Back in June, I wrote about what the difference in same-team running back ADP implies about fantasy performance. A player’s ADP represents the market’s best assessment of his individual value. The difference in ADP between two RBs on the same team also tells us something about each player’s relative value.
RB ADP differential is really just a way to screen players, and separate them into different buckets. Since we know how those buckets have performed historically, we can make inferences about who might over or underperform their ADP. As a reminder, same-team RBs are either separated by a big or small gap in ADP and are either the first or second team RB selected. This gives us four buckets.
|TEAM RB||1st Drafted||2nd Drafted|
|Big ADP Gap||B1||B2|
|Small ADP Gap||S1||S2|
Here’s how each of the four buckets has performed; a full discussion of what these numbers mean can be found here. In general, cheap B1 and S2 backs make good targets.
|RB Type||Pct N||Ave ADP||Pct Top 6||Ave Applied Pts||Ave Val Add||Win Rt > Teammate?||Win Rt > AveRB?||Ave Win Rt|
Current ADP-Based RB Typology
|Johnson, David ARZ||ARZ||3.4||B1|
|Edmonds, Chase ARZ||ARZ||224.8||B2|
|Freeman, Devonta ATL||ATL||20.4||S1|
|Coleman, Tevin ATL||ATL||62.1||S2|
|Collins, Alex BAL||BAL||39.0||B1|
|Allen, Javorius BAL||BAL||187.0||B2|
|McCoy, LeSean BUF||BUF||27.2||B1|
|Ivory, Chris BUF||BUF||200.4||B2|
|McCaffrey, Christian CAR||CAR||16.3||S1|
|Anderson, C.J. CAR||CAR||96.8||S2|
|Howard, Jordan CHI||CHI||24.5||S1|
|Cohen, Tarik CHI||CHI||70.8||S2|
|Mixon, Joe CIN||CIN||21.4||S1|
|Bernard, Giovani CIN||CIN||114.2||S2|
|Hyde, Carlos CLE||CLE||65.1||S1|
|Johnson, Duke CLE||CLE||76.4||S2|
|Elliott, Ezekiel DAL||DAL||3.5||B1|
|Morris, Alfred DAL||DAL||208.3||B2|
|Freeman, Royce DEN||DEN||56.7||S1|
|Booker, Devontae DEN||DEN||126.8||S2|
|Johnson, Kerryon DET||DET||73.6||S1|
|Riddick, Theo DET||DET||122.3||S2|
|Williams, Jamaal GB||GB||79.4||S1|
|Jones, Aaron GB||GB||93.2||S2|
|Miller, Lamar HOU||HOU||49.0||S1|
|Foreman, D'Onta HOU||HOU||135.0||S2|
|Mack, Marlon IND||IND||94.7||S1|
|Hines, Nyheim IND||IND||139.0||S2|
|Fournette, Leonard JAX||JAX||11.0||B1|
|Yeldon, T.J. JAX||JAX||196.2||B2|
|Hunt, Kareem KC||KC||9.7||B1|
|Ware, Spencer KC||KC||197.1||B2|
|Gurley, Todd LA||LA||1.3||B1|
|Kelly, John LA||LA||214.5||B2|
|Gordon, Melvin LAC||LAC||10.2||B1|
|Ekeler, Austin LAC||LAC||169.2||B2|
|Drake, Kenyan MIA||MIA||36.2||B1|
|Gore, Frank MIA||MIA||187.4||B2|
|Cook, Dalvin MIN||MIN||13.6||B1|
|Murray, Latavius MIN||MIN||154.6||B2|
|Burkhead, Rex NE||NE||56.0||S1|
|Michel, Sony NE||NE||67.6||S2|
|White, James NE||NE||113.7||S2|
|Kamara, Alvin NO||NO||6.0||S1|
|Ingram, Mark NO||NO||39.3||S2|
|Barkley, Saquon NYG||NYG||7.2||B1|
|Stewart, Jonathan NYG||NYG||214.1||B2|
|Crowell, Isaiah NYJ||NYJ||84.8||S1|
|Powell, Bilal NYJ||NYJ||139.9||S2|
|Lynch, Marshawn OAK||OAK||72.8||S1|
|Martin, Doug OAK||OAK||170.5||S2|
|Ajayi, Jay PHI||PHI||41.3||S1|
|Clement, Corey PHI||PHI||134.3||S2|
|Bell, Le'Veon PIT||PIT||2.3||B1|
|Conner, James PIT||PIT||216.4||B2|
|Penny, Rashaad SEA||SEA||59.1||S1|
|Carson, Chris SEA||SEA||100.6||S2|
|McKinnon, Jerick SF||SF||26.5||B1|
|Breida, Matt SF||SF||150.9||B2|
|Jones, Ronald TB||TB||69.2||S1|
|Barber, Peyton TB||TB||135.7||S2|
|Henry, Derrick TEN||TEN||36.0||S1|
|Lewis, Dion TEN||TEN||49.8||S2|
|Guice, Derrius WAS||WAS||54.7||S1|
|Thompson, Chris WAS||WAS||66.0||S2|
|Perine, Samaje WAS||WAS||146.3||S2|
- Alex Collins is the cheapest “B1” back. That means drafters are expecting him to dominate the backfield. I’m all in.
