GLSP uses historical matchup, team, player, and Vegas lines to generate situation-agnostic running back projections. The low projection is equivalent to the 25th percentile point total from the comparable matchups. The median projection provides a benchmark, with even odds of the player producing more or less. The high projection is equivalent to the 75th percentile point total from the comparable matchups.
Remember, the most valuable way to incorporate GLSP into your lineup-setting process is to identify surprisingly high and low projections, then strategically start or fade the outliers. This week’s projections are based on a blend of the past five, four, and three weeks, meaning they’re entirely based on games from this season.
These are the projections from Dave Caban. They’ll be available each week on Wednesdays as part of the Weekly Stats Explorer.
Week 7 GLSP Running Back Projections
Saquon Barkley (28) – He’s “one of the usual suspects” that I don’t always mention because they always have high ceilings. I mention him now because he has the highest ceiling of the week. According to the Weekly Stat Explorer, The Falcons are the fifth-best matchup for fantasy running backs. Atlanta has already surrendered six 20-plus point performances to RBs, so I wouldn’t be too worried about the fact that New York is a big underdog.
Barkley is being utilized on over 40 percent of his snaps and gets his production in all game scripts. Barkley has a ridiculous 22 percent market share of the Giants’ pass targets. This is a great situation that warrants the week’s best projection.
Kareem Hunt (26.7) – Hunt gets lost in the glare cast by Patrick Mahomes’ star, not to mention many other great RB performances this year. Hunt is somewhat quietly the RB8 on the season. After a Week 1 dud, he’s had five straight games over 15 points, and now gets the sixth-best matchup of the week. Cincinnati has already given up 20-plus point games to James Conner, Kenyan Drake, and Christian McCaffrey.
Mark Ingram (22)
This one stands out because Baltimore is the fourth-toughest fantasy RB matchup. However, in his first game of the season last week, Ingram scored two TDs and out-carried Alvin Kamara 16 to 8. Kamara still got a ridiculous number of targets, but Ingram also managed to get three himself. That’s a thin thread of course, but if you’re looking for a contrarian play, Ingram could be it. Over the past four seasons, Ingram has averaged over 12 points in games with similar point-spreads.1
I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention that in the three games in the In Split that Kamara also played, Ingram averaged just 10 points. That’s still a usable floor, and I’d be comfortable with Ingram in my lineup. If he hits the upside, I’ll be even happier.
Corey Clement (21.7) – I talked about Clement and Wendell Smallwood at length in this week’s waiver wire article, so bang it there for more analysis. For this week however Clement’s high projection is six points better than Smallwood’s.
Tarik Cohen (19.7) – Cohen is often difficult to trust in a starting lineup, but let’s compare him to Jordan Howard.
Howard’s getting more total expected points, but not doing much with them. Their projections suggest Cohen is the safer play this week, for both floor and ceiling.
T.J. Yeldon (18.7) – He’s got a balanced production profile and he’s the only back that’s likely to get a lot of work.
Carlos Hyde (14.7) – See if you can spot the pattern in Hyde’s production.
A 15-point high projection is just middle of the pack, and the low end (seven points) is best avoided if possible.
Kenyan Drake (14.3) – The matchup against Detroit is great, but Frank Gore refuses to go gently. Here’s Gore’s usage this season.
Drake has the better projections and a safer role because of his work as a receiver, but Gore will continue to cap his upside.
Alex Collins (13.7) – Neither Baltimore back looks great, but Collins looks like the marginally safer play.
As I noted in this week’s waiver wire article, Baltimore’s matchup against New Orleans is fabulous for receivers. Combine that with the split nature of Baltimore’s backfield, and I’d look elsewhere.
Christian McCaffrey (13) – McCaffrey is ninth in total expected points at the RB position and is averaging nearly 20 points a game. However, GLSP flagged McCaffrey with a low ceiling last week, which turned out to be accurate, as he posted just 13.6 points, his lowest total of the season. GLSP is skeptical again this week. The matchup seems neutral, so what gives?
The Eagles surrendered a big game to Saquon Barkley, but have otherwise limited fantasy RB production.
I’m not suggesting benching McCaffrey but perhaps expect a bit less from him.
Some other noteworthy lows. Use the table below or the on-site app to dig in further.
- LeSean McCoy (12)
- Lamar Miller (12)
- Tevin Coleman (10.3)
Odds and Ends
Three players with unexciting ceilings, but noteworthy median projections. They may not win your week, but GLSP gives them a 50 percent chance to score more than the following number of not-week-losing points.
- Isaiah Crowell – 16
- James White – 13
- Adrian Peterson – 13
|Ronald Jones II||TB||CLE||1||3||7||6|
- +1 – +4.5; currently New Orleans is +3.5 (back)