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FanDuel GPP Value Plays – Week 5

Each week I’ll explore cheap players whose FanDuel price does not match the ceiling they offer, making them GPP value plays. In FanDuel GPPs, I recommend cheap players who will offer at least 3x value, providing salary relief for your remaining roster spots.

In general, I will be looking at quarterbacks priced below $7,500, running backs and wide receivers below $6,500, and tight ends below $5,500. It is important to remember that these value recommendations are for GPPs (and not cash games), so we’re aiming for a hit rate above 20 percent.

Week 4 Review

  • This is the time to plug my FanDuel GPP value plays Week 4 review article where I dive into hits and misses, as well as how I can apply these lessons to improve my process moving forward.
  • Week 4 Results:1 Total = 3/7 (43%), QB = 0/1, RB = 0/2, WR = 2/3, TE = 1/1.
  • Year-to-Date Results:
    • Total = 10/21 (48%)
    • QB = 2/4
    • RB = 4/8
    • WR = 4/12
    • TE = 3/4

Week 5 GPP value plays

QUARTERBACKS

  • Eli Manning ($7,000)

3x GPP Value Threshold: 21 fantasy points.

Vegas: The Giants are 3.5-point home favorites versus the Charges in a 44.5 total with an implied team total of 24. Manning checks boxes as a home favorite with an implied team total of at lest 24. This total is also being bet up (opened at 43.5/44), which is a plus.

Volume: The Giants are currently second in pass-to-run ratio (69.9 percent) and second in passing plays per game (41.5) through four weeks. With the Giants being fifth in pace of play and the Chargers sixth, this game sets up to have a lot of total plays, and thus opportunity to accumulate fantasy points.

Matchup: The biggest concern for the Giants is their poor offensive line going up against a Chargers defensive line that boasts the sixth best adjusted sack rate. However, teams that travel across the country to play in a 1pm EST game typically start off slower. The Chargers offer an average matchup in terms of team pass defense DVOA and pass defense DVOA against WR1, WR2, and other WR. However, the real advantage is at TE, where the Chargers are 30th in DVOA against the TE. The Chargers defense is also surrendering the eighth best passer rating to opposing QBs (101). Manning has a lot of pass-catching options to exploit this secondary.

Offensive Momentum: After the Giants’ slow offensive start the first two weeks of the season (3 and 10 points), they have put up offensive numbers we are more used to seeing the past two weeks (24 and 23 points). I expect them to carry this offensive production into week 5, especially with a total being bet up. We can fully expect the majority of the fantasy points in this offense to go toward the passing game.

  • Others Considered: Philip Rivers ($7,300) – As stated above, I expect this to be an up-tempo game with a lot of plays. Even though the Giants were perceived to have a good defense going into the season, their pass defense has disappointed so far as the 25th pass defense (DVOA).

Running Backs

  •  Ameer Abdullah ($6,000)

3x GPP Value Threshold: 18 fantasy points.

Vegas: The Lions are 3-point home favorites against Carolina in a 43.5 total with an implied team total of 23.25 points. Abdullah checks the home favorite box.

Touches: While the Panthers have a solid run defense (13th in DVOA), RB is the position that relies most on volume. Abdullah is averaging 18.75 touches per game with 17 touches being his fewest in any game this year. Abdullah has led the Lions RBs in offensive snaps in three of four games. The biggest concern for Abdullah’s chances of hitting GPP value is his lack of red zone volume (just six carries in the red zone). But Abdullah is seeing a lot of volume for his price.

  •  DeMarco Murray ($6,400)

3x GPP Value Threshold: 19.2 fantasy points.

Vegas: No line is currently posted due to the unknown surrounding Marcus Mariota‘s availability.

Touch Potential: Although Murray has seen 12, 9, 14, and 7 carries and has two receptions in each of his 4 games so far this year, he was injured during the second game and the Titans were in very negative game script against the Texans in a 57-14 loss. Even with Derrick Henry there, Murray is likely to see 12-15 carries and have a couple catches. I am not too concerned about Mariota’s health for Murray’s value. If Mariota plays, Murray will probably be more efficient, while if he can’t go, Murray will likely see increased volume. The Titans are 11th in carries per game and 25th in pass-to-run ratio (i.e. skewed towards run heavy).

Offensive Line: The Titans are No. 1 in run blocking efficiency, and the offense as a whole is No. 2 in rush rank DVOA. In 2016 and 2017, the Titans offensive line has created the fifth most adjusted line yards.

  • Others Considered: Joe Mixon ($5,900) – After last week’s dud performance, I don’t want to recommend Mixon as a top GPP value play. However, if he is going to see 18+ touches every week, he has to remain in consideration based on touches per FanDuel dollar.