- Drafters took LeSean McCoy down a full round after recent allegations against him, so there’s clear concern about his value. On the other hand, after a brief spike, backup Chris Ivory’s ADP has fallen, and he remains nearly 200 picks behind McCoy. In other words, we’re worried about McCoy’s value, but not because we think another RB is going to steal work from him. That keeps McCoy in the B1 bucket, and from this point of view, makes him a player to target.
- Alvin Kamara appears overvalued. Despite his suspension, Mark Ingram’s ADP remains closer than average to Kamara’s. Historically, backs of Kamara’s type (S1) have performed the poorest vs. both their same-team counterpart and the average RB in terms of win percentage. Drafters are signaling that they expect Ingram to have a valuable role, and yet Kamara is being drafted ahead of players I prefer like Kareem Hunt, Melvin Gordon, and Leonard Fournette, among others. Those are all B1 backs, without the market-implied threat from someone of Ingram’s caliber. That doesn’t necessarily mean Ingram is a target. He’s sporting an S2 profile but is the most expensive of that type.
- Likewise, Christian McCaffrey and C.J. Anderson’s ADP are closer than average. Anderson’s S2 profile is the most desirable profile in this analysis, and I like him as a later round RB.
- When people draft Jordan Howard, they’re probably expecting to get a B1 back. But they’re really getting an S1. Howard’s ADP is on the high end for this type of back, and there are plenty of enticing options later on. I’m fading. Tarik Cohen is an S2 back, but his ADP is also on the higher end for this profile. I’m holding in dynasty, but not targeting in redraft unless he falls a bit. Note that Shawn Siegele makes an excellent case for Cohen as a Zero RB target.
- Joe Mixon is going even earlier than Howard, but his counterpart Giovani Bernard is going much later than Cohen. Bernard obviously has a better track record, and I like him at his price point.
- Lamar Miller is being drafted as an S1 back, but D’Onta Foreman’s ADP has been trending down. There’s a decent chance that Miller is a B1 back by the time the season starts, which makes him very appealing at his price.
- Drafters are treating Kenyan Drake as a B1 back. Despite his track record, the draft market doesn’t consider Frank Gore a threat to Drake’s workhorse role. Since Drake is one of the cheapest backs of this profile, he makes an excellent target at his ADP.
- James White fits the S2 profile and carries a modest price tag. He’s a popular target of mine.
- Bilal Powell also fits the S2 profile and is even cheaper. Go on, do it.
- Doug Martin is the cheapest S2 back. He’s had an up and down career, but the up is really enticing.
- A month ago, Rashaad Penny was a B1 back. Now, he’s an S1, and drafters are buying what Pete Carroll is selling as far as Chris Carson’s role is concerned. It still makes sense to target Carson at this price, but he’s approaching the higher end of the range for his S2 profile.
- In much the same fashion, Peyton Barber was a desirable S2 target, but his stock has risen drastically and his ADP is close to surpassing Ronald Jones’. I’m still buying, but if their ADPs flip, I’ll target Jones instead. The S-type backfields really lend themselves to just rolling with the cheaper player.
- Corey Clement isn’t a player I own anywhere, but he’s being drafted (S2) with the expectation of having value.
- McCoy, Collins, and Drake are the three cheapest B1 backs. The fourth-cheapest is Jerick McKinnon. That makes him a target.
- Matt Breida and Austin Ekeler are two of the most expensive B2 backs. This is the least desirable profile; I don’t generally target players in this bucket, and certainly not the most expensive ones.
- Chris Thompson’s ADP is a bit puzzling. He’s one of the more expensive S2 backs but doesn’t expect to be fully recovered until November. I’m passing.
- In Minnesota, despite reports that Latavius Murray could see a big role, drafters are treating Dalvin Cook as the undisputed backfield boss. He’s in the cheaper half of the B1 backs, so I’m targeting.