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A Complete Set of 2018 Projections

Throughout the last month, we worked our way through each division to create a set of projections for 2018 season. In this post, we’ll put all of these projections together.

As I harped upon in the introductory article and mention on nearly every episode of RotoViz Radio, projections are just a single input into a broader decision making process. Resist getting married to these or any projections. They are just best guesses, that in some cases lack context, don’t address a player’s range of outcomes or speak to his downside/upside. I’d highly recommend checking out the historical projections included in the stat explorer.

While building these projections, I did my best to think critically, question my biases, be objective, and work out what I view to be the most likely outcomes for each player. I’m fully expecting a number of my projections to be horribly wrong. That’s fine and it’s part of the process. I’m less concerned with pinpoint accuracy and more focused on understanding what we can reasonably expect from a player and the variables that can greatly impact his 2018 production. This was a an extremely useful exercise in helping me develop expectations of each player’s range of outcomes for the coming season.

If you don’t want to go through the process of projecting each team, I’d still recommend that you play around with the projection machine. You’ll learn a lot, and if you strongly disagree with my projections, you can gain an understanding of the things that would need to happen in order for your expectations to be realized. Feel free to share your projections on the forums and let me know where I am way off.

As we build toward the season, I’ll post updated projections.1

 

Use the export options to download the projections.

A Deeper Dive Into Each Division

For further details on how I developed my initial projections for each team, refer to the divisional articles.

AFC East     AFC North     AFC South     AFC West

NFC East     NFC North     NFC South    NFC West

Quarterback

PlayerTeamPtsCompAttYdsTDIntAttYdsTD
Russell WilsonSEA31435555440152911844622
Aaron RodgersGB2993745753995337291471
Cam NewtonCAR298307515346426161195945
Tom BradyNE295380565442032833430
Carson WentzPHI28935157039623013672702
Patrick MahomesKC28536456244302415582912
Drew BreesNO2784105654514281133331
Tyrod TaylorCLE27636255339302310612753
Deshaun WatsonHOU27532454137372614552474
Alex SmithWAS2753665604058238542452
Jared GoffLAR2743475304292281028561
Marcus MariotaTEN27332051237702613553282
Ben RoethlisbergerPIT2723975924605281321430
Andrew LuckIND27136656842652715341521
Kirk CousinsMIN27136855042872412471402
Sam BradfordARI2443745854240221416162
Andy DaltonCIN26934552040602612421272
Matthew StaffordDET26137458043422413371201
Jameis WinstonTB2563535804337241724842
Matt RyanATL25537354543732413301070
Philip RiversLAC2543725854304271417330
Dak PrescottDAL25032450034752313562813
Eli ManningNYG2443655754060271516320
Ryan TannehillMIA24336258039132315381691
Jimmy GaroppoloSF2403876004237241429290
Blake BortlesJAX23831653534392117613982
Case KeenumDEN23733855037092212411222
Mitch TrubiskyCHI23533854536062114472132
Derek CarrOAK2283205203740241333980
Joe FlaccoBAL2173696083806211521531
Josh McCownNYJ21033659037931715341201
Josh AllenBUF17227448230311518321272

