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FanDuel GPP Value Plays – Week 7

Each week I explore cheap players whose FanDuel price does not match the ceiling they offer, making them GPP value plays. In FanDuel GPPs, I recommend cheap players who will offer at least 3x value, providing salary relief for your remaining roster spots.

In general, I will be looking at quarterbacks priced below $7,500, running backs and wide receivers below $6,500, and tight ends below $5,500. It is important to remember that these value recommendations are for GPPs (and not cash games), so we’re aiming for a hit rate above 20 percent.

Week 6 Review

  • Week 6 Results:1 Total = 3/7 (43 percent), QB = 0/1, RB = 2/2, WR = 1/3, TE = 0/1.
  • Year-to-Date Results:
    • Total = 18/42 (43 percent)
    • QB = 2/6
    • RB = 6/12
    • WR = 6/18
    • TE = 4/6

Week 7 GPP value plays

QUARTERBACKS

  • Tyrod Taylor ($7,000)

3x GPP Value Threshold: 21 fantasy points.

Rushing Upside: It’s more efficient for QBs to run than to pass for fantasy points.2 Taylor is second among QBs in rushing attempts despite having an early bye (32 total; 6.4 per game). While he has yet to find the end zone on the ground this year, he has six and four rushing TDs the past two years while running at a similar rate.

Matchup: Three of the five QBs to face Tampa Bay have had three-TD performances. The Buccaneers have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing QBs, are 31st in defensive DVOA, 31st against the pass, and 14th against the run.

  • Others Considered: C.J. Beathard ($6,300) – Beathard has passing and rushing upside at a cheap price against the Cowboys defense that ranks 23rd in DVOA against the pass and has allowed four straight QBs to throw for multiple passing TDs.

Running Backs

  • Joe Mixon ($5,600)

3x GPP Value Threshold16.8 fantasy points.

Vegas: The Bengals are five point away underdogs in Pittsburgh in a 40.5 total with an implied team total of 17.75 points. An away underdog in a low total is negatively correlated with fantasy production for RBs, however, this will keep Mixon’s ownership low on a week with little value.

Volume Opportunity: Since Bill Lazor took over as the offensive coordinator, Mixon is averaging a 53 percent snap rate (compared to Giovani Bernard’s 29 percent and Jeremy Hill’s 19.7 percent) and 19 touches per game. Mixon has out-touched Bernard and Hill inside the 10-yard line (three vs. combined two).

Matchup: In terms of efficiency, the Steelers have a good overall defense (fourth in DVOA), but they are better against the pass (fourth) than the run (12th). While one may think this is a Bernard game due to the spread (game script) and tendencies of the Pittsburgh defense,3 Mixon is involved in the passing game and the Steelers give up much more production to RBs than their efficiency suggests. The Steelers have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points per game to opposing RBs, the fifth-most rushing yards per game, and fourth-most rushing TDs per game.

  •  Adrian Peterson ($6,300)

3x GPP Value Threshold: 18.9 fantasy points.

Vegas: The Cardinals are 3.5 point underdogs in London against the Rams in a 45.5 total with an implied team total of 21.

While people may think this is chasing points after last week, we have to understand two things about Peterson:

1. Opportunity: He can reach GPP value without needing 130 yards and two TDs as he is still just $6,300. I understand last week was the perfect game script for a between-the-tackles RB with the Cardinals taking a 24-0 lead by halftime. But Peterson saw 26 carries and 74 percent percent of the snaps after just one week of practice with the Cardinals. While Andre Ellington will remain the receiving RB, Peterson received five carries in the red zone. Touchdowns are the driving force on FanDuel.

2. Matchup: The Rams are turning into a run funnel defense. They are ninth in overall defense DVOA and sixth against the pass, but are just 22nd in run DVOA. So based on efficiency, we want to attack them by running the football. The production aligns with the lack of efficiency. The Rams have allowed the most fantasy points to RBs per game (29.05), the sixth-most rushing attempts per game, fourth-most rushing yards per game, and the most rushing TDs per game (1.17, next closest is 1).

Wide Receivers

  • Rishard Matthews ($5,500)

3x GPP Value Threshold: 16.5 fantasy points

Vegas: The Titans are six-point road favorites in Cleveland in a 45.5 total with an implied team total of 25.75.

