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RotoViz Ultimate Rankings: Projections, Historical Distributions, ADP, and Tiers Combined

Throughout the summer, I built a set of subjective projections, used historical projections to develop Historical Distribution Scores (HDS), and ensured that the RotoViz tiers maintained in the Draft Dashboard (DD) were updated by our awesome group of “tierers”.

Putting it All Together

While useful individually, I wanted to bring them together in an attempt to answer a couple of common questions: “How do you rank players within tiers?” and “Do you have a RotoViz cheatsheet?”1 We will be doing so with what I’m referring to as RotoViz Ultimate Rankings (RVUR). 

As I’ve talked about in the past, it’s my belief that when bucketing players into tiers, you should view all players in a tier as more or less the same in their ranges of outcomes. For this reason, I don’t really rank players within tiers. Depending on how a particular draft is shaking out and my team is being assembled, I might find a certain player more desirable than the remaining options in his tier. This could be for a variety of reasons such as TD scoring potential, secure offensive situation, etc.

Nonetheless, it’s useful to have tiebreakers and some way to contextualize differences between similar players.

Ultimate RotoViz Rankings

To assist in this effort, I pulled together ultimate rankings!

To start, I calculated RotoViz Ultimate Scores (RVUS). RVUS is comprised of four components — Average PPR ADP from all sources included in the DD, subjective projections, HDS, and tiers. For each I component, I determined every player’s rank within his position. Only players that were included in my set of subjective projections found their way into the RVUS process. HDS, naturally, was unavailable for rookies and a handful of veterans. In these instances, I used the variable that most correlated with HDS, on a positional basis, to calculate an HDS value via a linear regression. Tier rankings were calculated using each player’s average tier.

While I do value HDS, and it’s an important input in my player evaluation process, there are a number of things that it can’t account for. For this reason, I wanted to be careful to not let it overly influence the rankings. As a result, I assigned it a weighting of 15 percent. I also included ADP as an equally important input to help offset situations in which historical projections wouldn’t apply. The remaining 75 percent was allocated equally between projection and tier rankings.

RotoViz Ultimate Score = (0.15 x ADP Rank) + (0.15 x HDS Rank) + (0.35 x subjective projection rank) + (0.35 x tier rank)

Clearly, this wasn’t the most “mathy” process ever employed at RotoViz. Still, I think that it yielded actionable results.

Quarterback

PlayerTeamADP RankPROJ RankHDS RankTier RankRVUSRVUR
Russell WilsonSEA31211.51
Aaron RodgersGB125122
Tom BradyNE43612.93
Cam NewtonCAR53854.84
Deshaun WatsonHOU28945.95
Carson WentzPHI75386.16
Drew BreesNO671457.27
Andrew LuckIND913499.78
Kirk CousinsMIN81515711.29
Patrick MahomesKC206131311.610
Alex SmithWAS17811811.811
Matthew StaffordDET111710912.312
Marcus MariotaTEN161222913.113
Ben RoethlisbergerPIT131371613.214
Philip RiversLAC122011913.615
Jared GoffLAR1511121713.916
Matt RyanATL1419231517.517
Tyrod TaylorCLE258182618.418
Jameis WinstonTB2118161918.519
Jimmy GaroppoloSF102528131920
Dak PrescottDAL1921191919.721
Andy DaltonCIN2616212320.722
Case KeenumDEN2326172323.223
Blake BortlesJAX2427202123.424
Derek CarrOAK1829252324.725
Eli ManningNYG2222312725.126
Sam BradfordARI282226292627
Mitch TrubiskyCHI2928322126.328
Ryan TannehillMIA3122273026.929
Joe FlaccoBAL2730302828.930
Josh McCownNYJ303123323031
Josh AllenBUF3232293131.232