Wide Receivers

  • DeVante Parker ($6,100)

3x GPP Value Threshold: 18.3 fantasy points

Vegas: No line is currently posted due to the unknown surrounding Mariota’s availability. The Dolphins are home against the Titans, in their first true home game of the season.

Matchup:  The Titans rank 29th in DVOA against the pass. They have given up four pass TDs in each of the past two games (five to WRs). Their two recTDs per game to WRs are the most in the NFL and 0.5 more than any other team. They have also given up the second most fantasy points to WRs on the season.

Air Yards: Parker is currently dominating the Dolphins in terms of air yards, which Josh Hermsmeyer has shown is a more predictive measure of future fantasy production than total receiving yards.

Screen Shot 2017-10-04 at 10.26.07 PM

His 421 air yards are 10th in the NFL and his 43 percent air yard market share is second in the NFL.

Volume: Parker has played on 99.4 percent of Miami’s offensive snaps. While Parker in the past has been thought of as a low-target, boom-bust option, he has actually seen nine targets per game (11th) and has six receptions per game (10th). He has been able to convert that volume into 76.7 receiving yards per game (7th), with the aforementioned air yards profile.

  • John Brown ($6,200)

3x GPP Value Threshold: 18.6 fantasy points

Vegas: The Cardinals are 6.5-point away underdogs in Philadelphia in a 45 total with an implied team total of 19.25.

Matchup: Brown gets a mouth-watering matchup against an Eagles secondary which has given up the third most fantasy points to WRs this year. After playing well in weeks 1 and 2 against the Redskins and Chiefs, the Eagles have been torched by three 100-yard receivers and four TDs to WRs the past two weeks.

Volume: Brown has only played in weeks 1 and 4, and has nine and seven targets, respectively. Even more enticing is the Arizona passing volume. Carson Palmer leads the NFL in passing attempts, and is first in red zone pass attempts and second in 10-zone pass attempts.

  • Devin Funchess ($6,300)

3x GPP Value Threshold: 18.9 fantasy points

Vegas: The Panthers are 3-point away underdogs in Detroit in a 43.5 total with an implied team total of 20.25 points.

Volume: Since the Greg Olsen injury in Week 2, Funchess has 19 targets over the past two weeks, and his target share has hovered around 30 percent during that span. In Weeks 3 and 4, Funchess played the most snaps of any Carolina WR (85 percent, 92 percent).

TD Potential: In my week 4 GPP value play article, I noted that Funchess is a FanDuel-type play because his fantasy upside is a product of his TD-scoring ability. Funchess has nine career TDs on 64 receptions (1 TD per 7.1 receptions). After last week’s 7-70-2 performance, Funchess flashed that TD upside.

  • Others Considered: Aldrick Robinson ($4,600) – If Marquise Goodwin (concussion) is not able to play this week, Robinson gets a gorgeous matchup against the Colts. While Pierre Garcon will be shadowed by Vontae Davis, Robinson will be able to run free against the Colts secondary that ranks 29th in DVOA against WR2. With Goodwin’s injury last week, Robinson saw 12 targets. While he was really inefficient with that volume (3-52-0), he can certainly hit GPP value in one play.

Tight Ends

  • Austin Seferian-Jenkins ($5,500)

Value Threshold: 16.5 fantasy points

Vegas: After opening as a 2-point underdog, the Jets are 1-point favorites away against the Browns in a 39.5 total with an implied team total of 20.25. While Seferian-Jenkins is an away tight end with a low implied team total, his matchup and volume are working in his favor.

Matchup: The Browns have surrendered the second most fantasy points per game to TEs (16.57 ppg; only behind the Giants), despite facing a list of pedestrian TEs. This game log includes 2-TD games from Jesse James and Tyler Kroft as well as allowing Ben Watson to post an eight-reception, 91-yard game (they did hold the Colts TEs in check). The Browns rank last in Warren Sharp’s Target & Output Adjusted Receiving Success (TOARS) to TEs.

Volume: After serving a two-game suspension, Seferian-Jenkins has seen 10 targets over the past two games (5 per game), a 22 percent target share which would be third in the NFL. QB Josh McCown loves his TEs – has was the QB during Gary Barnidge’s big season.

  • Others Considered: Evan Engram ($5,400) – I love Engram’s volume (tied for second among all TEs in targets), and he checks boxes as a home favorite with an implied team total of at least 24 points. He is neck-and-neck with Seferian-Jenkins as my TE GPP value play.

Let me know which FanDuel GPP value plays you agree with, disagree with, or who I left out @Michael_Dubner

  1. Cash line for week 3 = 128.12 points, value success formula = (6667/Player’s Salary)^1/3 * 2.1  (back)

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