TD Opportunity and matchup: While the Titans are a team that like to run with exotic smashmouth (31st in pass-to-run ratio), Matthews has tremendous TD opportunity in this matchup. Matthews is coming off of a nine-TD year but only has one TD so far this season. This can be the positive regression spot for Matthews, who has a 33 percent red zone target share (seventh) and a 23.6 percent target share (15th). Cleveland is allowing the sixth-most points per game (26.2), the highest completion percentage (72 percent), the most passing TDs (14), and the highest RACR (1.35). In terms of efficiency, the Browns are a pass funnel defense with a 25th overall defensive DVOA — 32nd against the pass but third against the run. They are 32nd against WR1s, 1st against WR2s, and 32nd against other WRs. I take that 1st against WR2s with a grain of salt considering the other numbers. While Cleveland is not surrendering too many total fantasy points or receiving yards to team WRs as a whole, they have given up the seventh-most TDs per game to WRs (1.17). It is easy to hit GPP value if a receiver this cheap catches TDs.

Efficiency: Using the RotoViz’s AYA App, of the Tennessee pass-catchers with more than 15 targets on the season, Matthews has the highest adjusted yards per pass attempt.

Screen Shot 2017-10-20 at 7.41.45 PM

  • John Brown ($5,900)

3x GPP Value Threshold: 17.7 fantasy points

Vegas: The Cardinals are 3.5 point underdogs in London against the Rams in a 45.5 total with an implied team total of 21.

Leverage: There will likely be high ownership on No. 2 overall fantasy WR Larry Fitzgerald, especially after he went for 10 receptions (11) targets, 138 yards, and a TD (22.8 fantasy points). With the Cardinals WRs, I like to fade the WR coming off a big game and go to the one who will quietly sneak under the radar.

Opportunity: Before last week when the Cardinals had a 24-0 halftime lead and only 22 pass attempts the entire game, Palmer threw for a minimum of 36 and a maximum of 51 pass attempts. Brown’s biggest concern isn’t volume but having just two red zone targets. However, since returning from injury three weeks ago, Brown has resumed the team’s WR2 role (80 and 72 percent of the snaps the past two weeks). He actually has 98 more air yards than Fitzgerald4 the past three weeks and TDs in back-to-back games.

Matchup: While the Rams are stronger against the pass and weaker against the run, they have allowed the seventh-highest RACR to opposing pass-catchers. The three TDs they have allowed to opposing WRs have all gone to secondary WRs.

  • Marqise Lee ($5,600)

3x GPP Value Threshold: 16.8 fantasy points

Vegas: The Jaguars are 3.5-point road favorites in Indianapolis in a 43.5 total with an implied team total of 23.5.

Opportunity: Since Week 2, Lee has two games with double-digit targets and has reached 65 or more receiving yards in three of five games. With Fournette not practicing at all this week, he will either be limited or ruled inactive. While Chris Ivory would be the biggest beneficiary of Fournette’s absence, Lee would be next in line due to a few extra pass attempts.

Matchup: The Colts are 29th in defensive DVOA, 27th against the pass, 20th against WR1s, 28th against WR2s, and 22nd against other WRs. They have allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to opposing WRs, seventh-most targets, eighth-most receptions, and fourth-most yards. Six WRs have a 85 yards or a TD in five games against the Colts.

  • Others Considered: Eric Decker ($5,100) – Coming off his best game of the season, but I’m worried he will become too chalky.

Tight Ends

  • George Kittle ($4,800)

Value Threshold: 14.4 fantasy points

Vegas: The 49ers are six-point home underdogs against the Cowboys in a 49 total with an implied team total of 21.5. This total has increased two points from its opening total of 47.

Opportunity: With Beathard taking over at QB, Kittle is reunited with his college QB and roommate at Iowa. After Beathard replaced Brian Hoyer in the second quarter last week, he targeted Kittle seven times. Kittle now has eight and nine targets over the past two games as well as four red zone targets in each game. His eight red zone targets and five red zone receptions are fourth and second among TEs.

Matchup: The Cowboys have surrendered 26.4 points per game (fourth most) and 339.8 yards per game (12th most). While they have not given up much total production to TEs, they also haven’t faced much TE competition (Evan Engram’s first NFL game, Broncos TEs, Cardinals TEs, Rams TEs, and disappointing Martellus Bennett). Yet Dallas is 30th in defensive DVOA, 23rd in pass defense DVOA, and 29th in DVOA against TEs.

  • Others Considered: Hunter Henry ($5,200) – Until they correct Henry’s price I’m going to play him every week. You attack Denver over the middle of the field (30th in DVOA against TEs; fifth most fantasy points per game to TEs).

Let me know which FanDuel GPP value plays you agree with, disagree with, or who I left out @Michael_Dubner

  1. Cash line for Week 6 = 120.9 points, value success formula = (6667/Player’s Salary)^1/3 * 2.02  (back)
  2. 0.1 fantasy points per rushing yard and 6 fantasy points per rushing TD vs 0.04 fantasy points per passing yard and four fantasy points per passing TD.  (back)
  3. DVOA suggests they are weakest against pass-catching RBs – 19th  (back)
  4. And 17th most in the NFL  (back)

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