his bye week, and plays on an offense with less question marks than the Giants or the Bengals.

1.05    Matt Wispe: Odell Beckham. He’s still playing hurt, but as he heals, his volume should return.

1.06    Shawn Siegele: Melvin Gordon. He owned better Sim Scores than Elliott entering the season, and his receiving/scoring double threat trumps poor efficiency between the 20s.

1.07    Brian: AJ Green. Even with the Bengals doing their best Jets impression, Green is getting his. And Green should be a winner with the move to Bill Lazor as offensive coordinator.

1.08    RotoDoc: Kareem Hunt. Efficiency will regress. Volume will increase. Only 12th in RotoViz’s Expected Fantasy Points per game (rushing+receiving) this year among RBs through two games. Expect that to go up.

1.09    Ben: Ezekiel Elliott. He’s a solid RB2 right now with no scores and a dud performance, which shows off his underrated receiving value.

1.10    Hasan: Devonta Freeman. Although he’s seen less receiving work than Tevin Coleman to date, he’s the clear lead back in Atlanta.

1.11    Matt: LeSean McCoy. McCoy’s currently tied with Tarik Cohen for the highest RB target share with 25%. Add in the fact that he’s seventh in total rush attempts, and McCoy looks like one of the safest RBs to have a steady workload all season.

1.12    Shawn: Michael Thomas. The Saints No. 1 is well down the current leaderboard with 134 scoreless yards, but his volume (as represented by both targets and air yards) is strong.

Round 2

2.01    Shawn: Keenan Allen. Allen answered questions about his health and role over the first two weeks, and though he continues to face a rough schedule through Week 7, things open up considerably down the stretch.

2.02    Matt: Jordy Nelson. Even with only a 9 percent target share, Nelson has 20.9 PPR points. As that share increases, Nelson will have one of the highest ceilings each week.

2.03    Hasan: Rob Gronkowski. A razor-thin New England Patriots receiving corps should result in Tom Brady looking Gronkowski’s way more often in the future.

2.04    Ben: Amari Cooper. In an exercise like this, it’s hard to know whether others have reshuffled similar to you. I was targeting Freeman and Allen here, but Cooper’s a fine consolation prize. The only real concern I have for Cooper is how good Michael Crabtree is.

2.05    RotoDoc: DeAndre Hopkins. Hopkins currently has the most receiving expected points and targets, and unlike someone else I was considering, he’s actually come close to meeting that expectation.

2.06    Brian: Dez Bryant. Pretty sure this is Nick’s “someone else.” [RotoDoc: Yep!] He’s finally getting the volume we’ve clamored for, and I’ll bet he starts to make use of it.

2.07    Shawn: Todd Gurley. Gurley is the risky version of Gordon in an offense that’s growing but still unproven. Coming off of an almost impossibly inefficient season, he will provide scoring and receiving value (and volume) even if the other numbers remain poor. (Editor’s Note: This one worked out in a big way last night.)

2.08    Matt: Jay Ajayi. Ajayi’s 88 percent market share of rush attempts (admittedly through only one game) currently leads all RBs and indicates a stronghold on the lead RB role on his team.

2.09    Hasan: Alshon Jeffery. The Eagles are racking up lots of Air Yards this season as Carson Wentz is taking several deep shots per game. Lacking any semblance of a working run game, the Eagles’ offense should skew pass heavy this season. Jeffery should be the beneficiary going forward, once the two get on the same page.

2.10    Ben: Brandin Cooks. I’m fading the rush TDs and encouraged by the pass volume on the team level. Cooks’ targets are concerning, but he’s on a new team, has an 11.4 YPT, and also has a ton of Air Yards.

2.11    RotoDoc: Ty Montgomery. Apparently I’m starting RB heavy. Montgomery is a workhorse back until proven otherwise. He has the sixth most expected points at RB over 2 games.

2.12    Brian: Stefon Diggs. Yeah, it was against the Saints, but Diggs looked like a top-six WR in Week 1. I’m not penalizing him for a rough Week 2 with an unexpected QB switch.

Round 3

3.01    Brian: Doug Baldwin. Sticking to my priors on Baldwin, who hasn’t posted a touchdown but is still producing like a WR3.

