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Concentrated Target Shares, Top Dynasty RBs, and Overvalued Receivers: What Expected Points Are Telling Us After Week 12

By now we have a good idea of who the best players in fantasy football are. But do we know who the best players in fantasy football should be, based on opportunity?

Expected points (EP) tell most of that story. Looking at the leaders in total expected points helps us understand how players score their points, and whether we should expect that scoring to continue.

Expected points measure the number of fantasy points a target or carry should score based on historical averages for targets and carries with the same down, distance, and line of scrimmage. Carries at the opponent’s 1-yard line are much more valuable than carries at the 50-yard line. Expected points express that difference numerically.

Total Expected Points Leaders

The following table displays the non-quarterback leaders in total expected points1 for the season and in Week 12.2 Below the table I’ll offer a few observations.

PLAYER2018 totEP2018 totFPOE2018 EP/G2018 FPOE/GWk 12 totEPWk 12 totFPOE
Saquon Barkley233.950.121.34.619.114.1
Todd Gurley231.561.921.05.600
Alvin Kamara221.446.920.14.38.91.9
Ezekiel Elliott219.71920.01.721.43.9
Christian McCaffrey217.150.419.74.633.413.3
James Conner213.431.819.42.914.2-0.7
Adam Thielen205.551.318.74.713.612.9
Julio Jones204.229.418.62.723.91.9
Antonio Brown202.521.918.42.022.2-6.5
Stefon Diggs193.55.319.40.5202.9
James White192.621.417.51.912.6-3.8
Odell Beckham Jr.190.217.417.31.614.1-0.6
Davante Adams188.850.417.24.611.76.2
David Johnson183.60.216.70.011.4-1.5
Juju Smith-Schuster180.727.116.42.529.48.5
Jarvis Landry179-4416.3-4.07.3-1.3
Kareem Hunt177.352.916.14.800
Zach Ertz175.334.215.93.111.310.8
DeAndre Hopkins174.847.915.94.48.93.5
Travis Kelce168.631.815.32.900
Michael Thomas167.874.215.36.78.6-0.8
Melvin Gordon167.879.716.88.08.612
Tyreek Hill164.884.915.07.700
Keenan Allen163.621.714.92.0137.2
Robert Woods158.625.914.42.400
Mike Evans156.942.414.33.911.85.8
Emmanuel Sanders155.431.614.12.922.7-1.1
Joe Mixon145.712.916.21.4175.5
T.J. Yeldon14510.813.21.07.1-1.8
Golden Tate144.2-714.4-0.712.5-5.5
Tyler Boyd141.641.812.93.812.49.1
Brandin Cooks141.242.314.14.200
Corey Davis139.61.812.70.28.115.4
Kenny Golladay138.424.812.62.312.21.8
Dion Lewis137.2-8.312.5-0.814.3-3.2
Michael Crabtree136.2-23.712.4-2.210.80.3
Kenyan Drake135.814.812.31.313.912.7
Adrian Peterson135.116.412.31.58.2-1.8
George Kittle134.722.612.22.119.6-7.8
John Brown128.7-3.211.7-0.312.6-9.1
A.J. Green128.121.616.02.700
