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DK Buffet Week 10: Key Stats and Matchups for the Main Slate

When I’m looking into the DFS slate each week, I like to go game by game and identify players or situations that intrigue me. In every game, on every team, there’s a situation that’s relevant for DFS purposes, either positive or negative reason. It informs us of how we should be attacking each slate.

Arizona Cardinals

Implied Team Total: 16.75

Spread: +16.5 @ Kansas City

A concerted effort was made to target Larry Fitzgerald ($5,400) last game. In fact, he’s seen at least eight targets in each of the past three weeks. Fitz has seen a team-highs in targets (53), air yards (481), and WOPR (0.52). His expected points have gone up in each of the past four weeks as well. If you’re unfamiliar with expected points, check out Blair Andrews’ Week 9 Review of EP. Over the past three games, he’s averaging 15.7 PPR Points compared to 6.92 to start the season.

fitz

Atlanta Falcons

Implied Team Total: 27.25

Spread: -4 @ Cleveland

The DK pricing algorithm realized that Julio Jones ($8,300) is a good receiver again. Julio is leading, or close to leading, every major category that we look for in a wide receiver on a per game basis. He’s top three in targets and leads the league in yards, air yards, and WOPR. Cleveland’s pass defense is middle of the road as far as allowing DK points. They’ve given up big games to target hogs like Antonio Brown and Michael Thomas, but they’ve also given it up to big play guys like Tyrell Williams. Julio is both.

julio

Buffalo Bills

Implied Team Total: 14.75

Spread: +7 @ NY Jets

In a vacuum, Kelvin Benjamin ($3,400) should be a good play. He’s dirt cheap and has seen the 14th most air yards in the league on a per game basis. Benjamin is just outside of the top 20 in WOPR. If you’re being objective, he’s seen 80-plus air yards in each of the past five weeks. We don’t live in a vacuum, though — that would suck . . . and so do the Bills.

Chicago Bears

Implied Team Total: 25.75

Spread: -6.5 vs. Detroit

It’s well documented that the tight end position is a bit gross this season. From an efficiency perspective, Trey Burton ($3,900) has been one of the best weapons for Mitch Trubisky ($5,600). Burton’s usage has been less than we’d hoped when Coach Matt Nagy came out and said that Burton would be occupying the same role in the offense as Travis Kelce from his days with the Chiefs. Either way, this stack makes sense. A QB-TE stack under $10,000 will open things up elsewhere and Trubisky has been good for fantasy recently. He was awful to start the season, but his past four games have been impressive. Trubisky was on a streak of four straight weeks as a QB1 before not needing to do much against Buffalo. He had rushed for at least 51 yards in each of those games. Even including last week’s one rush for six yards, he’s had the most rushing yards per game of any QB since Week 4. Nearly 30 percent of the closest comps from our Sim Scores app have resulted in 20-plus DK point days, with a median over 15 DK points.

mitch

Cincinnati Bengals

Implied Team Total: 24.25

Spread: -5.5 vs. New Orleans

A 5.5-point underdog at home is a bit of an odd spot for a running back. If you believe the game plays close the whole way, Joe Mixon ($7,700) makes sense. In games where Cincinnati has gone on to win, or stay within a touchdown, Mixon has paid off his salary. If you think that the game gets away from the Bengals, then your expectations should be tempered. Just two games ago, they were boat raced by the Chiefs and he saw just 13 carries and five targets. The Bengals will soak up a bit of ownership with Mixon and Tyler Boyd ($7,500) as some of the more popular options at their respective positions.

 

mixon

Cleveland Browns

Implied Team Total: 23.25

Spread: +4 vs. Atlanta

Duke Johnson ($4,700) seems like a screaming value at his price this week. He’s coming off of a nine-catch performance in the first game of the Freddie Kitchens era. Expecting the touchdowns to continue is points chasing, obviously, but there’s reason for optimism that he’ll see that type of target share moving forward. Jokes about defense mattering aside, we know that Atlanta has struggled to stop pass-catching running backs. If the Browns fall behind, they’ll need to throw it around to keep up with a high-powered Falcons offense.

