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Connecting the Dots – Quarterbacks to Target for the Fantasy Playoffs

Connecting the Dots will focus on one key position and statistical area each week. After an outstanding Week 5, we use the RotoViz Screener and the Buy Low Machine to identify quarterbacks you should target in upcoming weeks and the fantasy playoffs. 

The RotoViz Screener and the Buy Low Machine are two of my favorite in the suite of apps we provide our subscribers. I spend hours every week analyzing its results in preparation for the upcoming slate of NFL games and to determine which players to start or sit.

Passing yards (paYDS) and expected points (EP) per game are two of the first statistics I like to review when evaluating the QB position. Success rate (paSR), passing fantasy points over expectation per pass attempt (paFPOEPA), and PPR points per game are also very useful.

The Stars

Top-10 Fantasy QBsThis list of the top-10 fantasy QBs ranked by passing yards per game shouldn’t come as a surprise. Even the QBs with smaller sample sizes have shown consistency. You may be thinking no one could have predicted the success Patrick Mahomes is having as the QB1 through five games. This level of excellence is obviously unexpected, but the No. 10 pick from the 2017 draft took apart an elite Broncos defense in Week 17 last year. He then had the entire NFL offseason to digest the Chiefs playbook, and head coach Andy Reid customized the scheme to leverage Mahomes’ strengths. The rest is history.

Regular Season Streamers, Value Plays, and 2-QB Options

QBs to Target

This group of QBs may be overlooked in most formats, and the Buy Low Machine puts five of them on the list of the 10 easiest schedules from now until the end of the fantasy regular season (Week 13).1

Buy Low Machine 6-13

Top QB Streamers for the Fantasy Playoffs

While those signal callers could help you make the playoffs, it pales next to what four of them could do once they’ve arrived. Case Keenum and Mitchell Trubisky have the two best schedules at crunch time. Blake Bortles and Eli Manning join them in the top six.

Buy Low Machine 14-16

  • Things were looking dire for Trubisky prior to his best game as a professional in Week 4. He was only averaging 4.8 passing adjusted yards per attempt which ranked near the bottom of the league. But the matchup against Tampa Bay came at a great time. He has an offensive-minded coach and the receiving weapons to be successful.
  • Bortles immediately becomes a viable streaming option whenever Leonard Fournette is out of the lineup. He finished Week 5 with a career-high 430 passing yards, a passing touchdown, and a rushing touchdown. A high percentage of his fantasy production came in garbage time after the Chiefs built a big lead. Bortles’ five turnovers were concerning, but it wasn’t enough to completely derail his fantasy day.
  • Manning has gotten off to a slow start this season, but he has the offensive weapons to be successful on any given Sunday regardless of game flow. He finished the game against the Panthers with 326 passing yards, two TDs, and two INTs. The Giants face a number of defenses over their next six games that allow a high number of passing yards per game.
  • Keenum has only thrown five TD passes to seven INTs through five games. The Broncos are currently ranked third in rushing yards per with 137, but continue to come up short on third down (ranked 26th) and in the red zone (ranked 27th). Once those numbers bounce back, Denver should be a sneaky source of production.

 

Do you agree or disagree? What was most useful to you? Please leave a comment below or better yet reach out to me via Twitter @EricNMoody

  1. Since Jameis Winston was suspended to start the season and saw limited action in Week 4 in relief of Ryan Fitzpatrick I used his 2017 stats in the table above.  (back)

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