Tevin Coleman12820.411.61.911.6-0.3
Eric Ebron12838.911.63.511.210.3
Lamar Miller125.26.312.50.67.216.5
Ty Hilton124.627.413.83.016.13.4
Jordan Howard123.1-15.311.2-1.46.3-3.8
Phillip Lindsay122.240.511.13.78.68.4
LeSean McCoy119.8-20.412.0-2.010.2-3.9
Kerryon Johnson119.521.912.02.200
Tarik Cohen119.442.410.93.911.87.1
Taylor Gabriel119.21.810.80.212-0.1
Willie Snead119-11.811.9-1.200
Peyton Barber118.7-15.610.8-1.416.5-2.2
Larry Fitzgerald118.71.310.80.12.38.7
Jordan Reed118.6-2.910.8-0.314.4-0.9
Dede Westbrook117.98.810.70.810.96.8
Sterling Shepard117.412.310.71.19-1.3
Nelson Agholor117.2-13.610.7-1.21.80.4
Jared Cook117.120.810.61.97.53.7
Carlos Hyde117-30.611.7-3.17.5-4.2
DeSean Jackson116.231.310.62.812-6.5
Nyheim Hines113.6-2.510.3-0.27.3-0.3
Calvin Ridley112.24810.24.423.5-0.2
Austin Hooper1128.610.20.87.30.8
Amari Cooper111.620.211.22.013.824.2
Devin Funchess107.43.210.70.300
Adam Humphries107.318.39.81.78.78.7
Demaryius Thomas106.516.69.71.58.811
Donte Moncrief105.8-1.79.6-0.26.6-2.7
Chris Godwin105.420.19.61.86.22
Jalen Richard105.14.59.60.46.1-2.5
Marvin Jones104.910.911.71.200
Julian Edelman104.513.314.91.98.69.8
Matt Breida104.231.39.52.815.51.5
Alex Collins103.111.510.31.200
Jermaine Kearse102.3-36.610.2-3.719.3-0.7
Antonio Callaway102-14.59.3-1.38.67.6
Jimmy Graham101.8-5.29.3-0.56.6-1.2
Chris Carson101.74.611.30.513.70.6
Sony Michel101.5-2.612.7-0.3184.5
Alshon Jeffery99.710.112.51.351.9
Zay Jones99.6-5.49.1-0.51.6-1.6
David Njoku99.62.510.00.310.66.7
Cooper Kupp9936.112.44.500
Allen Robinson98.111.310.91.36-0.3
Kyle Rudolph97.8-0.38.90.0112.3
Aaron Jones97.140.810.84.517.11.2
Danny Amendola96.948.80.41.80.5
Sammy Watkins96.818.39.71.800
Cole Beasley96.37.68.80.73.2-1.7
Javorius Allen95.80.68.70.10.3-0.1
Josh Doctson94.4-179.4-1.716.2-3.6
Austin Ekeler94.437.98.63.420.16.2
Trey Burton94.318.88.61.711.1-4.3
Mohamed Sanu93.8218.51.974.7
Mike Davis93.35.79.30.64.5-3.1
Marlon Mack93.311.713.31.710.21.4
Nick Chubb93.139.28.53.622.15.7
Josh Gordon93.113.310.31.57.34.7
Tyler Lockett93.168.88.56.38.313.2
Kelvin Benjamin92.8-32.48.4-2.931.2
Quincy Enunwa92.6-11.810.3-1.365.3
Isaiah Crowell92.431.98.42.981
Theo Riddick91.5-8.110.2-0.911.81.2
Frank Gore91.2-6.78.3-0.610.1-1.4
Christian Kirk91.121.78.32.09.3-1.2
Latavius Murray87.818.98.01.75.1-1.8
Mark Ingram87.611.612.51.78-0.6
Jeff Heuerman86.8-15.78.7-1.64.51.9
Derrick Henry86-1.37.8-0.17.7-0.8
Marshawn Lynch85.9-6.914.3-1.200
Duke Johnson85.614.27.81.35.4-0.5
Chester Rogers85.6-7.77.8-0.76.11.8
Alfred Blue85.3-17.47.8-1.67.5-0.3
Courtland Sutton84.6-1.37.7-0.16.4-4
D.J. Moore83.233.47.63.016.31.5
O.J. Howard82.338.28.23.800
