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Early GLSP Projections – Houston Continues to Roll

On a weekly basis, I’ll use Game Level Similarity Projections to find players with surprising ranges of outcomes. Early in the week, I’ll post the results of my personal model with some quick commentary.

This will be followed up with an article that compares and contrasts these findings with those of the GLSP Apps on the site. For more information relating to the model, apps, and weekly fantasy application, check out the 2017 GLSP Primer.

Through eight weeks, the “average projections” calculated by the model, when compared to actual results, have an absolute difference of under five and a half points. This is very competitive when measured against subjective projections or those derived through other means. As a result, the “average projections” generated by the model serve as a pretty good proxy for a more traditional projection.

My QB GLSP has recorded an average absolute difference of under six and a half points. The RB and WR GLSPs have been off by an average absolute difference of less than five and a half points, and the TE GLSP by under five. As the focus of compiling GLSP projections is building a range of outcomes, I’ll take it.1

A Couple of Notes

I pulled Week 8 data Monday morning, so those results from Monday night’s game did not get included when running the model for Week 9. For this week’s pull, I limited the comparable matchups searched to 8 games. This means that the model is now looking at 2017 results only. Certain players whose health is questionable for the coming week have been omitted from the results.2

Quarterback

Deshaun Watson will storm into Week 9 with the highest ceiling of all passers and Dak Prescott follows closely behind with the strongest floor. Russell Wilson rounds out the top 3.

Jared Goff projects with a weak floor but a ceiling that ties for the week’s fifth best. The GLSP also thinks that Jacoby Brissett could surprise.

Tyrod Taylor will once again be a solid play for teams that stream and Trevor Siemian also draws consideration.

Matt Ryan has an alarming range of outcomes and is projected as a bottom-third option. Marcus Mariota and Andy Dalton are also expected to struggle; the GLSP cautions against starting them.3

PlayerTeamOppLowMedHighAVGWK RK
Dak PrescottDALKC202427238
Deshaun WatsonHOUIND172129239
Russell WilsonSEAWAS1419271911
Tyrod TaylorBUFNYJ1519211912
Alex SmithKCDAL1218241912
Carson WentzPHIDEN1518221812
Trevor SiemianDENPHI1417201813
Drew BreesNOTB1218211713
Jared GoffLARNYG1016221715
Jacoby BrissettINDHOU1216221714
Kirk CousinsWASSEA1214221617
Jameis WinstonTBNO1214171617
Cam NewtonCARATL1215181517
Derek CarrOAKMIA1014191516
Matthew StaffordDETGB1114191418
Matt RyanATLCAR1012161320
Andy DaltonCINJAX812151220
Blake BortlesJAXCIN711161220
Josh McCownNYJBUF812151220
Matt MooreMIAOAK613151221
Eli ManningNYGLAR613181218
CJ BeathardSFARI610151123
Marcus MariotaTENBAL511151023
Joe FlaccoBALTEN58131024
Brett HundleyGBDET3714825

Running Back

Ezekiel Elliott and Kareem Hunt will square off on Sunday and as you’d expect, fireworks are in the forecast. Todd Gurley should also have a day; his comparables averaged 20 points against defenses similar to the Giants.

Javorius Allen has a top-10 ceiling against the Titans and should be in lineups. Theo Riddick comes with a low floor but could be worth starting against the Packers.

Bilal Powell projects with a median of 12 points and looks like the Jets RB to own in Week 9.

Joe Mixon, Wayne Gallman, and Marlon Mack have climbed their way into flex consideration. All three project with ceilings of 11 points which places them in the top 36.

Giovani Bernard and LeGarrette Blount are forecasted with weak ranges of outcomes and should be played only in dire-straights.

