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DK Buffet Week 13: Key Stats and Matchups for the Main Slate

When I’m looking into the DFS slate each week, I like to go game by game and identify players or situations that intrigue me. In every game, on every team, there’s a situation that’s relevant for DFS purposes, either positive or negative reason. It informs us of how we should be attacking each slate.

Arizona Cardinals

Implied Total: 15.25

Spread: +14 @ Green Bay

The Cardinals got bludgeoned last time out and Josh Rosen ($4,900) still only threw the ball 19 times. David Johnson ($7,400) is finally seeing a price increase and is bordering on becoming too pricey. He’s averaging just 13 PPR points over the last two weeks, largely due to a lack of finding the end zone. With just 15 implied team points, I think his touchdown expectation is too low to roster him at that price as a huge road underdog. So far this year, 26 percent of his points have come from touchdowns.

DJ

 

Atlanta Falcons

Implied Total: 24.75

Spread: -1 vs Baltimore

Julio Jones ($7,900) is coming off of a rare game without finding the end zone. He’s the sixth most expensive receiver this week in a tough matchup. Julio has seen at least nine targets in each game since the bye and is now seeing red zone usage. He went from Week 2 to Week 9 with zero red zone targets but has seen six in the past three weeks. The usage will continue to be there and his ceiling is as high whether

julio

Baltimore Ravens

Implied Total: 25

Spread: +1 @ Atlanta

The other side of that matchup is the Ravens. Gus Edwards ($4,800) and Alex Collins ($3,900) both missed practice on Wednesday. The immediate reaction would be to think about the other guys in the backfield. If Edwards plays, we know what can be done against Atlanta as far as running back production goes. Lamar Jackson ($5,900) makes sense at his price too, though. The SimScores have him with a median projection of 17.6 and a ceiling of nearly 25 points. He’s averaging 95 yards on the ground over the past two weeks.

jackson

Buffalo Bills

Implied Total: 18

Spread: +4 @ Miami

In theory, you attack the Dolphins on the ground. Both the SimScores app and the Stat Explorer are not thrilled with the outlook for LeSean McCoy ($4,900) even at his cheap price. McCoy is coming off a very inefficient week, though, and I’m not sure even the matchup makes it worth it.

mccoy

Carolina Panthers

Implied Total: 29.25

Spread: -3.5 @ Tampa Bay

The only question about Christian McCaffrey ($8,800) is how much exposure you want to him. Not if you want exposure to him. The floor is obviously there. He’s had at least six targets in every game since the bye. McCaffrey has the same number of receptions as Antonio Brown this season, which is ninth most of all receivers. His receiving production alone would put him at WR19 this season. That’s not even factoring in the 757 rushing yards and five scores he has on the ground. Oh, and he’s playing Tampa Bay’s Swiss cheese defense.

cmc

Chicago Bears

Implied Total: ?

Spread: ? @ New York Giants

Chase Daniel ($4,800) looked like a more than capable backup QB on Thanksgiving day. He completed over 70 percent of his passes and threw for 230 yards and two touchdowns. Daniel didn’t light the world on fire but he proved that he can hit value if you’re looking to save some salary.  

Cincinnati Bengals

Implied Total: 19.75

Spread: +4.5 vs Denver

Another cheap QB option that people will be considering is Jeff Driskel ($4,500) this weekend. I don’t think you need to dip down this low at quarterback this weekend with plenty of options in the mid-tier but the matchup is reasonable. The Broncos have given up at least 19 points to each of the past four QBs they’ve faced.