Anthony Miller81.718.68.21.96.70.4
Ricky Seals-Jones81.1-21.47.4-1.92.4-0.9
Keelan Cole79.9-7.48.9-0.82.8-2.8
Leonard Fournette79.79.115.91.817.78.1
Rob Gronkowski79.614.810.01.9131.6
Vance McDonald79.319.17.91.98.7-3
Alfred Morris78.9-298.8-3.200
Doug Baldwin77.40.28.60.011.8-2.9
Doug Martin77-8.67.0-0.814.41.8
Maurice Harris74.4-17.39.3-2.29.4-9.4
LeGarrette Blount73.5-56.7-0.515.18.2
Will Fuller7333.310.44.800
Ito Smith72.95.37.30.57.5-4.8
Laquon Treadwell72.5-10.96.6-1.04.7-3.1
Robby Anderson72.44.68.00.58.3-4.1
Pierre Garcon72-13.49.0-1.700
Chris Ivory71.6-8.27.2-0.81.8-0.4
Benjamin Watson70.60.77.80.13.2-0.2
Keke Coutee70.5-7.811.8-1.33.30.1
Marquez Valdes-Scantling70.57.87.10.83.1-1.8
Wendell Smallwood70.58.57.80.900
Corey Clement70.4-1.37.8-0.15.34.3
Tyrell Williams70.341.17.04.100
C.J. Uzomah69.9-0.26.40.017.9-8
Michael Gallup67.2-12.86.1-1.29.1-5.2
Cordarrelle Patterson67.1-8.56.1-0.88.7-6.8
Kendrick Bourne67.11.66.10.15.1-0.4
Mike Williams66.842.76.13.98.110.4
Jamaal Williams66.7-156.1-1.40.50
Jordy Nelson65.912.26.61.22-2.2
Ryan Grant65.7-0.37.30.01.7-0.4
Bilal Powell64.9-2.69.3-0.400
Greg Olsen64.513.38.11.78.9-5.8
David Moore63.8307.13.38.811.5
John Ross63.4-2.17.9-0.312.4-0.3
Giovani Bernard63.47.29.11.02.70.5
Chris Thompson63.2312.60.600
Dalvin Cook62.92.110.50.49.57.1
Royce Freeman62.89.97.01.13.1-1.4
Kenny Stills61.116.16.11.65.7-4.1
Chris Hogan60.714.35.51.33.23.5
Phillip Dorsett60.44.26.70.53.2-0.2
Randall Cobb60.1-2.212.0-0.400
Devontae Booker59.91.35.40.12.5-0.9
Seth Roberts59.812.26.01.25.23.3
Ryan Switzer59.6-3.45.4-0.315.2-2.1
Tajae Sharpe59.42.15.90.200
Jack Doyle59.23.39.90.68.53.1
Mark Andrews58.410.35.30.91.96.5
Nick Vannett58-0.55.8-0.12.61.6
Ty Montgomery57.9-0.17.20.07.42
Nick Boyle57.8-18.75.8-1.93.50.4
Jacquizz Rodgers57.5-3.26.4-0.410.20
Tre'Quan Smith56.926.27.13.300
Antonio Gates56.7-1.85.7-0.21.51.3
Paul Richardson56.22.98.00.400
Evan Engram56.15.68.00.800
Albert Wilson55.435.37.95.000
Chris Conley55.213.15.51.300
Jarius Wright55.165.00.53.80.7
Allen Hurns54.8-35.5-0.31.60.1
Jesse James53.522.45.42.25.61.9
Geoff Swaim53.236.70.400
Marquise Goodwin52.922.96.62.900
Jakeem Grant52.97.45.30.700
Chris Herndon52.622.85.82.512.10.6
Cameron Brate51.910.65.21.18.43.2
Jordan Wilkins50.87.45.10.74.22
Jonnu Smith50.48.55.00.94.79.6
Ryan Griffin50.1-176.3-2.15.90.9
Charles Clay50-14.16.3-1.800
Rashaad Penny49.83.15.50.32.1-1.7
Terrelle Pryor49.146.10.500
Chad Williams48.9-20.66.1-2.600
Taywan Taylor48.8-0.46.1-0.100
Geronimo Allison48.713.69.72.700
Zach Pascal48.4-12.56.9-1.800
D.J. Chark47.6-16.25.3-1.800
Rashard Higgins47.417.15.92.14.5-1.1