Running Back

PlayerTeamPtsAttYdsTDTargetsRecYdsTD
Le'Veon BellPIT374315141510107856913
David JohnsonARI3322801176999677004
Todd GurleyLAR31231614231164483823
Alvin KamaraNO277193886785685424
Ezekiel ElliottDAL27531813681050353152
Saquon BarkleyNYG2752631053886634722
Melvin GordonLAC2702731036970534213
Kareem HuntKC2692571106873554382
Dalvin CookMIN257246986783584622
Christian McCaffreyCAR2471736933103725775
Jerick McKinnonSF243231924678554203
Leonard FournetteJAX2322961183943322221
Devonta FreemanATL230191803865494022
Joe MixonCIN224232952662473981
Alex CollinsBAL2212411034761402961
LeSean McCoyBUF2182641135653362671
Mark IngramNO216207951945352541
Jay AjayiPHI2042801118834231511
Lamar MillerHOU202229914549392922
Royce FreemanDEN2002711085739251881
Dion LewisTEN200159685461483594
Tevin ColemanATL199179750649363403
Marlon MackIND193232926545322702
Rex BurkheadNE188207848545342782
Tarik CohenCHI183112436287654523
Kenyan DrakeMIA181188750552372742
Jordan HowardCHI1792491023733211380
Derrick HenryTEN177218939720151382
Rashaad PennySEA176181722639292043
Marshawn LynchOAK169246986631211320
Chris ThompsonWAS16866304278564524
Ronald JonesTB155208790441261931
Aaron JonesGB153155715440281692
Isaiah CrowellNYJ153215903530191400
Sony MichelNE148160655434252082
Duke JohnsonCLE14749196072585183
Giovani BernardCIN142114456252393322
Kerryon JohnsonDET142164624535251781
Samaje PerineWAS140195739534221420
Devontae BookerDEN139118470255363222
Matt BreidaSF138126504254352812
CJ AndersonCAR12517871351510741
Jamaal WilliamsGB12517268952316970
Theo RiddickDET12358193064483833
Carlos HydeCLE120126506433231631
Ty MontgomeryGB11763252158383612
Chris CarsonSEA114139554517121001
Doug MartinOAK113163602326171101
Latavius MurrayMIN11016365141712870
Bilal PowellNYJ11086361247322411
Nyheim HinesIND10976288140302683
TJ YeldonJAX108102439232241662
James WhiteNE10771282140302523
Peyton BarberTB10615260841712910
Nick ChubbCLE1041716854117410
Darren SprolesPHI10358249340262202
Tavon AustinDAL10228126255332643
Elijah McGuireNYJ10295369044302262
Javorius AllenBAL101118473143281381
D'Onta ForemanHOU10013754831612911
Austin EkelerLAC9783330229221762
Chris IvoryBUF96137573224161070
Seahawks RB3SEA861767050372433
Kalen BallageMIA8541173137272192
LeGarrette BlountDET81106445564250
Frank GoreMIA8010941331712860
Chase EdmondsARI7480320129201540
Spencer WareKC7475321222171260
Corey ClementPHI687731621711721
Malcolm BrownLAR62933722118520
Jordan WilkinsIND5280336264290
Rod SmithDAL516626211511730
Raiders RB3OAK49238112114912
Wayne GallmanNYG487329201712710
Kenneth DixonBAL414216902416870
Rob KelleyWAS4074281164250
Jaguars RB3JAX3851204253260
Saints RB3NO3538162264270
Jaylen SamuelsPIT3143179164290
Giants RB3NYG2853211064240
Alfred BlueHOU2632128154280
49ers RB3SF2634134164270
Buccaneers RB3TB2516611128550
Rams RB3LAR2328112154240
Chargers RB3LAC2341165064280
Bengals RB3CIN2234128132130
Bears RB3CHI212286154230
Broncos RB3DEN202386164230
James ConnerPIT194718700000
Ito SmithATL162697054240
Panthers RB3CAR152594053230
Cardinals RB3ARI142080064250
Buffalo RB3BUF132380053180
Titans RB3TEN9239105000
Chiefs RB3KC8417064260
Vikings RB3MIN493706000

Wide Receiver

PlayerTeamPtsTargetsRecYdsTDRushYdsRush TD
Antonio BrownPIT340180119160410000
DeAndre HopkinsHOU305173104143310000
Michael ThomasNO30015311313778000
Keenan AllenLAC28516411113377000
Odell Beckham JrNYG28215093125111000
Julio JonesATL2801539815145000
AJ GreenCIN2731469213488000
Doug BaldwinSEA2711449812648000
Larry FitzgeraldARI26015210811346000
Davante AdamsGB2501388710789000
TY HiltonIND2441428112956000
Tyreek HillKC2431187810677211041
Adam ThielenMIN2371328612275000
Stefon DiggsMIN2351218511017000
Demaryius ThomasDEN2261388710406000
Brandin CooksLAR2221117211077000
Golden TateDET2211288910095000
Allen RobinsonCHI213136759747000
Mike EvansTB2121397410336000
Robby AndersonNYJ2041367510085000
Amari CooperOAK203120719886000
Kenny StillsMIA2031226310017000
Jarvis LandryCLE202122898445000
Jamison CrowderWAS200118789475000
Alshon JefferyPHI197125699316000
Marquise GoodwinnSF197126739505000
Josh GordonCLE1961116410265000
Devin FunchessCAR191108638477000
Juju Smith-SchusterPIT190104659146000
Robert WoodsLAR189101668846000
Sammy WatkinsKC188107609276000
Emmanuel SandersDEN188121709124000
Marvin JonesDET1871046010124000
Chris HoganNE18596618477000
Randall CobbGB183104727396000
Cooper KuppLAR18295638506000
Kelvin BenjaminBUF180116648785000
Rishard MatthewsTEN178102618915000
Marqise LeeJAX176118688534000
Devante ParkerMIA172110667934000
Michael CrabtreeBAL170116677045000
Will FullerHOU167975478265180
Allen HurnsDAL167100627755000
Pierre GarconSF166102667963000
Nelson AgholorPHI16097606915000
Mohamed SanuATL15787636914000
Ravens WR4BAL15597617353000
Cameron MeredithNO15585587024000
Tyrell WilliamsLAC15382517624000
Quincy EnunwaNYJ153106567603000
Jordy NelsonOAK15188536635000
Tyler LockettSEA15194587303000
Julian EdelmanNE15093626584000
Willie SneadBAL14891597113000
Ted GinnNO14773507444000
Sterling ShepardNYG14686566624000
Kenny GolladayDET14593536884000
John RossCIN14183487004000
Chris GodwinTB14181527542000
Paul RichardsonWAS14084506804000
Jaguars WR4JAX139102566323000
Cole BeasleyDAL13985555694000
Jaron BrownSEA13789466315000
Corey ColemanBUF13692506304000
Corey DavisTEN13487496433000
Christian KirkARI13382556043000
DeSean JacksonTB13287476813000
Terrance WilliamsDAL13275516223000
Michael GallupDAL13075495754000
Danny AmendolaMIA12883565643000
Albert WilsonMIA12684545433000
Calvin RidelyATL12676505853000
Raiders WR4OAK12573475684000
Dante PettisSF12378495653000
Travis BenjaminLAC12276406373000
Donte MoncriefJAX12180435104001
Martavis BryantOAK12178445783000
Chester RogersIND12074465953000
Eric DeckerNE12068455374000
Jermaine KearseNYJ12089475723000
Mike WallacePHI11980455813000
Brice ButlerARI11970425903000
Torrey SmithCAR11772365484000
John BrownBAL11673395653000
Ryan GrantIND11268425073000
Taylor GabrielCHI11065435312000
Rams WR4LAR10864414883000
Kenny BrittNE10765424863000
Anthony MillerCHI10776404853000
Geronimo AllisonGB10663394713000
Kendall WrightMIN10561394723000
Terrelle PryorNYJ10586435092000
James WashingtonPIT10465394813000
Broncos WR4DEN10261384573000
Lions WR4DET10264404623000
Antonio CallawayCLE10166384773000
Tyler BoydCIN10157394124000
Courtland SuttonDEN10166374623000
Josh DoctsonWAS10173364913000
Adam HumphriesTB9864434342000
Mike WilliamsLAC9876384183000
Dede WestbrookJAX9470374612000
Giants WR4NYG9358364212000
Braxton MillerHOU9270423592000
J'Mon MooreGB9058353803000
Chris ConleyKC8856354531000
DJ MooreCAR8562343742000
JJ NelsonARI8458284492000
Saints WR4NO8345323802000
Russell ShepardNYG8258323862000
Taywan TaylorTEN8251294032000
49ers WR4SF8042293433000
Redskins WR4WAS7745303592000
Vikings WR4MIN7544293492000
Eagles WR4PHI7340253023000
Texans WR4HOU7249272953000
Titans WR4TEN7141253322000
Zay JonesBUF6658262862000
Bengals WR4CIN6539252792000
Seahawks WR4SEA6039232792000
Kevin WhiteCHI6038242761000
Falcons WR4ATL5633212342000
Panthers WR4CAR5536222491000
Chiefs WR4KC5134202331000
Jeremy KerleyBUF5043222171000
Browns WR4CLE4933222161000
Steelers WR4PIT4627182121000
Colts WR4IND4528172041000