Running Back

PlayerTeamADP RankPROJ RankHDS RankTier RankRVUSRVUR
Le'Veon BellPIT21311.51
David JohnsonARI32111.72
Todd GurleyLAR13211.93
Ezekiel ElliottDAL456554
Alvin KamaraNO54955.35
Saquon BarkleyNYG651045.66
Melvin GordonLAC77877.27
Kareem HuntKC98687.98
Dalvin CookMIN1110488.69
Leonard FournetteJAX81258910
Christian McCaffreyCAR109161110.911
Devonta FreemanATL1213131112.212
LeSean McCoyBUF1516121514.913
Alex CollinsBAL1715221516.414
Joe MixonCIN1314321717.615
Jerick McKinnonSF1611461317.716
Royce FreemanDEN2018142118.817
Lamar MillerHOU2220181919.718
Jordan HowardCHI1427291420.819
Mark IngramNO2317112820.920
Jay AjayiPHI2119242221.121
Rex BurkheadNE2623262223.622
Kenyan DrakeMIA1826521725.623
Dion LewisTEN2421382625.824
Tevin ColemanATL2922501926.225
Derrick HenryTEN1928412627.926
Chris ThompsonWAS3430202828.427
Tarik CohenCHI3325422829.828
Marshawn LynchOAK2529323330.329
Duke JohnsonCLE3634362832.530
Marlon MackIND392448333331
Isaiah CrowellNYJ3833303333.332
Carlos HydeCLE2740153833.633
Chris CarsonSEA3531184534.634
Rashaad PennySEA3244462234.835
Sony MichelNE3039393335.636
Aaron JonesGB4237213835.737
Kerryon JohnsonDET2835354136.138
Peyton BarberTB4032175137.639
Jamaal WilliamsGB3141503338.140
CJ AndersonCAR4447273238.341
Ronald Jones IITB3755562240.942
Ty MontgomeryGB4544234541.443
Theo RiddickDET5143374142.644
Giovani BernardCIN4635534542.945
Latavius MurrayMIN4948304343.746
James WhiteNE4151324343.947
Matt BreidaSF5238574545.448
Devontae BookerDEN5041484946.249
Doug MartinOAK5546255547.450
Bilal PowellNYJ4848455148.651
Nick ChubbCLE4360593849.652
Adrian PetersonWAS475227595053
Austin EkelerLAC5358394951.354
Darren SprolesPHI5853425151.455
D'Onta ForemanHOU5457445152.556
TJ YeldonJAX5650575654.157
Javorius AllenBAL5755535755.758
Elijah McGuireNYJ6054555956.859
Chris IvoryBUF5959605858.860