PlayerTeamOppLowMedHighAVG ProjAvg WK RK
Todd GurleyLARNYG1418222013
Ezekiel ElliottDALKC1319251916
Kareem HuntKCDAL1417201914
Devonta FreemanATLCAR915201521
LeSean McCoyBUFNYJ915201422
Mark IngramNOTB812211422
Carlos HydeSFARI913161422
Javorius AllenBALTEN713191424
Lamar MillerHOUIND812201325
Chris ThompsonWASSEA612191327
Alvin KamaraNOTB911161229
DeMarco MurrayTENBAL711151227
Ty MontgomeryGBDET79111133
Bilal PowellNYJBUF512141132
TJ YeldonJAXCIN49141134
Adrian PetersonARISF38151038
Doug MartinTBNO610171034
Ameer AbdullahDETGB69121033
CJ AndersonDENPHI610131033
Frank GoreINDHOU611131033
Theo RiddickDETGB39141039
Christian McCaffreyCARATL4713939
Tevin ColemanATLCAR7913937
Aaron JonesGBDET4914938
Joe MixonCINJAX3611841
Deandre WashingtonOAKMIA4612839
Wayne GallmanNYGLAR3911842
Bobby RaineyBALTEN2610850
Tommy BohanonJAXCIN2812851
Elijah HoodOAKMIA0611852
Jay AjayiMIAOAK469743
Chris IvoryJAXCIN369745
Derrick HenryTENBAL259746
Matt ForteNYJBUF369744
Marlon MackINDHOU3511748
Jamaal CharlesDENPHI2410751
Lance DunbarLARNYG059757
Rob KelleyWASSEA148652
JD McKissicSEAWAS349648
Jalen RichardOAKMIA168554
Wendell SmallwoodPHIDEN347551
Orleans DarkwaNYGLAR147556
Giovani BernardCINJAX247552
Shane VereenNYGLAR138558
LeGarrette BlountPHIDEN236456
Jonathan StewartCARATL135460
Mike TolbertBUFNYJ136458
Devontae BookerDENPHI136463
Matt BreidaSFARI125462
Charles SimsTBNO036468
Elijah McGuireNYJBUF126461
Jacquizz RodgersTBNO236454
D'Onta ForemanHOUIND034365
Kyle JuszczykSFARI224364
Samaje PerineWASSEA024366
Alex CollinsBALTEN012275
Thomas RawlsSEAWAS002283
Eddie LacySEAWAS012280
Kerwynn WilliamsARISF022275
Damien WilliamsMIAOAK024278
Charcandrick WestKCDAL013278
Malcolm BrownLARNYG002282
Corey ClementPHIDEN003277
Terron WardATLCAR003279
Corey GrantJAXCIN012180
Jeremy HillCINJAX003180
Alfred MorrisDALKC002186
Dwayne WashingtonDETGB002182
Leonard FournetteJAXCIN1417221817

Wide Receiver

DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller will carry significant momentum into their matchup with the Colts. With ceilings of 29 and 24 points, Hopkins and Fuller project as the week’s strongest options at WR.

Michael Thomas is forecasted with a 27 point ceiling in his matchup with the Buccaneers. However, his floor is nine points. Ted Ginn will again be a solid WR3 or flex option and Brandon Coleman is expected to score between 8 and 15 points.

Jeremy Maclin has been a major disappointment but the GLSP is optimistic on his outlook against the Titans.

Randall Cobb could be in for a day against the Lions. Of course, it’s hard to know what to expect from the Packers receiving corps without Aaron Rodgers.

Paul Richardson has a floor of just three points but a ceiling of 16.  Mohamed Sanu, Kenny Stills, Cooper Kupp and Jermaine Kearse are also worth considering for your lowest WR or flex spot.

PlayerTeamOppLowMedHighAVG ProjAvg WK RK
DeAndre HopkinsHOUIND1722282215
Will FullerHOUIND1519242117
Mike EvansTBNO1217251825
Tyreek HillKCDAL1217231824
Michael ThomasNOTB917271733
Larry FitzgeraldARISF1216201628
Dez BryantDALKC813221537
Jarvis LandryMIAOAK713201437
Doug BaldwinSEAWAS711171339
Michael CrabtreeOAKMIA911171340
Davante AdamsGBDET813161337
Emmanuel SandersDENPHI1013161339
Marvin JonesDETGB616211344
JJ NelsonARISF712191340
AJ GreenCINJAX711161238
Jordy NelsonGBDET78161245
Ted GinnNOTB913151238
Golden TateDETGB813151240
Jeremy MaclinBALTEN710161244
DeSean JacksonTBNO59171148
Randall CobbGBDET510181149
Nelson AgholorPHIDEN410171147
TY HiltonINDHOU811141145
Paul RichardsonSEAWAS310161151
Brandon ColemanNOTB811151145
Kelvin BenjaminCARATL69131046
Amari CooperOAKMIA511131048
Alshon JefferyPHIDEN69111051
Devin FunchessCARATL610131048
Pierre GarconSFARI79131047
Mohamed SanuATLCAR59141050
Jermaine KearseNYJBUF510141048
Jaron BrownARISF69121050
Kenny StillsMIAOAK5813952
Allen HurnsJAXCIN6912953
John BrownARISF4811952
Cooper KuppLARNYG31014956
Robby AndersonNYJBUF6911952
Marquise GoodwinSFARI6812954
Sammy WatkinsLARNYG4512957
Bennie FowlerDENPHI5912954
Ryan GrantWASSEA2812960
Julio JonesATLCAR4813861
Demaryius ThomasDENPHI4712861
Rishard MatthewsTENBAL4710854
Robert WoodsLARNYG479860
Marqise LeeJAXCIN5711857
Jamison CrowderWASSEA5712863
Jordan MatthewsBUFNYJ5812857
Adam HumphriesTBNO4710862
Terrelle PryorWASSEA3811863
Donte MoncriefINDHOU3710766
Terrance WilliamsDALKC3711769
Albert WilsonKCDAL2410770
Trent TaylorSFARI2710762
Eric DeckerTENBAL567667
Tyler LockettSEAWAS468664
Brandon LaFellCINJAX359667
Cole BeasleyDALKC269670
Jeremy KerleyNYJBUF369671
TJ JonesDETGB369672
Bruce EllingtonHOUIND248674
Demarcus RobinsonKCDAL036584
Seth RobertsOAKMIA257575
Taywan TaylorTENBAL037583
Brice ButlerDALKC0012586
Chris MooreBALTEN037588
Andre HolmesBUFNYJ048583
Geronimo AllisonGBDET257579
Aldrick RobinsonSFARI127579
Josh DoctsonWASSEA035486
Taylor GabrielATLCAR236477
Roger LewisNYGLAR126487
Torrey SmithPHIDEN247483
Zay JonesBUFNYJ036489
Kamar AikenINDHOU027490
Russell ShepardCARATL025392
Cordarrelle PattersonOAKMIA134393
Chester RogersINDHOU224390
Josh MaloneCINJAX0043101
Justin HardyATLCAR025398
Mack HollinsPHIDEN025394
Willie SneadNOTB0052104
Keelan ColeJAXCIN0242102
John RossCINJAX005299
Tavon AustinLARNYG0232102
Travis RudolphNYGLAR024297
Leonte CarrooMIAOAK0122107
Chris GodwinTBNO0132104
Jordan TaylorDENPHI0232109
Alex EricksonCINJAX0032108
Breshad PerrimanBALTEN0021114
Tavarres KingNYGLAR0021108
Jared AbbrederisDETGB0021109
Amara DarbohSEAWAS0021109
Curtis SamuelCARATL0031108
Jakeem GrantMIAOAK0011116
Pharoh CooperLARNYG0011115