Cleveland Browns

Implied Total: 21

Spread: +6 @ Houston

Enough about signal callers that we don’t want to play, let’s talk about one we do want to play. Baker Mayfield ($5,600) had his second straight game completing over 70 percent of his passes with zero interceptions. In those two games, he’s thrown seven touchdowns so far. He’s been on a steady rise in fantasy production over the past four weeks and is at a very reasonable price. The Stat Explorer projections give him a median of 22 points, which you’ll definitely take at this price.

baker

Denver Broncos

Implied Total: 24.25

Spread: -4 @ Cincinnati

Phillip Lindsay ($5,400) is in a great spot this weekend as a favorite. Over the past four weeks, he’s seen an average of 15 rushes per game. Cincinnati’s defense is ranked just twenty-third against running backs when it comes to fantasy points allowed. Lindsay can contribute in the passing attack too, as he’s averaging just under three targets per game on the season.

lindsay

Detroit Lions

Implied Total: 22.25

Spread: +10 vs Los Angeles Rams

The Lions are going to be trailing from the start if Vegas is correct. They are going to be trailing in the middle. And they’ll be trailing at the end. We might get three quarters of garbage time this weekend in Detroit. Over the past three weeks, Kenny Golladay ($6,700) has averaged 6-plus catches on 12 targets per game. Over that stretch, he’s seen 426 total air yards. His WOPR is 0.87 over that stretch, which would put him as the overall WR1 in that category across the season.

golladayGreen Bay Packers

Implied Total: 29.25

Spread: -14 vs. Arizona

This is a smash spot for the Packers this week. You can confidently play Aaron Rodgers ($6,200), Aaron Jones ($6,700), and Davante Adams ($7,900) this weekend. Together. Alone. Doesn’t really matter. The Stat Explorer has that trio with ceilings over 20 PPR points. Any team that recently lost to Oakland is one that shouldn’t strike much fear in the heart of their opponents.

packer

Houston Texans

Implied Total: 27

Spread: -6 vs. Cleveland

We’ve seen target hogs like Michael Thomas, Amari Cooper, and Antonio Brown (twice) get there against Cleveland this year. The offensive identity may be forming as a running offense which puts Lamar Miller ($4,600) in play, but that doesn’t mean we should be ignoring DeAndre Hopkins ($8,200). The raw targets have dropped a bit, but his usage in relation to the offense hasn’t. He’s still been above 0.7 WOPR and leads the league in that category this season. Hopkins is top ten in every other relevant receiving category on a per game basis.

hopkins

Indianapolis Colts

Implied Total: 25.75

Spread: -4 @ Jacksonville

I’m having a hard time understanding why Andrew Luck ($5,800) is below $6,000 this week. He’s now thrown at least three touchdowns in each of his past eight games and multiple touchdowns in all but one game. Luck has scored at least 20 DK points in all but two games this season.

luck

Jacksonville Jaguars

Implied Total: 21.75

Spread: +4 vs Indianapolis

The decision between Carlos Hyde ($3,300) and T.J. Yeldon ($4,400) is one that will be discussed ad nauseam this weekend. If you’re paying a bit more for Yeldon, it makes sense to pivot elsewhere (see: Miller, Lamar). If you are really going dumpster diving, Hyde has a reasonable median projection, but he probably doesn’t have access to much of a ceiling. Hyde is ok in cash, but there are better options than both of these backs in GPPs.

Kansas City Chiefs

Implied Total: 35.25

Spread: -15.5 @ Oakland

Kansas City is completely stackable this week. They’re all expensive for that very reason, but any combination of Patrick Mahomes ($7,600), Kareem Hunt ($7,800), Tyreek Hill ($9,100), and Travis Kelce ($7,000) makes sense in GPPs. Mahomes leads the way with a 36 point ceiling, but even the skill position players have at least 20 point upside in this game, per the Stat Explorer.

kcLos Angeles Rams

Implied Total: 32.25

Spread: -10 @ Detroit

My love for Jared Goff ($6,400) is well documented at this point. I’m not sure how you avoid him in cash this week. Mahomes is $1,200 more expensive and his team is only implied to score three more points than the Rams. That seems like too large of a price jump when the point expectation is so similar. Goff has been above 17 DK points in nine games this season.

goff

Miami Dolphins

Implied Total: 22

Spread: -4 vs. Buffalo

In DFS we always talk about being early on a guy. It’s a total gut call, but Kenny Stills ($3,800) is worth a GPP dart throw. Last week against Indianapolis, he saw the most targets in a game since Week 5. His aDOT ballooned back up to 15 in that game. If they’re going to take shots with Stills again, those targets are extremely valuable. It only takes one play at that price.

