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DK Buffet Week 11: Key Stats and Matchups for the Main Slate

When I’m looking into the DFS slate each week, I like to go game by game and identify players or situations that intrigue me. In every game, on every team, there’s a situation that’s relevant for DFS purposes, either positive or negative reason. It informs us of how we should be attacking each slate.

Arizona Cardinals

Implied Team Total: 22.5

Spread: -4 vs. Oakland

David Johnson’s ($7,500) price still hasn’t come up to his usage for the Leftwich era. Johnson hadn’t had that big spike game with McCoy at the helm and it was difficult to stomach rostering him. This week is a totally different story. Now you have a guy who’s averaging 25 opportunities over his last two games. If you listened to the RotoViz Radio this week, you know I believe that Johnson is locked in as one of the top three RBs for the rest of the season. By Week 14, he’ll be $8,800 and you’ll be wishing his price was this low. Oh, and they’re playing Oakland.

djAtlanta Falcons

Implied Team Total: 25.75

Spread: -3.5 vs. Dallas

Julio Jones ($8,500) is a touchdown scoring machine. He’s now found the end zone in two straight and is the second highest WR on the slate. While the touchdowns might not continue, his volume will. Jones is third in targets per game among wide receivers. The Sim Scores app loves Julio this week. A 17-point median and a nearly 27 DK point ceiling is something I’ll sign up for at this, or any, price. Over 40 percent of the closest historical comps for Julio this week resulted in 20-plus DK Point days.

julio

Baltimore Ravens

Implied Team Total: ?

Spread: ? vs. Cincinnati

The decision hasn’t yet been announced as to who will be under center for the Ravens come Sunday. Both Robert Griffin ($4,700) and Lamar Jackson ($4,700) are priced the same. I’m not sure how this offense as a whole will function in Joe Flacco’s absence, and I’m not sure I’m willing to find out.

Carolina Panthers

Implied Team Total: 27.25

Spread: -3.5 @ Detroit

The knock on the running back in Carolina has been that he doesn’t score touchdowns. Now, Christian McCaffrey ($8,000) has scored in each of the past three games. He’s also hit a few spike games in a row with back-to-back 30-point outings. It doesn’t translate into a huge spike in scoring output, but McCaffrey does see a higher floor of touches in games where the Panthers are favored in general. As a road favorite, though, he hasn’t fared quite as well, averaging just 12.3 PPR Points in his three games under that scenario.

cmc

Cincinnati Bengals

Implied Team Total: ?

Spread: ? @ Baltimore

Despite the QB situation in Baltimore being unclear, I’m not sure there’s a ton of value in this spot. Baltimore’s defense has been excellent on the ground and through the air. They rank top seven in both pass and rush DVOA, per Football Outsiders. Tyler Boyd ($7,000) is appropriately priced this week as the eleventh most expensive WR and Joe Mixon ($7,100) is among the better options at RB. The argument could be made for Mixon in a GPP at extremely low ownership, but neither option should be on your cash radar.

Dallas Cowboys

Implied Team Total: 22.25

Spread: +3.5 @ Atlanta

Amari Cooper ($5,400) has seen an average of nine targets over the past two weeks. He’s seeing valuable targets in Dallas with six red zone targets in that timeframe as well. During his time with Oakland, he only saw one game with any red-zone targets and had three weeks with 20 or fewer air yards. So far with the Cowboys, he’s seen at least 78 air yards in both starts.

cooper

Denver Broncos

Implied Team Total: 19.5

Spread: +7.5 @ LA Chargers

Courtland Sutton ($4,600) was the soup du jour a few weeks ago. He was priced at $3,900 and found his way into over 25% of lineups. Now, it’s a couple weeks later and his price only went up $700 but won’t be highly owned. Sutton’s price didn’t spike because he only saw five targets in his first game without Demaryius Thomas as a Bronco. But, what if after the bye week, they make an effort to get him involved in the game plan? He has a reasonable floor of targets considering his price in a game that they should be playing from behind.

Screen Shot 2018-11-16 at 3.54.13 PM

Detroit Lions

Implied Team Total: 23.75

Spread: +3.5 vs. Carolina

Marvin Jones ($5,200) looks very questionable as we head into the weekend. He’s yet to practice because of a bone bruise on his knee. Kenny Golladay ($5,800) would be the most obvious beneficiary. He saw the usage bump that we were hoping for in the post-Tate era. Carolina has been middle of the pack against WRs and Kenny G is coming off of a game where he saw a 0.84 WOPR which was his highest number of the season.

golladay

Houston Texans

Implied Team Total: 22.5

Spread: -3 @ Washington

DeAndre Hopkins ($7,900) is below $8,000 once again. I guess 105 yards with a touchdown on 12 targets is something that doesn’t pop in the DK pricing algorithm. Hopkins has only been owned in the double-digits once when he’s been on the main slate this year. He’s scored 15-plus DK Points in five of those six weeks. The Stat Explorer projections like him quite a bit as well.

