RotoViz provides advice on players to target and fade on your fantasy football waiver wire.
Week 10 Waiver Wire Advice
I’ll present players by positional tiers, from most desirable to acquire (1) to least (3). Availability in ESPN leagues is shown in parentheses. This week I enlisted the help of a half-dozen fellow RotoViz scribes to help rank the players.
Quarterbacks – Tier 1 – Worth a Bid
Check out Giana Pacinelli’s weekly Streaming QB column for more advice.
Ryan Fitzpatrick (30%)
How’s that for a nice rest-of-season schedule? Only Patrick Mahomes (31.9) is averaging more points per game than Fitzpatrick (29). There’s a chance Jameis Winston starts again later in the season, but Fitzpatrick makes a great fill-in for as long as he’s starting.
Quarterbacks – Tier 2 – Roll the Dice
Eli Manning (94%)
The appeal here is mainly the nice fantasy schedule.
If Manning makes you feel queasy, try Joe Flacco instead.
Tight Ends – Tier 1 – Modest Bid
Mark Andrews (97%)
He’s leading Hayden Hurst in targets 11 – 5 over the past two weeks and over the past three weeks, Andrews is 12th in expected points for TEs. He’s also been one of Joe Flacco’s most efficient targets.
Chris Herndon (87%)
Herndon has been his quarterback’s best target.
Over the past three weeks, he’s 10th in tight end expected points and 13th in target share.
Tight Ends – Tier 3 – Maybe
Ben Watson (52%) – He’s 14th in targets and 15th in expected points at the position since Week 7.
Jeff Heuerman (92%) – He received a quarter of his season-to-date targets last week. A fluke, or a sign of the way things could be now that Demaryius Thomas is gone? At a position as thin as TE, it’s worth a small bid to find out. Heuerman now has five or more targets in four of his past five games.
Running Backs – Tier 1 – YOLO
Looking for players with high potential ceilings. I’m not so much paying for current production as much as I’m hoping to catch a big jump in usage.
Duke Johnson (50%)
Johnson’s season is a disappointment, but Cleveland changed coordinators last week and promptly gave Johnson nine targets. Since Week 7, Cleveland’s backfield usage is stark.
Nothing suggests Johnson will get much rushing work, but also nothing suggests Chubb should get more receiving work. Add Johnson’s history of production, new coaching staff, and the apparent stranglehold on pass catching work, and there’s a decent chance Johnson is a solid player down the stretch.
Mike Davis (81%)
Seattle’s remaining fantasy schedule for RBs looks very tasty.
Chris Carson appears questionable at best for this week and perhaps beyond. Seattle is fifth in rushing attempts, so the backfield has some value. Even with Carson injured last week, Rashaad Penny was hardly involved, so the more limited Carson is, the more Davis should prosper.
Ito Smith (68%)
Smith has double-digit points in three of his past five games. He also looks a lot1 like other backs with better reputations.Chances are those other guys are rostered, but Ito Smith is widely available and until Devonta Freeman returns (which may not happen), he’s locked into a role with a good offense. Don’t forget the upside if Tevin Coleman misses time.
Theo Riddick (83%)
Now that Golden Tate is gone, 10 targets per game have opened up. Riddick had 71, 67, and 99 targets the past three seasons. So far 2018 hasn’t turned out that way, but perhaps he’ll reestablish himself. Week 9 was a promising sign.
Running Backs – Tier 2 – Should be rostered, modest bids
These players have been written up in recent weeks and have fairly clear situations. Most are low upside, but usable floor players. Hopefully, you don’t need to start them, but if you do, they probably won’t kill your week.
Jalen Richard (46%) – Pass catching plus negative game script FTW.
Doug Martin (43%) – Something something lead back in a committee. Seriously though, both Oakland backs should get enough opportunity to be useful. I prefer Richard the Receiver.
Devontae Booker (75%) – Contingent on the health of Denver’s other RBs, but Booker gets decent usage when one of the others is out or limited.
Running Backs – Tier 3 – Long shots, small bids
Elijah McGuire (91%) and Trenton Cannon (91%) – The offense is weak, the pecking order is unclear. But Bilal Powell ain’t walking through that door.
Wide Receivers – Tier 1 – Yes Please!
As with running backs, I’m paying up for players that have high potential ceilings.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling (79%)
Valdes-Scantling had five total targets in the first four weeks of the season. He hasn’t had fewer than five in any of the next four games. Just for fun, here are two comps based on the last four weeks.
Geronimo Allison may need surgery, and Randall Cobb isn’t doing much. His rest of season schedule also features four games against defenses in the bottom half of the league in terms of points allowed to wide receivers. Did I mention Valdes-Scantling hasn’t gone under 12 points in the last four games?
Courtland Sutton (36%)
Last week was Jeff Heuerman’s week, but Sutton will almost certainly be getting more work over the rest of the season. Demaryius Thomas had 20 percent of Denver’s targets before he got traded; those aren’t all going to Heuerman or even Emmanuel Sanders. Sutton’s got draft pedigree and newfound opportunity to go along with this schedule.
Adam Humphries (93%)
Bear with me. Over the past four weeks, these are the WRs most similar to Humphries.
I’m not saying Humphries is as good as those guys. Humphries has the weakest market share of that group, so his status here is2 the most fragile. But the usage can’t be denied. Let’s focus on just Tampa Bay WRs.
Humphries has been the Buccaneer’s No. 2 WR in terms of expected points and market share and has been by far their most efficient as well.
Wide Receivers – Tier 2 – Small Bids
These players should definitely be rostered and can help you in a pinch, but all have some obvious drawbacks as well. Spread around some small bids; someone should make it to your roster.
Tre’Quan Smith (83%) – He might be the WR2 behind Michael Thomas, but he’s still behind Alvin Kamara and even Ben Watson over the past three weeks.
Pierre Garcon (74%) – Is Nate Mullens for real? Is Garcon going to stay on the field?
Willie Snead (77%) – As discussed last week, gets a lot of targets and catches, doesn’t do a lot with them. Decent floor in a pinch.
Tyrell Williams (69%) – Nice long TD passes are great, but it’s hard to expect when he gets so few targets.
Wide Receivers – Tier 3 – First Come First Serve
Danny Amendola (53%)
Mike Williams (75%)
Anthony Miller (90%)
Josh Doctson (83%)