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NASCAR DFS Picks, Fades, Projections for New Hampshire

Before we get to my NASCAR DFS picks, I want to point out we have a new midseason price for the NASCAR package. It’s only $69 for the remaining 17 races. That’s basically $4 per slate! After last week’s multiple big winners, and my wins the previous two weeks, the NASCAR package is on fire. We’ll look to continue that this weekend at New Hampshire.

The race at New Hampshire is the only one at the 1-mile flat track this year, after it’s second date was given to Las Vegas Motor Speedway. The race was originally scheduled for 2pm ET on Sunday, but has been moved up an hour to 1pm due to threatening weather. As usual, I’ll give you all my NASCAR DFS picks and projections, and the NASCAR DFS Multi-Lineup OptimizerSim Scores, and Splits will be updated shortly after this article publishes.

I will have RotoViz Live posted by 7pm PT tonight at rotoviz.com/live. Be sure to get your questions in by then using #RVLive on Twitter.

In addition to my NASCAR DFS picks, be sure to check out my NASCAR betting piece at the Action Network.

If you’re new to daily fantasy NASCAR, or simply need a refresher, check out the flat track section of my track types article. Brush up on your general GPP strategy and game theory if you want to have a shot at taking down first place. If you’re more of a cash game player, check out how to target high floor drivers, and remember to find any potential race dominators.

Let’s get to the NASCAR DFS picks, rankings, and projections for New Hampshire!

NASCAR DFS MODEL PROJECTIONS FOR New Hampshire

The model projections assume that the driver finishes the race – hence why you don’t see any average finishing positions worse than about 32nd. The Pts column shows the average projected DraftKings points for races when the driver finishes the race.

DriverStartFinishLLFLPtsSalOwn
Kurt Busch18.7923.7710.8038.77850013.1%
Martin Truex Jr27.5955.8134.4461.991130051.2%
Kyle Busch38.8861.4338.2763.731160031.3%
Denny Hamlin49.446.5825.5443.541000016.3%
Ryan Blaney58.9824.3414.2344.24860012.9%
Brad Keselowski67.3120.1810.9245.88970016.7%
Erik Jones714.632.846.6525.77820012.4%
Alex Bowman813.143.068.5930.77700012.8%
Daniel Suarez916.470.551.2320.80710011.5%
Chase Elliott1014.121.284.9728.56890011.4%
William Byron1115.800.572.0024.54600021.5%
Paul Menard1215.630.611.8825.83660013.3%
Aric Almirola1314.771.867.3331.59830013.2%
Kevin Harvick149.9062.1628.3367.901100046.7%
Clint Bowyer1511.589.529.4342.94920012.1%
AJ Allmendinger1621.280.350.7017.8762009.6%
Austin Dillon1719.480.321.2022.71770010.8%
Ryan Newman1818.020.351.4226.76790011.4%
Joey Logano1910.648.7910.3049.07940031.9%
Kyle Larson208.4911.9610.3055.16990021.5%
Jimmie Johnson2113.011.537.8943.30870033.4%
Jamie McMurray2218.930.120.6128.47730013.4%
Ricky Stenhouse Jr2317.721.881.9733.02740026.6%
Chris Buescher2422.070.060.4624.10570011.1%
Ty Dillon2527.330.080.4514.58550025.1%
Kasey Kahne2622.570.300.6825.27640014.7%
Bubba Wallace2721.680.140.8728.11590015.4%
Matt DiBenedetto2828.780.040.5614.7350006.8%
Michael McDowell2924.170.190.7225.0752008.2%
David Ragan3023.230.020.5127.81540017.0%
Matt Kenseth3123.150.282.2529.89680028.1%
Ross Chastain3230.500.000.6215.3251004.7%
Corey Lajoie3331.770.000.5613.7349002.7%
Landon Cassill3431.350.000.5115.5647002.6%
Kyle Weatherman3532.230.000.3814.7445003.4%
BJ McLeod3632.220.000.3715.7448002.2%
Blake Jones3732.750.000.3715.6946002.9%

Now on to the NASCAR DFS picks!