Kyle Juszczyk47.110.54.71.100
Bruce Ellington45.9-2.59.2-0.511.5-2.5
DeVante Parker45.6-5.17.6-0.94.9-0.9
Martavis Bryant45.52.46.50.300
Kapri Bibbs45.112.25.61.58.73.9
Tyler Higbee453.85.00.400
Trent Taylor44.7-4.75.6-0.600
Gerald Everett44.612.44.51.200
Curtis Samuel44.636.86.45.366.2
Marcus Murphy44-12.47.3-2.100
Josh Adams43.93.76.30.516.2-1.8
Torrey Smith43.51.67.30.300
James O'Shaughnessy42.6-12.54.7-1.42.9-2.9
Dallas Goedert42.318.84.72.160.3
Rhett Ellison41.15.14.10.59.32.4
James Washington39.9-18.25.0-2.35.2-5.2
Mike Gesicki39.9-6.34.0-0.61.40.1
Jay Ajayi39.449.91.000
Ted Ginn39.30.89.80.200
Vernon Davis39.320.23.92.04.810.5
Andre Holmes38.5-7.93.9-0.800
Josh Reynolds37.811.86.32.000
Chase Edmonds37.3-9.53.4-0.92.2-2.2
Equanimeous St. Brown37.3-2.35.3-0.37.71.1
Spencer Ware36.812.14.11.300
Dante Pettis36.74.87.31.011.36.4
Michael Roberts36.60.46.10.112.8-8.2
Wayne Gallman36.2-7.14.0-0.85.5-1.2
Brandon Marshall35.9-5.36.0-0.900
Dontrelle Inman35.64.18.91.05.91.1
Virgil Green35.24.73.50.51.4-1.4
Jamison Crowder35.10.88.80.200
Deonte Thompson34.9-8.54.4-1.14.2-4.2
Jason Croom34.80.93.90.14.9-1.3
Jordan Matthews34.115.64.32.01.5-1.5
Jordan Thomas33.89.63.81.12.7-1.1
Austin Seferian-Jenkins33.1-7.16.6-1.400
Matt LaCosse32.74.43.60.57.25.2
Malcolm Brown315.63.40.600
Lance Kendricks30.9-0.23.10.04.3-0.9
Demarcus Robinson30.7-4.23.4-0.500
Tyler Eifert30.58.47.62.100
Aldrick Robinson30.318.73.42.13-0.9
Trenton Cannon29.7-2.45.0-0.41.1-0.4
Elijah McGuire28.8-6.89.6-2.36.9-3.3
Gus Edwards28.88.64.81.412.1-0.3
Josh Bellamy28.7-4.43.6-0.61.50.2
Damion Ratley28.2-27.1-0.500
Jordan Leggett28.1-8.23.5-1.07.3-2.9
Brandon LaFell28.19.47.02.400
Chris Moore27.82.72.80.31.10
James Develin27-9.73.0-1.100
Josh Hill26.47.63.81.100
Jordan Akins26.2-0.32.90.01.30.5
Alex Erickson25.8-12.64.3-2.100
Will Dissly25.510.16.42.500
Ian Thomas25.3-5.65.1-1.100
Raheem Mostert25.315.34.22.600
Travis Benjamin25-11.23.6-1.66.71
Luke Stocker24.53.43.10.41.21.2
Luke Willson24.2-4.32.7-0.51.20.2
Devonta Freeman24-9.912.0-5.000
Corey Grant23.8-4.14.8-0.800
Justin Hardy23.7-8.34.7-1.74.9-3.3
Austin Carr23.67.13.00.926.2
Maxx Williams23.543.90.700
Marvin Hall23.35.92.60.74.2-4.2
Dan Arnold23.15.94.61.210.93.6
Robert Foster23.19.93.91.74.313.1
Jaron Brown2311.33.81.91.2-1.2
Marcell Ateman22.8-9.211.4-4.615.3-10.7
Mo Alie-Cox22.76.53.81.100
Bennie Fowler22.6-5.44.5-1.15-0.7
Demetrius Harris22.35.43.70.900
C.J. Ham21.5-4.42.7-0.62.30
Tavon Austin21.416.13.62.700
Ronald Jones20.8-1.25.2-0.300
Niles Paul20.5-14.1-0.200
Hayden Hurst20.213.40.26.6-1.1
Logan Thomas20-1.83.3-0.31.6-1.6
Eric Tomlinson19.7-6.62.8-0.900
