QB streaming advice for Week 15 and the postseason of the 2017 fantasy football season.
Week 14 QB Streaming Recap
I feel like I say it every year, but this season has delivered more devastating injuries than most. And this week was no exception. After career seasons, both Josh McCown (hand) and Carson Wentz (knee) suffered season-ending injuries in Week 14. Wentz leaves the Philadelphia Eagles, who appeared on their way to Super Bowl 52, without their MVP. It doesn’t end there – both the Bills’ quarterbacks Tyrod Taylor (knee) and Nathan Peterman (concussion) are trying to return from injury, and Marcus Mariota suffered a sprained left knee, though coach Mike Mularkey says it’s not serious. These injuries don’t only affect the players and their franchises’ playoff hopes, but fantasy owners’ postseason aspirations as well.
My week felt equally solemn. Jimmy Garoppolo is now 2-0 as the 49ers starting quarterback and had as successful a game as Jameis Winston (while Winston has much more talent around him). Meanwhile, Blaine Gabbert continues to decline the longer he remains a starter. My streamer miss was Brett Hundley, who put up QB4 numbers and kept the Green Bay Packers playoff hopes alive for another week (though it will likely be his last week as a starting QB this season).
|Status||QB||FanDuel Points||QB Rank|
|1QB Option||Jameis Winston||16.4||15|
|2QB Option 1||Jimmy Garoppolo||16.1||18|
|2QB Option 2||Blaine Gabbert||8.3||30|
For Wentz owners in particular, now is not the time to wallow in your sorrows. Rather, it’s time to focus and leverage the “next man up” mentality. If you can win in Week 2 by streaming a quarterback, you can win in Week 15. And there are still plenty of fish in free agency.
Whether you’re ready or not, it’s playoff season, and I am here to help. This week, we’re changing things up, and I’m giving my top starts and sits based on the RotoViz QB Streamers Week 15 message board.
Things to note: Santa came early for Wentz owners who may find Aaron Rodgers available on the wire. He should be owned in 100 percent of leagues, though his matchup against Carolina won’t make for the easiest return. Next up, if Case Keenum is available, you take him – for all the reasons I mentioned in my Week 13 post and then some.
Game Level Similarity Projections are taken from Dave Caban’s model. The Player Projection Distributions are taken from the site’s GLSP app. These are great sources to cross-check for the range of likely QB outcomes.
QB STREAMING ADVICE FOR WEEK 15
QB Starts in Week 15
QB Option 1: Blake Bortles vs. Houston
Game-Level Similarity Projection: 17.1
FanDuel Salary: $7,400
There is a significant love/hate relationship with Blake Bortles in the fantasy community. He’s not a particularly good QB, and certainly not a consistent one, but the Jaguars have slowly added assets to both the offense and defense that make it almost impossible for Bortles to fail. While many of us assumed he’d be benched by now, Bortles has led the team into playoff contention and has reached his peak fantasy production the last two weeks, passing for a combined 577 yards and two touchdowns. His last few matchups of the season take that potential one step further, starting with his Week 15 matchup against a 20th-ranked Houston Texans defense that has given up the fifth-most fantasy points to QBs this season.
End of season schedule: vs. Hou, at SF, at Ten
QB Option 2: Jimmy Garoppolo vs. Tennessee
Game-Level Similarity Projection: 18.8
FanDuel Salary: $7,300
If you can’t stomach Bortles, what about New England bred Garoppolo? In just two starts, Garoppolo has taken the 49ers to a 2-0 record and has quickly become more expensive (thus more valuable) on FanDuel than Joe Flacco. Garoppolo has now racked up 627 passing yards in those two starts – the most by any QB in their first two starts in franchise history – and averaging 8.96 Y/A with a receiving corp of mostly unknowns.
The only thing Garoppolo is missing is TDs. He has just one passing score in those two games, which hopefully means he’s due for some positive regression. Garoppolo will get the opportunity for his first multi-score game against the Titans, who have allowed 22 passing scores this season, including three four-TD games. While it might seem risky to start a guy in the playoffs who’s played in just two games on the season, he’s proven to have a high floor that should get you at least 15 points.
It’s important to note: If you’ve decided to go the Garoppolo route, he won’t take you past this week. The Niners host the Jaguars in Week 16, and we just saw what the Jags defense did to Seattle. That matchup would not be well advised as a championship start.
End of season schedule: vs. Ten, vs. Jax, @LAR
QB Option 3: Nick Foles vs. Giants
Game-Level Similarity Projection: N/A*
FanDuel Salary: $6,000
So this is what it comes down to – it’s up to Nick Foles to save the Eagles’ dream season. You might remember him for his 2013 performance with Philadelphia that made Chip Kelly look like an offensive mastermind. He had 27 TDs, just two interceptions, and averaged 6.6 Y/A. But then, you might remember him for his disastrous 2015 season (7 TDs, 10 INTs) in St. Louis that catapulted him to the backup position – until now.
Since Foles doesn’t have anywhere near the mobility that Wentz had, the Eagles will likely focus their efforts on their run game. The good news for fantasy owners is that he has strong matchups ahead of him. This week he faces the Giants, which will encourage him to lean on his returning tight-end Zach Ertz,1 and next week he gets the Raiders, who most recently gave up 26 points to the Chiefs. If you have to start him, now is the time. It won’t be the MVP Wentz owners had come to rely on, but there is an opportunity here.
End of season schedule: @NYG, vs. Oak, vs. Dal
*GLSP is predictive based on historical averages. With no historical NFL data of Foles this season, GLSP does not yet apply.
QB Sits in Week 15
Joe Flacco vs. Cleveland
Game-Level Similarity Projection: 16.8
FanDuel Salary: $6,800
I’ve seen too many positive words about Joe Flacco this week. I’ve fallen victim to it before, but not in playoff-mode. You do not want Joe Flacco to be your means of survival in the postseason. He hasn’t had one 300-yard or three-TD game this season and has almost as many interceptions as touchdowns (13:12 TD:INT ratio). While he has had some production in the last two weeks and faces one of the worst defenses in the league (25th overall, 29th versus the pass), I’m still not biting. The Ravens survive by their running game and will continue to leverage it throughout the remainder of the season. Regardless of how deep your league is, there are better options than Joe Flacco out there. Take them.
End of season schedule: @ Cle, vs. Ind, vs. Cin
- the Giants have given up the most fantasy points to the TE position (back)