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Connecting the Dots – What the AYA App Can Tell Us About WR Standouts

Connecting the Dots will focus on one key position and statistical area each week. After an electrifying Week 7, we use the AYA app to break down some of the most relevant passing attacks.

The AYA App is another handy app that we provide subscribers. AYA is an acronym for adjusted yards per attempt, an alternative to yards per attempt that also converts touchdowns and interceptions into yards. I’m going to pair this data with the fantastic visuals from the Weekly Stat Explorer to see which WRs are making the most of their volume.

JOHN BROWN – 11.09 AYA

Flacco Brown AYA

Brown has been out-targeted by Michael Crabtree, but has been almost twice as valuable on a per target basis. He’s been one of the best deep threats in the NFL, but he’s also been fantastic in the short right and short middle.

Brown location thru 7

His upcoming schedule could be difficult, and you might be able to grab him heading into his bye in leagues with late trade deadlines. Beginning in Week 11, he could perform as a low-end WR1.

John Brown WSE 2

 

TYLER BOYD – 10.04  AYA

Dalton AYA thru 7

Boyd has a higher AYA entering Week 8 than teammate A.J. Green (9.00). He is currently the WR14 which should not come as a surprise to RotoViz subscribers. Boyd has been all championed all summer heading into the season by Shawn Siegele and other writers. His target share and expected points hit a seasonal low in a weird game last week against the Chiefs, but he’s poised to bounce back against the league-worst Tampa Bay pass defense.
Tyler Boyd WSE 2

EMMANUEL SANDERS – 9.21 AYA

Keenum AYA thru 7

Emmanuel Sanders WSE 1Sanders currently leads all the Broncos receivers in AYA and has recorded at least 12 expected points in every game but one. He also leads in targets, receptions, receiving yards, and fantasy points.

KENNY GOLLADAY – 12.90 AYA

Stafford AYA thru 7 2

Golladay has been very efficient the first five games of the season, but did come out of the Lions bye week seeing only two targets and laid his first true statistical egg of 2018 after having a touchdown wiped out by penalty.  The Dolphins secondary did an excellent job containing all of the Lions receivers.

Kenny Golladay WSE 2

Golladay’s upcoming schedule is not for the faint of heart, but you might use the short-term hurdles as an argument in trade discussions as you try to add him for the fantasy playoffs. He will look to get back on track against a Seahawks secondary allowing the third-fewest passing yards per game.

DAVANTE ADAMS – 9.51 AYA

Rodgers AYA thru 7

Geronimo Allison and Marquez Valdes-Scantling have been even more efficient, but there work has come on lesser volume and with Adams drawing coverage. Adams has been even more productive over the last two games with Randall Cobb and Allison missing time due to injuries. He caught 67 percent of 28 targets, resulting in 272 receiving yards and three TDs in matchups against the Lions and 49ers.

 

Davante Adams WSE 2

Adams is currently the WR5 and has a very favorable schedule the rest of the way including matchups against the Falcons and Jets during the fantasy playoffs.

WILL FULLER – 11.26 AYADeshaun AYA thru 7

Fuller’s production continues to be up and down. He has also recently dealt with hamstring and hip injuries, but Fuller has been productive with the targets he’s seen when on the football field. He should be closer to 100 percent entering this weekend’s matchup.

Will Fuller WSE 1Fuller’s production continues to be up and down. He has also recently dealt with hamstring and hip injuries, but Fuller has been productive with the targets he’s seen when on the football field. He should be closer to 100 percent entering this weekend’s matchup.

The narrative this week surrounding Fuller involves the production splits with and without Keke Coutee on the field. Of course, some of the poor games with Coutee overlapped with contests where Fuller wasn’t 100 percent.

Fuller Coutee splits

Fuller has an excellent matchup this week against the Dolphins secondary considering DeAndre Hopkins will be busy with Xavier Rhodes.

TYREEK HILL – 11.23 AYAmahomes AYA thru 7

Tyreek Hill WSE 1

Hill is currently the WR2 overall and now has four games with 15 or more expected points. He’s one of the top vertical targets in the NFL but has also demonstrated a freakish ability to catch shorter passes, turn on the jets, and take them for massive gains. His efficiency on shorter targets is mindboggling.

Hill AYA thru 7

 

ADAM THIELEN – 9.64 AYACousins AYA thru 7

 

The only WRs with more receiving yards than Thielen since the start of the 2016 season are Julio Jones and Antonio Brown. He has eclipsed 100 or more receiving yards in all seven games this season. Thielen is currently the WR1 in PPR formats and is leads the position in targets, receptions, and receiving yards. He is maximizing the target volume on a weekly basis and the AYA reflects that.

 

Thielen’s teammate Stefon Diggs is currently the WR12 and has put together a solid season. He’s one of my favorite receivers to buy low with matchups against the Dolphins and Lions during the fantasy playoffs.

BRANDIN COOKS – 12.82 AYAGoff AYA thru 7

Cooper Kupp‘s MCL sprain opens the door for Cooks to improve on his six targets per game average. The Rams will have to lean heavily on their passing game against the Packers this week. This matchup has the highest Vegas projected point total of Week 8 at 56.5.

 

Brandin Cooks WSE 2

 

MIKE EVANS – 10.06 AYA/10.43

Mike Evans WSE 1

Evans is in the midst of one of the most efficient seasons of his career and is doing it on heavy volume with five games in double digits for expected points. He had an AYA of 10.06 with Ryan Fitzpatrick under center and currently has an AYA of 10.43 with Jameis Winston.

 

Evans is currently the WR13 and catching 73 percent of his targets. He had a catch rate of 53 percent in 61 games played from 2014 to 2017.

Do you agree or disagree? What was most useful to you? Please leave a comment below or better yet reach out to me via Twitter @EricNMoody

 

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