J.J. Nelson19.6-132.5-1.600
Rod Smith19.4-5.82.4-0.70.9-0.2
Rex Burkhead19.4-4.76.5-1.600
Zach Line19.1-6.62.7-0.900
Derek Carrier18.5-9.73.7-1.900
Breshad Perriman18.3-4.53.7-0.91.9-1.5
Josh Perkins18.1-6.46.0-2.100
T.J. Jones18.1-2.32.6-0.31.70.8
Jake Butt18-1.56.0-0.500
Tim Patrick17.80.83.00.100
Mark Walton17.6-6.13.5-1.200
C.J. Anderson17.62.22.50.300
Cody Core17.5-6.13.5-1.22.9-1.2
Blake Jarwin17.1-4.42.4-0.62.91.6
Michael Floyd16.9-7.63.4-1.500
Erik Swoope16.916.43.43.300
Cameron Meredith16.310.15.43.400
Trey Quinn16.16.48.13.29.34.3
DeAndre Washington15.8-6.54.0-1.63.1-0.4
Jermaine Gresham15.50.32.60.11.3-0.1
Justin Hunter15.4-10.35.1-3.400
Keith Kirkwood15.44.95.11.65.42.1
Stevan Ridley14.7-4.32.5-0.700
Logan Paulsen14.66.62.41.11.6-0.4
Neal Sterling14.4-3.73.6-0.900
Lee Smith14.3-0.54.8-0.241.9
Russell Shepard14.3-0.33.6-0.11.52.4
Seth DeValve14.30.14.80.000
Cameron Batson14.10.42.80.11.60.7
Darren Fells13.914.72.32.53.44.2
Jaylen Samuels13.92.13.50.52.3-0.1
Auden Tate13.7-8.74.6-2.910.5-7
Andre Roberts13.7-83.4-2.000
Scott Simonson13.4-8.33.4-2.100
Darren Sproles13.2-613.2-6.000
Cody Latimer13.23.64.41.200
Ed Dickson13.215.42.63.12.80.5
David Grinnage12.9-0.84.3-0.300
Marcus Johnson12.99.13.22.300
Nick O'Leary12.87.94.32.600
Tommy Bohanon12.7-4.32.5-0.95.9-2
Keith Smith12.6-6.44.2-2.100
Roc Thomas12.5-5.42.5-1.100
Deontay Burnett12.4-0.44.1-0.100
Kenjon Barner11.7-4.62.3-0.900
Delanie Walker11.7-2.511.7-2.500
Tyler Kroft11.5-3.92.3-0.800
Rico Gathers11.4-4.82.3-1.000
Eric Saubert11.3-52.8-1.300
Taquan Mizzell11.30.92.80.255.8
Alex Armah11.32.11.90.400
DaeSean Hamilton11.103.70.03.2-0.9
Levine Toilolo10.81.21.80.200
Dalton Schultz10.4-3.23.5-1.13-2.1
Kamar Aiken10.40.95.20.500
Shaun Wilson10.2-3.82.0-0.800
Dwayne Harris10.2-0.91.7-0.200
Anthony Sherman10.29.51.71.600
Isaiah McKenzie105.55.02.85.54.4
Jawill Davis9.9-5.25.0-2.600
Xavier Grimble9.72.31.90.52.31
Kalen Ballage9.6-21.6-0.33.3-1.8
David Morgan9.6-11.9-0.200
Garrett Celek9.62.32.40.600
Rishard Matthews9.5-5.43.2-1.800
Mike Boone9.5-2.71.6-0.500
Darius Jennings9.41.11.90.200
Antony Auclair9.10.52.30.11.30.5
De'Anthony Thomas9.13.43.01.100
Richie James8.85.62.91.93.21.5
Mike Gillislee8.7-2.52.2-0.600
A.J. Derby8.75.12.91.700
Justin Jackson8.51.82.80.63.62.1
Blake Bell8.20.32.70.11.50
Elijhaa Penny8.1-0.62.0-0.21.50.2
Matt Lengel8.10.72.00.21.5-1.5
Andy Janovich82.61.60.500
Kenneth Dixon7.92.57.92.500
Tyler Ervin7.8-1.32.0-0.300
Samaje Perine7.7-1.72.6-0.600
Kevin White7.72.33.91.200
Durham Smythe7.6-2.91.9-0.73.11.6
Vyncint Smith7.5-3.73.8-1.900
Dwayne Washington7.4-2.82.5-0.900
