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FanDuel GPP Value Plays – Week 17

Each week I explore cheap players whose FanDuel price does not match the ceiling they offer, making them GPP value plays. In FanDuel GPPs, I recommend cheap players who will offer at least 3x value, providing salary relief for your remaining roster spots. These recommendations are for players on the main slate.

I will be looking at quarterbacks priced below $7,500, running backs and wide receivers below $6,500, and tight ends below $5,500. It is important to remember that these value recommendations are for GPPs (and not cash games), so we’re aiming for a hit rate above 20 percent.

Week 16 Review

  • Week 16 Results:1 Total = 2/7 (29 percent), QB = 0/1, RB = 1/2, WR = 0/3, TE = 1/1.
  • Year-to-Date Results:
    • Total = 40/112 (36 percent)
    • QB = 10/16 (63 percent)
    • RB = 15/32 (47 percent)
    • WR = 10/48 (21 percent)
    • TE = 5/16 (31 percent)

Week 17 GPP value plays

QUARTERBACKS

  • Matt Ryan ($7,400)

3x GPP Value Threshold: 22.2 fantasy points.

Vegas: Atlanta is a four-point home favorite versus Carolina in a 45 total with an implied team total of 24.5. Ryan checks important boxes as a home favorite with an implied team total of at least 24 points.

Opportunity: Ryan is a good FanDuel GPP value this week due to his low salary, the team’s motivation (Atlanta needs to win to make the playoffs), and his matchup. Ryan has just five games with multiple passing TDs, three games over 300 passing yards, and hasn’t eclipsed 20 FanDuel points this season. His sub-par performance this year will keep his ownership low.

Matchup: While Ryan hasn’t been a great fantasy asset, his best week came in Week 9 against the Panthers where he posted 19.42 FanDuel points on 313 passing yards and two TDs. Although Carolina is 10th in fantasy points allowed to QBs, they are 24th over the last four weeks. Their 24 passing TDs allowed is 11th most and nine of 15 QBs have thrown for multiple TDs. Ryan’s directional passer rating strengths match well with Carolina’s directional passer rating weaknesses:

Screen Shot 2017-12-28 at 11.41.02 PMScreen Shot 2017-12-28 at 11.41.09 PM

  • Others Considered: Jacoby Brissett ($6,600) – 19.52 FanDuel points the last time he played Houston. Now gets them at home.

Running Backs

  • Derrick Henry ($5,800)

3x GPP Value Threshold: 17.4 fantasy points.

Vegas: Tennessee is a three-point home favorite against Jacksonville in a 42 total with an implied team total of 22.5. Henry checks boxes as a home favorite.

Opportunity: With DeMarco Murray (torn MCL) either inactive or severely limited, Henry will see nearly all of the RB touches. Tennessee is highly motivated to win this game in order to make the playoffs and will lean on their young RB. Tennessee is 10th in run-to-pass ratio (44 percent) and sixth in red zone run-to-pass ratio (53 percent). Henry is 19th in red zone attempts (24) and will likely take over most (if not all) of Murray’s red zone role (20 attempts).2

Matchup: Jacksonville is locked into the three-seed, but HC Doug Marrone still claims the starters will play. Even if Marrone makes the mistake of playing starters the entire game, you attack Jacksonville on the ground. Jacksonville is first in pass defense DVOA, but 29th against the run and are 29th in yards per carry against (4.5). If the starters are benched for any portion of the game that is an added bonus to Henry’s outlook. Even in a timeshare in Week 2, Henry went 14-92-1 against the Jaguars. Roughly 20 touches as a median projection, red zone usage, and potentially playing against backups makes Henry my top FanDuel GPP value.

  • Malcolm Brown ($4,500)

3x GPP Value Threshold: 13.5 fantasy points.

Vegas: The L.A. Rams are three-point home underdogs in a 44 total with an implied team total of 20.5.

Opportunity: The Rams have already announced that Todd Gurley and Jared Goff will not play. Brown is next in line on the Rams depth chart. In 2017, Brown has 49 attempts for 192 yards (3.9 ypc) and one TD along with five receptions on six targets. While the offense may change this week, the Rams are seventh in run-to-pass ratio (45 percent). And although two key offensive linemen are already ruled out, Brown should see 15 touches at the stone minimum salary.

Matchup: San Francisco is white hot and Jimmy Garoppolo (aka Jimmy Football) is the best thing since Michael Vick in Madden 2004. The 49ers are a tougher matchup with their offensive firepower and their run defense tightening up (fourth most fantasy points to RBs this season but sixth fewest over the last four weeks). They are allowing 3.8 yards per carry (seventh) and 3.7 over the last four weeks. So this isn’t a juicy matchup, but with his touch projection at minimum price, Brown makes for good FanDuel GPP value.

