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NASCAR DFS Picks, Projections for Martinsville

NASCAR heads to Martinsville Speedway for the opening race of the third round of the playoffs. As usual, I’ll give you my NASCAR DFS picks, fades, and projections. Also, the NASCAR DFS Multi-Lineup OptimizerSim Scores, and Splits apps are updated for your NASCAR DFS needs.

Because this is an impound race, and inspection will be tomorrow morning, starting positions, projections, and ownership percentages could change. As a result I’ll have RotoViz Live tomorrow morning at 10:30am ET/7:30am PT. Details can be found on my Twitter feed.

If you’re new to daily fantasy NASCAR, or simply need a refresher, check out the flat track section of my track types article. Brush up on your general GPP strategy and game theory if you want to have a shot at taking down first place. If you’re more of a cash game player, check out how to target high floor drivers, and remember to find any potential race dominators.

Let’s get to the NASCAR DFS picks and projections for Martinsville!

NASCAR DFS MODEL PROJECTIONS FOR MARTINSVILLE

The model projections assume that the driver finishes the race – hence why you don’t see any average finishing positions worse than about 29th. The Pts column shows the average projected DraftKings points for races when the driver finishes the race.

NOTE: Ownership projections will be added later Saturday evening or Sunday AM.

DriverStartFinishLLFLPtsSalOwn
Kyle Busch15.0590.1544.5379.701190047.9%
Clint Bowyer28.630.5724.7848.83980025.3%
Denny Hamlin36.8421.9218.5148.06850027.2%
Ryan Blaney47.839.1514.1749.27890022.1%
Aric Almirola515.316.6210.3925.23830011.5%
Kurt Busch611.3348.3624.3551.61900010.2%
Brad Keselowski75.251.3534.7870.831020029.0%
Daniel Suarez815.250.814.2723.84750010.8%
Kyle Larson914.1935.2119.6443.241150014.3%
Joey Logano108.9417.9617.3249.27950012.8%
William Byron1114.941.403.3627.15640011.6%
Kevin Harvick125.6244.7028.7370.301250016.6%
Chris Buescher1323.770.233.1211.08590010.0%
Alex Bowman1415.288.585.9632.5779008.5%
AJ Allmendinger1520.371.557.4522.37620017.0%
Ryan Newman1614.832.156.0233.89710010.7%
Jamie McMurray1714.490.376.1135.1773008.5%
Ricky Stenhouse Jr1815.935.534.2633.6567008.8%
Chase Elliott1914.0340.0933.9861.95920018.9%
Michael McDowell2025.810.461.2213.1155007.8%
Erik Jones2115.5113.509.1541.9387009.4%
Ross Chastain2229.250.011.098.0553008.5%
Ty Dillon2324.260.473.8120.50580011.9%
Matt Kenseth2418.176.0410.2638.30690011.6%
Austin Dillon2516.210.543.9838.71740025.3%
Matt DiBenedetto2625.890.031.6919.0754007.4%
Regan Smith2722.480.302.0827.16660010.6%
Cole Whitt2828.550.031.4015.6150004.9%
D.J. Kennington2929.830.021.1313.91
Joey Gase3030.090.010.9214.2848002.6%
Hermie Sadler3130.730.020.5813.8445004.5%
Landon Cassill3231.460.020.8513.5152002.8%
Martin Truex Jr337.1628.2519.0479.261070029.5%
Jimmie Johnson3413.843.289.2855.78810042.9%
Paul Menard3515.490.242.6549.41770037.9%
David Ragan3623.920.012.4933.41610025.3%
Bubba Wallace3722.840.011.8436.24570031.2%
JJ Yeley3830.410.011.0421.7049002.2%
Jeb Burton3930.890.020.6321.54
Timmy Hill4031.390.010.6321.5446002.0%

Now on to the NASCAR DFS picks for Sunday!

NASCAR DFS PICKS – CASH GAMES

Kyle Busch ($11,900) — Kyle Busch is the best driver at Martinsville in recent history, and posted practice speeds to back that up. Busch has the most dominator points, leading 33.4 percent of all Martinsville laps since 2016. He was the fastest in final practice in 10-lap average, and well inside the top 10 in overall average speeds despite turning 83 laps. He’s my top dominator candidate for Sunday’s race. Look for him to cruise in the lead until at least the first caution comes out.