hopkins

Indianapolis Colts

Implied Team Total: 25.5

Spread: -2 vs. Tennessee

Andrew Luck ($5,900) may go overlooked this weekend. With the top-four QBs in price soaking up a lot of the ownership or people looking to go very cheap and save at the position, Luck sits in a very interesting spot. He averages 28 PPR points when he’s at home in a game with a total above 48 over the past two-plus seasons that he’s played.

luck

Jacksonville Jaguars

Implied Team Total: 21

Spread: +5 vs. Pittsburgh

Any worries about Leonard Fournette’s ($6,900) workload were quickly silenced in his return last week. He played just 39 snaps but saw 29 opportunities. Fournette wasn’t exactly efficient on the ground with just 53 yards on 24 carries, but he fell into the end zone and contributed in the passing game.

Los Angeles Chargers

Implied Team Total: 27

Spread: -7.5 vs. Denver

The Chargers are big home favorites against the Broncos this week. When the Chargers are favored by at least five points Melvin Gordon ($8,900) averages over 20 PPR points. Some people in the DFS community want to make Austin Ekeler ($) a thing, but despite all his talent, he still isn’t cutting into Gordon’s workload. Melvin has seen at least 20 opportunities in all but two games this season.

gordon

New Orleans Saints

Implied Team Total: 32

Spread: -8 vs. Philadelphia

Michael Thomas ($8,800) has caught 90 percent of his targets this season. That isn’t a typo — 90 percent. Besides air yards, there isn’t a major statistical category in which he is worse than 11th at WR on a per game basis. Thomas has found the end zone seven times and will most likely have over 1,000 yards for the season when the sun goes down on Sunday. Since the bye, he’s score less than 20 points just once in four games.

thomas

New York Giants

Implied Team Total: 27

Spread: -2 vs. Tampa Bay

We like game script-independent RBs. There’s no way a less talented RB sees this type of volume on a team like the Giants. He had his worst output of the season last week scoring just 14 PPR points. Even then, Saquon Barkley ($8,700) saw the volume. In this type of game against one of the worst defenses in the league, there’s a chance we see his highest DK scoring output of the season on Sunday.

barkley

Oakland Raiders

Implied Team Total: 18

Spread: +5 @ Arizona

Jordy Nelson ($3,700) looks extremely questionable this week after missing practice again Thursday. Martavis Bryant appears to have torn his PCL and will miss time. That leaves Jared Cook ($3,900) and Jalen Richard ($4,300) as the only viable pass-catching options. Cook has had spike games but has been inconsistent, to say the least. Richard is interesting at his price. He has seen anywhere from four to eight targets over the past month of games.

Philadelphia Eagles

Implied Team Total: 24

Spread: +8 @ New Orleans

Zach Ertz ($6,600) is the guy that is seeing the safest usage in Philadelphia. If you view him as a WR, which you should, his numbers are still impressive. Ertz would be fifth in targets, seventh in points per game, third in receptions, and eleventh in touchdowns. Those numbers would get a price approaching the $8,000 range as a WR, but he’s only $6,600 since he’s a tight end.

ertz

Pittsburgh Steelers

Implied Team Total: 26

Spread: -5 @ Jacksonville

James Conner’s ($7,200) ownership isn’t going to be what it should this week. He’s just below David Johnson, who’s shaping up to be the highest-owned RB, which should mean Conner goes under-owned relative to his ceiling. The Stat Explorer projections actually like Conner quite a bit. He sports the highest median and ceiling projections of any RB on the main slate.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Implied Team Total: 25

Spread: +2 @ New York Giants

Over the past two seasons, Mike Evans ($7,300) has averaged more PPR points in games with Ryan Fitzpatrick ($5,600). That’s including the slump that he’s been in the past two weeks. The volume hasn’t gone anywhere, as he’s averaged 10 targets per game over the past four weeks. We know that volume is king in fantasy football and performance is cyclical. Since the start of October, his volume should’ve translated into nearly three touchdowns, but he’s only found the end zone once. A spike game is coming at some point soon for Evans.

Tennessee Titans

Implied Team Total: 23.5

Spread: +2 @ Indianapolis

Dion Lewis ($4,800) appears to be one of the chalkiest options at RB this week. It’s a bit surprising since he disappointed so many owners last week but it speaks to how sharp the community is becoming. In years past, a scoring dud like that might keep people away. Lewis was on the field for 49-of-65 snaps and saw his highest carry total of the season. The targets weren’t there since they were playing from ahead and the touchdowns on the ground went to Derrick Henry. This game should be close and Lewis’ role seems very secure.

Washington

Implied Team Total: 19.5

Spread: +3 vs. Houston

Maurice Harris ($4,500) is still very affordable and seems to be carving out a role in this offense. With Chris Thompson ($5,000) listed as doubtful, those low aDOT targets could still be funneling towards Harris. Harris hasn’t found the end zone yet, but if the volume continues, you’d expect him to start scoring.

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