NASCAR DFS PICKS – CASH GAMES

Martin Truex Jr. ($11,300) — Truex starts second on Sunday alongside pole-sitter Kurt Busch. I don’t expect Truex to grab the lead on the initial start, since Kurt Busch is the best restarter in the Cup series in 2018, but I do expect Truex to take the lead shortly after. Truex posted the best average speed in final practice, and also the the second-best 10-lap average.

Kevin Harvick ($11,000) — Harvick comes in at a discount to both Truex and Busch, and will start from the 14th position Sunday. That gives him plenty of place differential potential, and we should consider him a dominator candidate as well. Harvick posted the fastest consecutive 10-lap average, and as Ryan from ifantasyrace.com notes, Harvick’s fourth-place final practice overall average speed came on significantly more laps than the other three drivers ahead of him, meaning Harvick made longer runs than those in front of him. Thus, maintaining fourth on the leaderboard in that category is really like a first-place effort. Harvick and Truex should be the top two cars to beat.

Jimmie Johnson ($8700) — Johnson hasn’t been a sexy play as of late, but this weekend I think he’s a fine cash game play. He starts 21st, is at one of his lowest price points of the year, and has shown good speed in practice (ninth in average speed in final practice). Johnson has the 13th best driver rating over the last eight flat track races, and the seventh best New Hampshire driver rating since 2016. He’ll move forward for sure, and has the right combination of floor and upside that you want in a cash game play.

NASCAR DFS PICKS – GPPS 

Joey Logano ($9400) — I think plenty of people will pick Kyle Larson simply for the fact that Larson starts 20th and is Kyle freaking Larson. But give me Logano, starting 19th, at a $500 discount, on a flat track. Logano’s and Larson have nearly identical statistics over the last eight flat track races, but the kicker is the cars themselves this weekend. Logano didn’t post a 10-lap average in any practice session, but did post the fourth-best average speed over 31 total laps in final practice. Larson, on the other hand, posted middling 10-lap times in both Saturday sessions, and didn’t show up on the top-10 overall average speed chart

NOTE about the remaining GPP picks below: I talked about my GPP strategy on the Friday preview show. The names I’m giving here are meant to fit that theme. With rain in the picture, I’m looking at drivers on the outside of the playoff picture who might use strategy to pull off an unlikely win, or at least earn a very strong finish and help in the points. Both of these two drivers have shown enough speed in certain data points to remain on the lead lap, or no more than one lap down, and could pull off a strong finish with some good fortune. One other final note about these next three drivers: I’d play no more than two per lineup, leaning a bit more toward one if you’re multi-entering.

Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. ($7400) — Stenhouse didn’t post a very fast 10-lap average, but he was 10th overall in the final practice average speed chart over 30 total laps. That means he made a bunch of shorter runs. New Hampshire often comes down to short-run speed, and with weather in the forecast, there could be some more mayhem than usual as drivers push hard for track position, not knowing if the race will end early.

William Byron ($6000) — Byron qualified 11th, which isn’t so far forward that it scares me off of him. Byron ended up eighth on the average speed chart, and that’s made even more impressive by the fact that he was on old tires for much of the session (and posted really strong times while on those old tires). Shorter flat tracks were Byron’s bread and butter in the lower series. He scored wins at Iowa and Phoenix in the Xfinity series, and Iowa and New Hampshire in the truck series. He also has wins at the larger flat tracks of Indy (Xfinity) and Pocono (trucks).

One other name I want to note is Daniel Suarez, who I think will be under-owned. I like him as an overweight play, but don’t go crazy. He does start ninth, which is pretty far forward. But the Toyotas have shown speed, Suarez has posted times good enough to hang in the top-12, and with some fortune he could pull off a top-six finish. At $7100, that would get him in the winning lineup.

NASCAR DFS NEW HAMPSHIRE FADES

Chase Elliott ($8900) — Elliott’s car was all over the place in final practice, going from bad, to better, to terrible, to normal. That’s a bit scary to have a car that sensitive. He may have to work the brakes and tires harder, putting him at greater risk of a brake failure or tire blowout than other drivers. He was also slow, posting only the 22nd best single and 18th best 10-lap speed in final practice.

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