Ray-Ray McCloud7.3-0.51.5-0.100
Derrick Willies7.31.87.31.800
Jacob Hollister7.31.93.71.000
Jeremy Sprinkle7.2-7.22.4-2.400
Jamaal Charles6.9-3.53.5-1.800
Dion Sims6.3-3.43.2-1.700
Orson Charles6.2-2.81.6-0.700
Nick Williams6.2-2.52.1-0.800
Josh Malone6.1-3.93.1-2.000
Leonte Carroo6.112.73.16.43.311.1
Jeremy Kerley6-3.36.0-3.300
Chad Beebe5.82.12.91.100
Alan Cross5.7-4.11.9-1.400
Andy Jones5.6-4.25.6-4.25.6-4.2
Chris Manhertz5.5-4.32.8-2.22.4-2.4
Victor Bolden5.5-3.55.5-3.500
Ricky Ortiz5.4-2.72.7-1.400
Ben Braunecker5.4-11.8-0.300
Damien Williams5.3-0.41.1-0.100
Rashad Greene5.30.51.80.200
Roosevelt Nix5.31.31.80.400
Marcedes Lewis5.31.61.30.41.30.1
Mike Wallace5.2-5.25.2-5.200
Trent Sherfield5.2-22.6-1.02.4-0.8
Brian Quick5.2-0.42.6-0.200
Dwayne Allen50.71.70.200
Tre Madden50.81.00.21.22.6
Ameer Abdullah50.91.30.21.2-1.2
Jeff Wilson4.90.24.90.24.90.2
Derrick Coleman4.9-0.91.0-0.21.6-1.6
Hakeem Valles4.7-1.62.4-0.800
Charone Peake4.7-0.21.6-0.100
Brandon Powell4.6-34.6-3.000
Robert Turbin4.6-2.32.3-1.200
Terrance Williams4.5-0.72.3-0.400
Cole Wick4.4-4.44.4-4.400
Brian Parker4.4-4.41.5-1.51.5-1.5
Shelton Gibson4.41.42.20.700
DeAndre Carter4.42.11.50.71.41
Corey Coleman4.3-0.31.4-0.11.5-1.5
T.J. Logan4.20.72.10.41.50
Noah Brown4.1-0.94.1-0.94.1-0.9
C.J. Prosise3.912.00.500
Benny Cunningham3.8-1.11.3-0.400
MyCole Pruitt3.81.41.90.71.50.8
Sammie Coates3.6-1.41.8-0.700
Khadarel Hodge3.60.11.80.100
Dontrell Hilliard3.61.41.20.500
Freddie Martino3.3-3.33.3-3.300
Jonathan Williams3.3-2.21.1-0.700
De'Lance Turner3.30.81.70.400
Keon Hatcher3.2-1.43.2-1.43.2-1.4
Tyler Conklin3.20.11.60.100
Jeremy Hill3.20.93.20.900
Brandon Wilds3.1-1.61.0-0.500
Marcus Kemp3.1-1.41.6-0.700
Robert Tonyan Jr.3.19.31.64.700
Brice Butler3-31.5-1.51.6-1.6
Damiere Byrd3-1.21.5-0.600
Malik Turner3-0.13.0-0.13-0.1
Patrick DiMarco31.41.50.700
Jamize Olawale2.90.41.50.21.40.6
Jonathan Stewart2.8-1.10.9-0.400
Zach Zenner2.80.71.40.42.30
Jordan Franks2.82.91.41.500
Taiwan Jones2.7-2.71.4-1.400
Detrez Newsome2.6-1.11.3-0.62.2-0.7
Ross Dwelley2.5-0.72.5-0.700
Byron Marshall2.4-1.92.4-1.900
Tyrone Swoopes2.21.12.21.100
J'Mon Moore202.00.000
Mike Burton1.8-0.21.8-0.200
David Fluellen1.8-0.20.9-0.100
Stacy Coley1.7-1.71.7-1.700
Russell Gage1.70.21.70.200
Sean Culkin1.71.71.71.71.71.7
Johnny Holton1.6-1.61.6-1.61.6-1.6
Darrell Daniels1.6-1.61.6-1.600
Riley McCarron1.6-1.61.6-1.600
Jeremy McNichols1.6-1.21.6-1.200
Rob Kelley1.6-0.80.8-0.400
Khari Lee1.6-0.11.6-0.100
Cam Phillips1.60.31.60.300
Darrius Heyward-Bey1.60.31.60.300
Brandon Zylstra1.61.71.61.700
Tommylee Lewis1.68.21.68.21.68.2
Ryan Hewitt1.5-1.51.5-1.500
Justin Watson1.501.50.000