Tight End

Travis Kelce and Jason Witten are slated with the week’s strongest range of outcomes. Zach Ertz and Austin Seferian-Jenkins are also projected by the GLSP with optimistic outlooks.

Marcedes Lewis makes for a strong streamer with a ceiling of 15 points. Though he does have a low floor, his comparables averaged 10 points per game.

Austin Hooper could be a dangerous streaming option against the Panthers. He projects with a median outcome of just four points and ceiling of 6. A.J. Derby makes for a stronger option. He’s expected to accrue between four and 11 points.

PlayerTeamOppLowMedHighAVG ProjAvg WK RK
Travis KelceKCDAL1015241713
Jason WittenDALKC616231512
Zach ErtzPHIDEN813181412
Austin Seferian-JenkinsNYJBUF511171217
Jordan ReedWASSEA59131020
Evan EngramNYGLAR610141018
Marcedes LewisJAXCIN36151025
Jimmy GrahamSEAWAS4911823
Jared CookOAKMIA3711824
AJ DerbyDENPHI4711824
Tyler KroftCINJAX4510724
Benjamin WatsonBALTEN469725
OJ HowardTBNO4910723
Cameron BrateTBNO368633
Jack DoyleINDHOU269629
Vernon DavisWASSEA268631
Delanie WalkerTENBAL158536
Ed DicksonCARATL356532
Austin HooperATLCAR346533
Jonnu SmithTENBAL257537
Nick BoyleBALTEN238535
Anthony FasanoMIAOAK257530
Martellus BennettGBDET246439
George KittleSFARI147439
Julius ThomasMIAOAK035442
Eric EbronDETGB148439
Demetrius HarrisKCDAL248437
Nick O'LearyBUFNYJ024344
Coby FleenerNOTB023346
Tyler HigbeeLARNYG024347
Trey BurtonPHIDEN025347
Ryan GriffinHOUIND013250
Jermaine GreshamARISF023249
Darren FellsDETGB013251
Virgil GreenDENPHI013250
Stephen AndersonHOUIND013251
Luke WillsonSEAWAS012152

Spreadsheet Data and Average Stat Lines

In addition to compiling ranges of outcomes, my model also pulls the average stat lines from the comparable matchups generated. If you’d like to get a sense of how the included players could arrive at their projected averages, review the linked Google Sheet.

I compare the average projection for each player against my expectations and other available projections. This allows me to do a check and determine if anything odd may have occurred for a particular player. However, I don’t review the stat line generated for each. That’s my caveat that something could look weird, but the ranges of outcomes are reasonable, based on the GLSP exercise.

Here’s the Google Sheet!

  1. Not to mention, performances such as Joe Flacco’s negative three points in Week 3 are very hard to forecast but hurt the averages. Also, I haven’t removed players that got injured during the course of the game from these averages.  (back)
  2. Of course, there might be a couple of players whose status could change, or that I should have removed but missed.  (back)
  3. The model didn’t have enough relevant data to compile a worthwhile projection for Drew Stanton. As a result, he has been ommited from the table.  (back)

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