Minnesota Vikings

Implied Total: 21.5

Spread: +5.5 @ New England

Stefon Diggs ($7,600) is averaging 13.75 targets over the past four games. Adam Thielen ($8,000) is averaging 11 targets on the season. I’m willing to bet that the head coach from New England realizes all of that. The Patriots rarely let you use your best weapons, which means that there’s a possibility that they try to funnel targets into the middle of the field. Kyle Rudolph ($3,600) makes for an interesting GPP play if you can tell yourself that story. He’s averaging six targets over his past two games which is a solid number in the wasteland that is TE this year.

New England Patriots

Implied Total: 27

Spread: -5.5 vs Minnesota

The TE on the other side of the ball from Rudolph is no slouch himself. Rob Gronkowski ($5,400) returned to doing Gronk things last week against the Jets. The volume was there but the efficiency wasn’t. He’ll be playing back to back weeks for the first time since Week 5, though, and the rhythm should start to return with him and Tom Brady. It’s safe to say that this is the last time we could see Gronk under $6,000.

New York Giants

Implied Total: ?

Spread: ? vs Chicago

Outside of a matchup with the juggernaut 49ers defense, Saquon Barkley ($7,900) hasn’t scored fewer than 20 PPR points. Chicago might not seem like the ideal matchup, but there aren’t many running backs that are less dependent on game script than Barkley. Even this coaching staff can’t screw up Barkley’s production.

barkley

New York Jets

Implied Total: 16.5

Spread: +7.5 @ Tennessee

Jermaine Kearse ($4,000) has seen at least nine targets in four of his past six games. As underdogs by more than a touchdown, you’d have to imagine that the passing volume will be up again this week. Kearse is surrounded by super thin plays in the same price range and makes sense if you’re trying to pay up for the big guns at one of the other positions. kearse

Oakland Raiders

Implied Total: 19.75

Spread: +15.5 vs Kansas City

Oakland is playing at home this weekend and is still getting over two touchdowns. Marcell Ateman ($3,600) saw 10 targets last week and exactly 100 air yards. If that type of target volume continues, you’d expect some points to come. It’s a little concerning that he only managed to turn those air yards into five PPR points.

San Francisco 49ers

Implied Total: 18

Spread: +10 @ Seattle

Heading into the bye week, George Kittle ($5,900) had been used on short routes with an aDOT of just four in each game. They came out of the bye against Tampa Bay and doubled his aDOT. That’s an encouraging sign, as longer targets are obviously more valuable. You’d hope that another game with a dozen targets would end up with more than just a dozen fantasy points, but the volume will continue to be there for the emerging, young TE.

kittle

Seattle Seahawks

Implied Total: 28

Spread:  -10 vs San Francisco

It’s a pretty simple if-then statement with Seattle’s offense. If Tyler Lockett ($5,800) is playing football this weekend, then play Tyler Lockett. He’s only had one game where he really killed you. Lockett has had double-digit points in all but one game this year. The Stat Explorer gives him a ceiling projection of 22 PPR Points this weekend.

Lockett

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Implied Total: 25.75

Spread: +3.5 vs Carolina

Over the past two weeks, Jameis Winston ($6,000) seems to have turned a corner. He’s completed over 75 percent of his passes in each of those games and has thrown four touchdowns to just one interception. In Weeks 6-8, he threw eight interceptions, so it’s a marked improvement. He goes against a Panthers defense in a game with a high total and a pass defense that can be beat.

winston

Tennessee Titans

Implied Total: 24

Spread: -7.5 vs New York Jets

Corey Davis’ ($5,500) fantasy output is a bit of an enigma. The New England game in Week 10 shows the volume he gets and the output we should expect from that volume. Ten targets, monster game, top-five WR finish. Last week, he had a top-five WR finish as well, but on only four targets. In fact, he’s only seen four targets in each of the past two weeks. On a per-game basis across the season, his volume is a proven commodity at a price that is enticing. In a plus matchup, we should see Davis’ usage come back up.

davis

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