Detroit Lions

Implied Team Total: 19.25

Spread: +6.5 @ Chicago

The first game for the Golden Tate-less Lions saw Marvin Jones ($5,500) out-target Kenny Golladay ($5,100) eight to four. Jones continued his streak of seeing at least one red-zone target in each game this season. He caught six of eight targets for 66 yards and failed to find the end zone against a difficult Minnesota pass defense. If Jones continues to see red zone targets and over 30 percent of the air yards, which has been the case in all but one game this season, he’ll continue to be in play each week.

marv

Green Bay Packers

Implied Team Total: 28.75

Spread: -10 vs. Miami

Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($5,000) is a name that will be popular this weekend. As things stand now, he projects to be the highest owned wide receiver on the main slate. The second highest? His teammate Davante Adams ($7,800). Valdes-Scantling worries me a bit this week. He’s fine for cash, but eating that chalk is worrisome given his usage. It’s easy to look at 101 yards last week and get excited, but it came on three catches. It’s a cushy matchup, and I get it, but there’s a fade argument to be made in GPPs.

Indianapolis Colts

Implied Team Total: 25

Spread: -3 vs. Jacksonville

As far as I can tell, this is one of the cheapest prices we’ve ever gotten for TY Hilton ($5,700) with Andrew Luck ($5,500). Luck has had no qualms with targeting Hilton in tough matchups. Since the start of 2016, the Colts have faced a Top 5 pass defense on four occasions. In those games, Hilton averages more catches, more targets, and more PPR points. Over the past 38 games, Hilton also averages over seven more PPR points at home with Luck.

hilton

Jacksonville Jaguars

Implied Team Total: 22

Spread: +3 @ Indianapolis

The return of Leonard Fournette ($6,300) is here. The Jaguars are road underdogs and Fournette has actually performed well in that spot before. In three such games, he averages 23.5 PPR Points thanks to an increased workload on the ground. The Jags make a clear effort to take the air out of the ball when they’re on the road, in general. Fournette sees the same number of targets at home and on the road but averages about three extra rushes on the road.  

fournette

Kansas City Chiefs

Implied Team Total: 33.25

Spread: -16.5 vs. Arizona

None of Patrick Mahomes’ ($7,200) favorite targets are below a 9.0 AYA through this point in the season. Anytime a team is implied to score over 30 points, they can be stacked up in just about any way imaginable. Ownership will center around Kareem Hunt ($8,500) with a spread this large, but all of the skill players are in play if they hit their implied total. Paying for Travis Kelce ($7,000) is an interesting move in GPPs that can put you on a different roster construction than a lot of other teams.

 

mahomes

Los Angeles Chargers

Implied Team Total: 30

Spread: -10 @ Oakland

Melvin Gordon ($9,000), anyone? In games where the Chargers are favored by a touchdown or more over the past two seasons, Gordon averages 24.6 PPR points which is nearly five more than in other game situations. According to the SimScores app, Gordon’s closest comps have broken 20 DK Points 35 percent of the time.

melgordon

Los Angeles Rams

Implied Team Total: 30.5

Spread: -10 vs. Seattle

Another progressive offense, another 30+ point implied team total. The Rams are projected to bludgeon the Seahawks this weekend. When the Rams have been favored by five or more points under Sean McVay, Todd Gurley ($9,400) has averaged over 30 PPR Points. Exactly 40 percent of Gurley’s closest comps per the SimScores app have been 20-plus DK point efforts.

gurley

Miami Dolphins

Implied Team Total: 18.75

Spread: +10 @ Green Bay

No one on the Dolphins is projected to be particularly owned. They’re currently implied for under 20 points which usually doesn’t lead to much, if any, fantasy production. Danny Amendola ($4,500) is a dart throw at this price, but he’s seen at least six targets in each of the past four games. During that stretch, he’s exceeded salary based expectations each game. With a 17-point ceiling, per the SimScore app, you could make an argument for Mr. Amendola as an option in a GPP lineup.