Tight End

PlayerTeamPtsTargetsRecYdsTDRushYdsRush TD
Travis KelceKC2251248310526000
Zach ErtzPHI215120818957000
Rob GronkowskiNE20296639707000
Delanie WalkerTEN171102677455000
Jack DoyleIND16697705996000
Jordan ReedWAS15684646385000
Jimmy GrahamGB15681526287000
Greg OlsenCAR15098596874000
Cameron BrateTB13975495785000
Evan EngramNYG13786515855000
Trey BurtonCHI13682535854000
George KittleSF13578536103000
Kyle RudolphMIN13477525115000
David NjokuCLE12783484815000
OJ HowardTB12164415185000
Austin HooperATL11760435054000
Eric EbronIND11768444964000
Charles ClayBUF10772464832000
Jared CookOAK10362394893000
Luke WilsonDET10164404423000
Jesse JamesPIT10165443803000
Austin Seferian-JenkinsJAX10059374084000
Ed DicksonSEA9961374203000
Benjamin WatsonNO9657383843000
Ricky Seals-JonesARI9564344263000
Virgil GreenLAC9559373743000
Tyler EifertCIN9247323764000
Hayden HurstBAL9067393692000
Mike GesickiMIA8758373473000
Gerald EverettLAR7648283183000
Vernon DavisWAS6939253242000
Jake ButtDEN6844282912000
Stephen AndersonHOU6854272842000
Jonnu SmithTEN6741262583000
Vance McDonaldPIT6238232952000
Jordan LeggettNYJ5838252441000
Tyler KroftCIN5731212043000
Garret CelekSF5636232451000
Geoff SwaimDAL5335222212000
Nick BoyleBAL4936212011000
Will TyeNE4828181842000
Rhett EllisonNYG4629191871000
Tyler HigbeeLAR4332181871000
Niles PaulJAX4027161611000
Ryan GriffinHOU3927161731000
Nick VannettSEA3822141442000
Chargers TE2LAC3823151521000
Jermaine GreshamARI3723161591000
Seth DeValveCLE3722141651000
Michael RobertsDET3423141441000
Adam ShaheenCHI3422141421000
Dallas GoedertPHI3217111192000
Nick O'LearyBUF3119121461000
Lee SmithOAK2921141220000
Clive WalfordNYJ271510940001
Demetrius HarrisKC2722121071000
Josh HillNO2617121041000
Logan PaulsenATL211610781000
David MorganMIN21118781000
Jeff HeuermanDEN212214141000
Ian ThomasCAR21158851000
Durham SmytheMIA201710850000
Marcedes LewisGB18126741000
Blake JarwinDAL14106600000

  1. There’s a good chance that by the time you read this, an event that renders some of the projections null and void will occur.  (back)

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