  • Others Considered: Wayne Gallman ($5,100) – The Giants should continue to give the rookie the most RB touches to evaluate him before the offseason. He has 16.3 touches over his last three games and faces a Washington defense allowing the seventh-most FanDuel point to RBs.

Wide Receivers

  • Josh Doctson ($5,800)

3x GPP Value Threshold: 17.4 fantasy points.

Vegas: Washington is a three-point road favorite against the N.Y. Giants in a 39.5 total with an implied team total of 21.25.

Opportunity: Doctson’s targets spiked last week to a career high 13. He has six or more targets in four of seven games, including nine red zone targets and three TDs over that span. Over that same stretch, Doctson is second on the team in target share (20 percent) and first in air yards (33 percent). His 653 air yards since Week 10 is 16th among WRs. While the Redskins are eliminated from playoff contention, Doctson seems motivated to perform well in order to prove why he was a first round pick. Just as important, Kirk Cousins is motivated to earn a contract this offseason.

Matchup: The Giants have allowed the ninth-most fantasy points to WRs, but have fallen apart over the last four weeks allowing the third most. They have surrendered the most passing TDs (32) and are 16th in air yards allowed They have allowed eight WRs to score in their past four games, including Doctson in Week 12. The team is more interested in losing to secure the No. 2 pick in next year’s draft.

  • Mohamed Sanu ($5,600)

3x GPP Value Threshold: 16.8 fantasy points.

Vegas: Atlanta is a four-point home favorite versus Carolina in a 45 total with an implied team total of 24.5.

Opportunity: Sanu has six or more targets in seven of 15 games (47 percent) and at least one red zone target in eight games (53 percent). He is second on the team in red zone targets (11 vs Julio Jones’ 19) and 17th in the NFL in red zone receptions.

Leverage: Sanu is in a good spot for all the same reasons Jones is. While I’m not advocating fading Jones, if you do have a lineup without him, Sanu will provide leverage off of Jones’ ownership.

Matchup: Carolina is allowing the fifth-most FanDuel points to WRs this season, including the fifth-most targets, third-most receptions, fifth-most yards, and sixth-most TDs to the position.  In the matchup against Carolina earlier this year, Sanu had 3-3-23-1 (9.8 FanDuel points). Last week, Carolina’s secondary helped Mike Evans get out of his slump (8-6-107) and teammate Chris Godwin had a strong game (98 yards). In Weeks 9-15, nine WRs went over 100 yards and/or a scored TD against Carolina.

  • Mike Wallace ($5,600)

3x GPP Value Threshold: 16.8 fantasy points.

Vegas: Baltimore is a 10-point home favorite against Cincinnati in a 40 total with an implied team total of 25.

Opportunity: Wallace has six or more targets in five of his last seven games. During that span, he has at least one red zone target in five games and 85 yards or a TD in four games. Since Week 9, he leads the team in targets (20 percent target share) and air yards (36 percent market share).

Matchup: While Cincinnati is third in FanDuel points allowed to WRs this year, they have been softer over the last four weeks where they are 11th. They are seventh in passing TDs allowed (18), but six have come over the last four weeks. Since Week 13, the Bengals are 26th in explosive pass rate allowed.

  • Others Considered: Kenny Golladay ($5,000) – Saw eight targets and played 95 percent of the snaps last week. The team may try to keep the rookie involved in Week 17 to evaluate him.

Tight Ends

  • Jack Doyle ($5,400)

3x GPP Value Threshold: 16.2 fantasy points.

Vegas: Indianapolis is a four-point home favorite against Houston in a 41 total with an implied team total of 22.5. Doyle checks boxes as a home favorite TE.

Opportunity: Doyle is tied for the highest target share (24 percent), is sixth in targets (103), second in receptions (76), sixth in receiving yards, first in Receiver Air Conversion Ratio (RACR) among TEs with at least 40 targets, and sixth in Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR). He is priced as the TE19.

Matchup: At this point I don’t need to say how banged up Houston’s defense is. They have allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to TEs and sixth most TDs (eight). Doyle had 9-8-63 earlier this year against the Texans. Four of the other six respectable TEs to face Houston (Rob Gronkowski, Delanie Walker, Travis Kelce, Jimmy Graham) went over 13.5 FanDuel points, and the two (Tyler Eifert, Delanie Walker) to go under that threshold occurred in the first four weeks of the season when the Texans defense was healthier.

  • Others Considered: Cameron Brate ($5,000) – always has TD upside when Jameis Winston plays, but I’m not comfortable with Brate’s health.

Find me on Twitter @Michael_Dubner for more fantasy football and FanDuel talk.

  1. Cash line for Week 16 = 123.18 points, value success formula = (6667/Player’s Salary)^1/3 * 2.05  (back)
  2. Melvin  Gordon leads the NFL with 45 red zone attempts.  (back)

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