Team RotoViz gathered at headquarters recently where among other things, we held a mock MFL10 draft. We’ll have some more content soon, but here are some quick thoughts from our analysts regarding player values and draft strategy.
Neil Dutton – Pick 1.01
Faced with the prospect of the first overall pick, I went with Todd Gurley (as I did in the Scott Fish Bowl). While a large part of Gurley’s success in 2017 was as a receiver, I believe that the Rams will find themselves in many situations where they can lean on Gurley on the ground as well — especially now that they’ve shown him the money. I was also ecstatic to land Tyrell Williams as late as I did. He could easily be one of the biggest beneficiaries of the Hunter Henry injury. He makes a cheaper way to get a piece of that offense than drafting Keenan Allen.
John Lapinski – Pick 1.02
Do you remember how hyped Tyler Lockett was after his electric rookie year? After an injury-plagued 20161 and a 2017 season where he was reportedly not fully recovered from his injuries, Lockett finally enters training camp healthy as a locked in starter for the Seahawks. With the departures of Paul Richardson and Jimmy Graham, Lockett is set to take on his biggest role yet catching passes from Russell Wilson, a QB whose extreme efficiency has enabled his receivers to do plenty of damage even with limited targets. In a draft like this where I only grabbed one WR in my first five picks, Lockett made an ideal target in the double-digit rounds as a guy who has a chance to outperform his WR60 price tag by a wide margin and provide several big weeks.
Jeremy Marin – Pick 1.03
I expected this draft to be different since it was comprised of RotoViz writers, but it surprised me from the get-go. Fortunately, sticking to a Zero RB strategy did not kill my roster as much as I had thought it might in the beginning. Filling out the roster with high upside later running backs helped me build a roster where my sixth WR is Julian Edelman, my TE is Greg Olsen, and my QBs are Cam Newton and Andrew Luck.
Kevin Zatloukal – Pick 1.04
Given the love for Zero RB within this group, I expected to zig while others zagged by following a Zero WR strategy in this draft. Having the 1.04 was the perfect setup for this as well, with a big tier drop in RBs at that point. Surprisingly, that is not at all what happened. Other than grabbing Mark Ingram who was undervalued at 5.04, I ended up following a Zero RB approach myself, grabbing Chris Thompson, Nyheim Hines, and James White as my RB3-5 in Rounds 7, 10, and 12. If even RotoViz Writers are loading up on RBs early — leaving values like Adam Thielen and Golden Tate available in Rounds 3 and 4 — expect the early-RB trend to be prominent in almost every other drafts.
Tod Burros – Pick 1.05
I think my team came out very well so and is very balanced due to a lot of players falling more than usual in this draft. I ended up with players like Evan Engram in the seventh round and Tarik Cohen in the ninth. I think Tom Brady in the eighth is a steal. I don’t own much of them in my portfolio of MFL10s, but here they were available a round or two later than ADP. My biggest reach was Corey Davis a round earlier than ADP. It’s risky for a fifth-round pick but he’s also probably my favorite breakout candidate. I would not be shocked at all if he is a second round pick this time next year.
Eric Moody – Pick 1.06
My plan going into the draft was to attack the running back position in the first five rounds. I ended up with Alvin Kamara, Devonta Freeman, Joe Mixon, Jay Ajayi, and LeSean McCoy. My favorite RB pick was Freeman at the 2.07. He is only one season removed from an RB6 finish and is an excellent bounce-back candidate. My goal for the wide receiver and tight ends positions were to draft players projected to see a 17 percent or higher target share. Jamison Crowder, Randall Cobb, and Kelvin Benjamin are all excellent values heading into the season and, in my opinion, are positioned to outperform their average draft position.
Jeff Matson – Pick 1.07
I liked getting Christian McCaffrey midway through the second round. He’s going to do Danny Woodhead things for Norv Turner. I got Zach Ertz, the last of the top tier TEs in the fourth round, passing on Rashaad Penny as I already had three backs.
Cort Smith – Pick 1.08
This is something of a modified Zero RB approach which I fell into after my WR targets were cleared out on the turn and Leonard Fournette was still there. With his workhorse volume secured, I felt free to focus on other positions for much of the draft. Tyreek Hill and Brandin Cooks bring some high-end variance, and I was surprised to be able to land guys like Pierre Garcon and Rishard Matthews as depth. Marshawn Lynch and Tevin Coleman should be able to plug in some solid RB2 numbers between them, while Austin Ekeler and Chase Edmonds provide some antifragility to this poor-man’s version of a Zero RB roster.
Colm Kelly – Pick 1.09
TheFFGhost – Pick 1.10
After drawing the ten spot in this draft I was pleasantly surprised when Kareem Hunt fell to me. At the turn, I doubled up with Melvin Gordon. I was able to secure three top 25 players with the addition of Aaron Rodgers at pick 3.10, admittedly an accident due to some clock and time zone issues, but I rolled with the pick nonetheless. My biggest reach was Sterling Shepard at pick 6.03 as I started to panic a little bit due to my weakness at wide receiver. As I got on the clock it was being rumored that Shepard could see a significant bump in targets this season, so the pick wasn’t without some merit. Nonetheless, I may have opted for more reliable options that were still available to me at that point. The biggest value, in my eyes, would be Robby Anderson at the 7.10 pick as I believe he could finish the year as a top 10 receiver.
Matt Wispe – Pick 1.11
I selected two QBs that I am confident will provide top 12 production on a weekly basis with a safe floor and high ceiling in Patrick Mahomes and Alex Smith. I ended up making the decision to punt tight end and took Mike Gesicki in the 14th round and plan on adding two others late. As for my strategy, I started with four top-20 WRs and then added RBs who I believe are undervalued in the format. Getting a top-12 PPR back (Duke Johnson) in the seventh round gives me enough security at the position to ensure consistent production. I’m happy with the start of my draft, but I think I made enough errors to cost me a win.
Dave Caban – Pick 1.12
I normally love being at the 1.12 and while I was excited about starting off with Keenan Allen and Davante Adams, things really got away from me after that. I do believe that Kenyan Drake and Alex Collins posses solid ranges of outcomes, but I don’t feel confident in my running back corps and my wide receiver stable suffered as a result of these picks. What I’m left with is a team with no apparent strength. In a league in which I’d want to play a WR in the flex, I wish I had added one more Tier 3 or better WR before going RB.
- PCL tear in Week 2 that limited him the rest of the season and then a broken leg in Week 16. (back)