Brad Keselowski ($10,100) — Keselowski puts up tons of fastest laps at Martinsville, and with 500 laps scheduled, those fastest laps will add up fast. Keselowski is averaging 13.3 percent fastest laps in Martinsville races since 2016, which equates to 67 fastest laps and 33.5 DK points. He’s got one of the fastest cars this weekend, posting the second-fastest 10-lap average in final practice, and the sixth-fastest 10-lap average in opening practice. That opening practice run came later in the sessions as track temperatures warmed and became slightly closer to racing conditions. His car is in prime shape for the race. Consider him my second most likely dominator behind Kyle Busch.

Paul Menard ($7700) — Menard’s team had ignition issues in qualifying, relegating them to a 39th place starting position. Menard should easily pass plenty of back-marker cars. He was 24th in 10-lap average in final practice, and if he stays clean, should pick up more spots through attrition. Martinsville is a high-attrition track.

NOTE: With the 38 of David Ragan, 43 of Bubba Wallace, 48 of Jimmie Johnson, and 78 of Martin Truex Jr. all failing inspection, you’ll have to make some cash game choices. I still like my picks outlined above for cash. With Keselowski, it’s all about raising that floor through dominator points.

NASCAR DFS PICKS – GPPS

Ryan Blaney ($8900) — I believe Bowyer will go over-owned and I want to pivot off him this weekend. Blaney starts fourth, but comes in much cheaper than Bowyer. Blaney has nearly as much dominator potential as Bowyer, given Bowyer will be likely stuck behind Kyle Busch at the beginning, but will probably (hopefully) come in at a significant ownership and price discount. Bowyer and Blaney have the same average running position in incident-free Martinsville races over the past two years, during Bowyer’s time at Stewart-Haas Racing.

Chase Elliott ($9200) —  I strongly believe there will be heavy ownership on Bowyer given his win here in the spring, his second place starting spot, and his practice times. I love not only Blaney, but Elliott as a Bowyer pivot as well. Elliott has a strong track history, with the seventh-best driver rating in all races at Martinsville since 2016. That number is partly dragged down by his 27th place finish in the fall race last year, thanks to a 27th place finish. However, he dominated a large chunk of that race, and probably would have won or finished second had Denny Hamlin not dumped him. Elliott’s 10-lap average wasn’t great, but it did come later in the session. I think that will keep his ownership down at a track where I look at track history as much as I do practice.

Jimmie Johnson ($8100)   Speaking of track history and practice, Johnson has a great combination of both. Johnson was eighth in 10-lap average in final practice, and of course has been simply dominant at Martinsville throughout his career. Johnson had an average running position of 12th in the first Martinsville race this year, but ultimately finished 15th. If he finishes higher than his average, he could certainly pull off a top-10. With a 23rd place starting spot, a top-10 would give him 47 points minimum.

A.J. Allmendinger ($6200) — This price is just way too low for a driver with a 7.4 average finish in incident-free races at Martinsville since 2015. His 17th place starting position also gives him plenty of place differential potential to go along with that 7.4 average finish. Allmendinger was only 21st in 10-lap average in final practice, and I hope that makes people overlook him. His run did come a bit later into the session, but I’m more interested in his track history than his practice times. When you have a $6200 driver with top 10 potential that also comes with a good chunk of place differential, you have to smash the that add to lineup button.

NOTE: I still like all these picks after inspection, but you can definitely add David Ragan to the list as well now that he’s failed inspection. Allmendinger becomes the Ragan pivot.

NASCAR DFS MARTINSVILLE FADES

Daniel Suarez ($7500) — Suarez has an awful Martinsville history, averaging a 21.7 finish and 22.7 running position in three career races. His 10-lap average was only 17th best in Happy Hour, despite making his run at the start of the session when the track was at its fastest. He’s the easiest candidate for negative place differential this weekend, having qualified ninth.

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