Wide Receiver

PlayerTeamADP RankPROJ RankHDS RankTier RankRVUSRVUR
Antonio BrownPIT111111
DeAndre HopkinsHOU22211.72
Odell Beckham JrNYG353133
Michael ThomasNO53464.54
Keenan AllenLAC646555
Julio JonesATL46945.56
AJ GreenCIN871177.87
Davante AdamsGB710677.98
Adam ThielenMIN131381111.69
Larry FitzgeraldARI169101612.710
Mike EvansTB91916913.611
Doug BaldwinSEA148341214.212
Stefon DiggsMIN121430914.413
Tyreek HillKC1012221614.614
Jarvis LandryCLE172341215.415
TY HiltonIND1111361516.216
Brandin CooksLAR1916271618.117
Golden TateDET2217132118.618
Allen RobinsonCHI2118181918.819
Demaryius ThomasDEN201529212020
Amari CooperOAK1522411220.321
Juju Smith-SchusterPIT1828181921.922
Alshon JefferyPHI2625262123.923
Devin FunchessCAR3527122826.324
Marvin JonesDET2532232527.225
Josh GordonCLE2333172827.426
Robby AndersonNYJ4021302827.727
Kenny StillsMIA4419233629.328
Robert WoodsLAR3829143429.929
Marqise GoodwinSF2825433130.330
Chris HoganNE243445253131
Sammy WatkinsKC3130532431.532
Will FullerHOU3341322532.933
Jamison CrowderWAS3624413833.334
Emmanuel SandersDEN3230483133.435
Michael CrabtreeBAL2939203633.636
Cooper KuppLAR3436353836.337
Julian EdelmanNE3052143436.738
Pierre GarconSF4143234239.439
Randall CobbGB3935284939.540
Nelson AgholorPHI4244323839.841
Sterling ShepardNYG4354204544.142
Devante ParkerMIA4738385344.643
Allen HurnsDAL5041554244.844
Rishard MatthewsTEN614438424545
Kelvin BenjaminBUF453774494846
Corey DavisTEN2769743150.247
Jordy NelsonOAK3749645350.948
Kenny GolladayDET5155554550.949
Mohamed SanuATL6246386553.950
Ted GinnNO604055655451
Paul RichardsonWAS7458464554.152
Chris GodwinTB5949605955.753
Tyler LockettSEA554999455654
Tyrell WilliamsLAC7247695356.255
Keelan ColeJAX5856516157.356
Cameron MeredithNO5368664958.857
DeSean JacksonTB6472464958.958
Michael GallupDAL5666625359.459
Quincy EnunwaNYJ10147446159.660
Christian KirkARI6963555961.361
Dede WestbrookJAX6566626564.962
Corey ColemanBUF7761776165.863
John BrownBAL576277726764
Calvin RidleyATL49691055767.265
Mike WallacePHI7579506569.266
DJ MooreCAR481001013870.767
Cole BeasleyDAL7859608571.168
Albert WilsonMIA8569776571.269
Jermaine KearseNYJ8077497271.570
John RossCIN6657967871.671
Willie SneadBAL8153927871.872
Anthony MillerCHI5286866172.273
Martavis BryantOAK7075697272.374
Danny AmendolaMIA687952787375
Dante PettisSF10372676573.576
Courtland SuttonDEN6392925775.477
Donte MoncriefJAX7375648275.578
Jaron BrownSEA9060898276.679
Josh DoctsonWAS5492777277.180
Mike WilliamsLAC4696976577.881
Taywan TaylorTEN7187877279.482
Phillip DorsettNE9364599879.583
Taylor GabrielCHI8284827881.384
Ryan GrantIND8383728582.185
Travis BenjaminLAC8874779082.286
Terrance WilliamsDAL7964891018387
Torrey SmithCAR8782739084.288
Kendall WrightMIN9689369684.689
Chester RogersIND9477878884.990
Tyler BoydCIN929292728591
Terrelle PryorNYJ7689769085.592
Geronimo AllisonGB6787998886.293
Brice ButlerARI9579699886.694
J'Mon MooreGB10585829089.395
JJ NelsonARI89101828289.796
Zay JonesBUF86103679090.597
Adam HumphriesTB91965410190.798
James WashingtonPIT10091899091.799
Kevin WhiteCHI841041038594.2100
Antonio CallawayCLE10292929694.9101
Chris ConleyKC9799829895.8102
Braxton MillerHOU98989710198.9103
Russell ShepardNYG99102102101101.2104
Jeremy KerleyBUF104105104101103.3105

Tight End

PlayerTeamADP RankTier RankHDS RankPROJ RankRVUSRVUR
Travis KelceKC21211.31
Rob GronkowskiNE11131.72
Zach ErtzPHI33322.73
Delanie WalkerTEN84544.84
Jimmy GrahamGB47866.45
Evan EngramNYG657107.26
Jack DoyleIND119657.57
Jordan ReedWAS10101168.88
Greg OlsenCAR552989.79
Trey BurtonCHI911121110.910
Kyle RudolphMIN78201311.411
O.J. HowardTB141416912.612
George KittleSF1312251214.113
David NjokuCLE1212311415.614
Eric EbronIND1717131616.115
Cameron BrateTB1816171516.116
Austin Seferian-JenkinsJAX211991817.517
Jared CookOAK2015202018.318
Tyler EifertCIN152042418.319
Austin HooperATL1625271620.820
Charles ClayBUF192030192121
Mike GesickiMIA3217142521.622
Ricky Seals-JonesARI2822182322.723
Benjamin WatsonNO2622242222.924
Jesse JamesPIT2427202123.425
Gerald EverettLAR3122182624.226
Vernon DavisWAS2325202724.727
Vance McDonaldPIT2227153025.528
Jonnu SmithTEN2931102926.929
Tyler HigbeeLAR2727273128.430
Jake ButtDEN2532322829.631
Adam ShaheenCHI303025323032

  1. In the interest of full disclosure, I’m not in support of the concept of cheatsheets. They get your mind in the “I’m drafting players” mode as opposed to the “I’m building a team” mode.  (back)
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