Geremy Davis1.4-1.41.4-1.41.4-1.4
Jehu Chesson1.4-1.41.4-1.400
Tim White1.411.41.000
Derek Watt1.3-10.7-0.500
Javon Wims1.2-1.21.2-1.200
Christine Michael1-0.11.0-0.100
Rod Streater0.5-1.60.5-1.600
Cameron Artis-Payne0.5-0.40.5-0.400
David Williams0.5-0.30.5-0.300
J.J. Jones0.1-0.10.1-0.100

Observations

  • Only one player is averaging as many targets per game as the season’s top-scoring WR Adam Thielen. That player? Thielen’s teammate Stefon Diggs. Screen Shot 2018-11-30 at 2.17.32 PMIf you want concentrated target share, Minnesota does it better than anyone. Diggs and Thielen account for 55 percent of the Vikings’ targets and an astonishing 71 percent of their air yards.Screen Shot 2018-11-30 at 2.18.47 PM Diggs and Thielen also rank first and second respectively in receiving expected points per game. Diggs is the only WR averaging more than 19 total EP per game.
  • Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler are averaging a combined 25.4 total expected points on the season. If that were one player, it would easily be the best mark in the league. It remains to be seen whether Ekeler will take over both workloads following Gordon’s injury. It’s possible he’ll slide into Gordon’s role, ceding his own to Justin Jackson or Detrez Newsome. In either case his upside is immense. He should be able to show why he was a favorite Zero-RB target this offseason.
  • After Christian McCaffrey’s league leading 33.4 total EP in Week 12, he’s making his case for inclusion in the dynasty top three. He’s been a top-three RB in three of the last four weeks, scoring at least 33 PPR points in those games. cmc splitsHe leads all RBs in targets and receiving EP in that stretch. He also leads all players in red-zone opportunities.cmc 9-12
  • Baker Mayfield has been able to turn his season around under Freddie Kitchens.mayfield splits Despite the Browns’ resurgence, Jarvis Landry remains the least efficient player in the NFL. The most disappointing aspect of Landry’s game, however, is the way his target volume has collapsed since Kitchens took over playcalling duties.landry splits Landry’s DraftKings salary has dropped $2,000 since Week 8. At $5,300, it’s arguably still too high for a player averaging only 34 yards per game. And to make matters worse, his opportunity continues to trend in the wrong direction.Screen Shot 2018-11-30 at 2.07.58 PM

  1. Rushing expected points plus receiving expected points.  (back)
  2. Although the first game of Week 13 has already been played, it’s not included in the data.  (back)

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