3.02    RotoDoc: Travis Kelce. Second-most expected points at the TE position so far, and if he were a WR, he’d currently be WR10 in PPR.

3.03    Ben: Christian McCaffrey. Extremely encouraged by him playing over 60 percent of snaps both weeks and averaging over eight receiving points. Cam Newton missed him for an easy TD in Week 2, and his rushing efficiency will improve.

3.04    Hasan: Demaryius Thomas. Thomas has the most targets, catches, and yards through two weeks. Although he hasn’t scored yet, maintaining a stranglehold on Denver’s target share should lead to increased TDs in the near future.

3.05    Matt: Carlos Hyde. The only question with Hyde is whether his offense can keep in games long enough for him to get carries. Hyde currently gets 71 percent of the 49ers rush attempts, fifth among RBs, and 20 percent of the team targets, fourth among RBs.

3.06    Shawn: Jarvis Landry. A crazy value based on Hermsmeyer’s preseason air yards algorithm, Landry fell due to a weird narrative – “Put perpetually disappointing Jay Cutler and DeVante Parker together and they’ll become the Miami version of Josh McCown and Alshon Jeffery!” – and the not-so-subtle hints from Dolphins management that they didn’t see their possession star as a foundation piece. Then he caught 13 passes in his 2017 debut.

3.07    Brian: C.J. Anderson. Another year, another flash of dominance from Anderson. This is the year he’ll string more than a few games together; I can feel it.

3.08    RotoDoc: Davante Adams. I don’t love this pick, given I have a tier drop right here, but Adams has 8.5 targets per game, the 15th most reEP per game,1 and has more volume potential should Nelson and Randall Cobb continue to struggle with injuries.

3.09    Ben: Leonard Fournette. Week 2 was more promising than 100 yards and a TD on 26 carries in a big Week 1 win. Fournette played late in a blowout loss, scored in the fourth, and T.J. Yeldon’s apparently healthy scratch led to five Fournette targets as well.

3.10    Hasan: Dalvin Cook. Through the early part of the season, Cook has emerged as the lead RB on the Vikings. He’s accounted for almost 70 percent of all Vikings rush attempts, and his performance has relegated Latavius Murray to bench duties. While it would be nice to see Cook get more receiving work, he’s shown to be a capable RB and a strong RB2 candidate with RB1 upside.

3.11    Matt: Michael Crabtree. The current leader in PPR points for WRs, Crabtree is a nice value in the late third. Currently receiving 22 percent of targets, Crabtree already has three touchdowns and only has two redzone targets. If that increases, his scoring could maintain as a high-end WR2.

3.12    Shawn: Emmanuel Sanders. Undervalued as always entering the season – but honestly, still not an exciting pick – it could get really wild in Denver if Trevor Siemian is a legitimate NFL QB.

Round 4

4.01    Shawn: Adam Thielen. No. 2 in yards after two weeks despite playing one of them with Keenum, Thielen is the 1b to Diggs’ 1a and pushing to flip the script there.

4.02    Matt: Golden Tate. Tate is currently receiving 27 percent of the team’s targets and is the least discussed member of his own receiving corps.

4.03    Hasan: Terrelle Pryor. Pryor leads the team in targets (just barely), and yards (just barely). He’s failed to convert most of his targets into catches, and it’s possible he’s still learning the WR position. Currently, Jordan Reed and Jamison Crowder are banged up, freeing up additional targets for Pryor. Facing a softer pass defense schedule, Pryor should hopefully return to the dominant WR1 he was not too long ago.

4.04    Ben: T.Y. Hilton. I’m not thrilled about this pick, but I also think people are far too convinced Andrew Luck won’t play at all in 2017, based on the history with Peyton Manning.2 Hilton has meanwhile caught 7 of 13 targets for 105 yards for a team averaging 15.5 completions and under 200 passing yards thus far. If team volume increases, he could be viable without Luck in spots.

4.05    RotoDoc: Zach Ertz. I think elite TEs are going undervalued a bit because of the injury situation, but I now have two of the top three healthy TEs at a position that is thinning out quickly. Ertz would currently be the WR17 in reEP per game and the WR13 in PPR points per game if he were a WR.