amendola

New England Patriots

Implied Team Total: 26.5

Spread: -6.5 @ Tennessee

Of receivers that have been targeted by Tom Brady ($6,000) at least 35 times, Josh Gordon ($6,000) has the highest AYA. Gordon is the 13th most expensive WR on the main slate this week. After being eased in to start his Patriots career, he’s seen at least six targets in each of the past four weeks. During that stretch, he’s seen the fifth most air yards of any WR in the league. Per Michael Dubner’s touchdown expectation article, Gordon is a full touchdown below what we’d expect over that stretch. If he continues to see usage like this, we could be in for a monster game soon.

jgordon

New Orleans Saints

Implied Team Total: 29.75

Spread: -5.5 @ Cincinnati

Over the past six weeks, Michael Thomas ($8,100) has caught 42 of 49 targets for 611 yards. That puts his TD expectation up around 4.4, but he’s only scored two touchdowns in that span. Drew Brees’ ($6,300) home-road splits are well-documented, but Thomas has largely been immune to them in his career. He only scores 0.3 fewer PPR points in road games.

thomas

New York Jets

Implied Team Total: 21.75

Spread: -7 vs. Buffalo

This seems like the type of game where we’d want a running back. Home favorites by a touchdown? Sign me up. I’m not sure this is Isaiah Crowell’s backfield anymore, though. Elijah McGuire ($3,400) is basically free. He outsnapped Crowell 36 – 23 last week. If we’re going to see four to six targets and 7-10 carries from McGuire at that price, there’s relatively little he can do to torpedo lineups this weekend.

Oakland Raiders

Implied Team Total: 20

Spread: +10 vs. LA Chargers

This has all the makings of a blowout. The Raiders could be getting 14 and you could argue it was fair. They’ve lost five different games by 2 or more touchdowns. Instead of playing a banged up, two-down back, why not play the third-down back Jalen Richard ($4,800). He’s had at least five targets in all but two games this season. It’s not the most exciting play in the world, but a cheap RB with usage in the passing game is always worth a look.

Seattle Seahawks

Implied Team Total: 20.5

Spread: +10 @ LA Rams

Objectively, David Moore ($3,900) is a pretty gross option. He seemed to luck into a touchdown every game for a short stretch there. Moore scored four touchdowns in three games on a total of 11 targets — completely unsustainable. Then, he sees seven targets last week and is only able to reel in two of them. The Seahawks will need to throw to keep up with this high-powered Rams offense. That puts Russell Wilson ($5,700) in play as well for GPP consideration.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Implied Team Total: 27.25

Spread: -3 vs. Washington

Going with Adam Humphries ($3,900) might feel like points chasing, but I’m not sure it is. Humphries’ snap share has gone up recently, as he was only on the sideline for 12 of 67 snaps last week. He made the best of his snaps, catching all eight of his targets for 82 yards and two touchdowns. You obviously can’t bank on those touchdowns coming every week, but he’s seen 27 targets over the past three games which is excellent usage for a WR under $4,000.

Tennessee Titans

Implied Team Total: 20

Spread: +6.5 vs. New England

This seems like a classic bully game by the Patriots. Former player turned coach going up against Bill Belichick. If that’s true and the Titans have to throw a bunch to keep up, Marcus Mariota ($4,700) makes sense at this price. He’s down in the Beathard-ian range of DK salary. I guess you could say he got the MNF discount to a certain extent. Mariota put up 23 DK points against the Cowboys and gets a positive game script this week.

Washington

Implied Team Total: 24.25

Spread: +3 vs. Tampa Bay

Water is wet, the sky is blue, and Jordan Reed ($4,400) is on the injury report. Chris Thompson ($5,400) looks questionable after missing practice to start off the week. Adrian Peterson ($5,700) is utterly game-script dependent and they’re underdogs. If only there was a receiver that might be able to exploit the worst secondary in the league . . . enter the savior, Josh Doctson ($4,300). There aren’t any more efficient pass catchers for Washington that are healthy. Doctson has seen at least five targets in each of the past four weeks.

wash

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