4.06    Brian: Tyreek Hill. We had one niggling question going into 2017: would the Chiefs use Hill like a WR1? So far, they have. He has a respectable 0.22 target share and a strong 0.35 air yards share. I’m happy to draft him as a low-end WR2.

4.07    Shawn: Derrick Henry. With some injury uncertainty for my last highly-ranked WR, I’m going to go with one of the top Zero RB candidates heading into the season. We’ve already seen Hunt make the jump, and Henry’s Week 2 offered an appetizer of what may be next.

4.08    Matt: Marshawn Lynch. I wasn’t a believer before the season, but Lynch currently ranks sixth among RBs in ruEP.

4.09    Hasan: DeVante Parker. Although Jarvis Landry is clearly the WR1 in this offense, Parker saw nine targets. Parker caught the ball four times for 85 yards, including one highlight reel grab where he “Moss’d” a defender. Boasting a career RACR of 0.71 and an aDOT over 10.0, Parker could break out with some help from QB Jay Cutler.

4.10    Ben: Randall Cobb. The injury situation is unclear, but Cobb has looked like his former self thus far. He’s averaged just over 15 PPR points, despite missing the end of Week 2 and having both a TD and a separate 36-yard catch called back by questionable “pick” offensive pass interference penalties.

4.11    RotoDoc: Larry Fitzgerald. Fine, I’ll take the boring old man. Eighth in reEP through two games, questions surround John Brown’s health going forward, and I’m not going to snipe Brian here.

4.12    Brian: Tarik Cohen. Chasing points? Chasing points. But it’d be a minor upset if Cohen averaged fewer than six targets per game going forward — he has 20 so far. Throw in a few carries against nickel defenses, and he’s a solid RB2.

Final Thoughts

Ben – I took a lot of slow starters, not necessarily by design, as I would have taken players like Hunt in the first. But Jones, Cooper, and Cooks are all guys who you draft for the booms and accept some lulls. There are both positive and negative indicators for all three so far. My opinions of McCaffrey and Fournette have improved, as underlying playing time and targets data provide positive signs.

Shawn – I’m buying big, athletic backs with receiving roles and likely future goal line touches. Some of our favorite high-volume receivers appear poised to push back to 2015 levels, and I’m looking to add as many of those types of pass-catchers as possible.

Matt – I went a little more balanced between RB and WR than I would have expected, but with two high-upside WRs (Beckham and Nelson) available, I couldn’t pass up on them, even with their current injury concerns. For my RBs, I tried to take the most solidified situations. I may have reduced my ceiling with some of the non-pass catching RBs, but the floor of production is relatively safe.

RotoDoc – I think the elite tier of (healthy) TEs went a bit too late, and I’m happy to scoop up two of them later than where other WRs of equivalent production and opportunity are going. I’ve now thinned out an already thin position, and gotten value from them. I hate my RB-RB-WR-BadQB-RB start. A WR-heavy approach would have made more sense. My WR situation is disgusting.

Brian – My favorite pick was the one I almost botched: Tyreek Hill. I’ve never been a fan, but he looks like a high-end WR2 going forward. I don’t feel great about Baldwin or Diggs at the 2/3 turn, but that’s just a dead zone of the draft for me. Looking at the whole draft, it seemed like folks embraced positive early performances but didn’t fret negative ones. I think that’s the right approach after two weeks of football.

Hasan – I took a WR-heavy approach and hoped to grab several receivers who sit atop of their respective depth charts. I’m pleased that I landed several guys who’re the clear target hogs in their offenses (Demariyus Thomas and Alshon Jeffery) along with a high-end TE in Gronkwoski. Ostensibly, several of my selected players are off to slow starts, but their sustained high volume should help them return value this season. I also took a chance on both Pryor and Parker, hoping that one will enjoy a breakout campaign this season and make for a trustworthy flex option. Both of my selected RBs see larger number of their teams rush attempts, but are versatile enough to be deployed in the receiving game as well.

  1. If you remove John Brown, Jaron Brown, and Rashard Higgins who have each only accumulated stats in 1 game.  (back)
  2. It’s certainly possible, especially if they lose this weekend and are staring down 0-4 with a road game in Seattle on tap for Week 4.  (back)

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