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DK Buffet Week 16: Key Stats and Matchups for the Main Slate

When I’m looking into the DFS slate each week, I like to go game by game and identify players or situations that intrigue me. In every game, on every team, there’s a situation that’s relevant for DFS purposes, either positive or negative reason. It informs us of how we should be attacking each slate.

Arizona Cardinals

Implied Total: 15.25

Spread: +14 vs. Los Angeles Rams

David Johnson ($6,200) is the only game in town, all due respect to Larry Fitzgerald. Granted it mostly came on one play, but Johnson had his highest receiving yardage output since Week 10 when he turned three catches into 68 yards on Sunday. He continues to be saved by a random touchdown here and there, though and hasn’t exceeded 20 PPR Points in well over a month.

ariAtlanta Falcons

Implied Total: 23.5

Spread: -3.5 @ Carolina

There are easy plays here like Tevin Coleman ($4,800) in an otherwise empty backfield. But, Calvin Ridley ($5,100) has quietly seen some volume lately. I say quietly because he hasn’t done a ton with it since the game against New Orleans. As a GPP dart with Julio Jones still not practicing, he makes sense. atl

Buffalo Bills

Implied Total: 16

Spread: +13 @ New England

If you’ve been following along this year, you know that Robert Foster ($4,900) has been on the radar. In their past five games, he’s seen 512 air yards on just 23 targets. We know that those high aDOT targets are valuable and for under $5,000 he can pay off his salary on a play or two. We saw Kenny Stills burn these Patriots DBs a couple of weeks ago. If Foster pushes into the six-plus target range, he could be in for a huge day.

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Carolina Panthers

Implied Total: 20

Spread: +3.5 vs. Atlanta

Christian McCaffrey ($8,800) is in a matchup that we know he can exploit. He saw 15 targets the first go-round against these Falcons. There’s some debate about whether the Panthers have thrown in the towel this year. Carolina has been using CMC at an unreal clip. He hasn’t missed a snap in the past five weeks and is playing nearly 98 percent of snaps on the season. An average of 21-plus opportunities per game is worth paying for, regardless of the QB situation.

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Chicago Bears

Implied Total: 23.25

Spread: -4 @ San Francisco

Over the past five games, Allen Robinson ($5,400) has seen the targets but hasn’t quite put it together for a big spike game. Over that time he has turned 35 targets into over 250 yards of receiving but hasn’t found the end zone. Per Michael Dubner’s Touchdown Expectation formula, that type of volume and production should’ve led to 1.6 touchdowns. Layer on top of that, the fact that Robinson hasn’t been efficient with those targets, and you can probably tack on another touchdown or so to that total. If he keeps that volume against the 49ers he should be in for a big day.

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Cincinnati Bengals

Implied Total: 17.25

Spread: +10 @ Cleveland

The tables have completely turned from what we’re used to in this matchup with Cleveland being favored by this many points. Even if Jeff Driskel ($4,600) is forced to throw a ton, I’m not sure I want any piece of this offense.

Cleveland Browns

Implied Total: 27.25

Spread: -10 vs. Cincinnati

The QB1 for the other team in Ohio is someone we should be interested in. Baker Mayfield ($6,100) has thrown for multiple touchdowns in six of his last eight games. In that span, he’s only hit the 300-yard bonus once, though. This could be a repeat of the last time these two teams faced off, where Baker threw for four touchdowns. The ceiling is there for Mayfield.

Dallas Cowboys

Implied Total: 27.5

Spread: -7.5 vs. Tampa Bay

Dak Prescott ($5,700) is developing Brees-ian home/road splits this year. In his seven home games, he’s been much more efficient. Dak’s thrown for about 50 more yards and 1.3 more touchdowns at home compared to road games.

dal

Detroit Lions

Implied Total: 18.5

Spread: +5.5 vs. Minnesota

Kenny Golladay ($6,000) will get a tough draw against the Minnesota defense, but since that doesn’t matter he’s worth rostering this weekend. After some brutal weeks, he found his ceiling again. Golladay is averaging nine targets per game since the Week 10 matchup against Chicago.

det

Green Bay Packers

Implied Total: 24.5

Spread: -3 @ New York Jets

We saw what a talented WR can do against this Jets secondary last week. Davante Adams ($8,500) has seen double-digit targets in four of the past five weeks and hasn’t seen fewer than seven in any contest this season. He’s top five in each of the following stats on a per game basis this season:

  • Targets
  • Red Zone Targets
  • Yards
  • Touchdowns
  • Air Yards
  • WOPR

That’s pretty good.

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Houston Texans

Implied Total: 21.75

Spread: +2.5 @ Philadelphia

The stat explorer loves Deshaun Watson ($6,600) this week, and it doesn’t even realize that the Texans may be throwing more because of injuries in the backfield. Watson’s fantasy performance has been on a steady climb the last few weeks and a matchup against the Philadelphia secondary can help a QB find their ceiling. Just ask Prescott a couple of weeks ago.

 

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Indianapolis Colts

Implied Total: 28.5

Spread: -10 vs. New York Giants

It feels weird to talk about Andrew Luck’s ($6,200) floor after a disappointing performance, but here we are. The sheer volume of attempts should be enough to keep Luck afloat against New York. Luck should get back to his touchdown throwing ways in a game where the Colts should roll pretty easily at home.

 

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Jacksonville Jaguars

Implied Total: 17.75

Spread: +4 @ Miami

Leonard Fournette ($6,000) is the only guy you can consider here and it’s pretty thin. He’s averaging just 16 opportunities over the past two weeks and has been inefficient, to put it lightly. Fournette has struggled to an average of 7.5 PPR points during that time span. Maybe a dart throw for GPPs at low ownership, but nothing great should be expected from Fournette.

Los Angeles Rams

Implied Total: 29.25

Spread: -14 @ Arizona

Since Week 11, Josh Reynolds ($4,600) has seen 32 targets. Over that same timeframe, Brandin Cooks ($6,500) has seen 33 targets. How many points has Reynolds scored, you ask? 43. Cooks? 46. But we’re supposed to eat four times the ownership and pay $1,900 more for Cooks? No thanks.

 

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Miami Dolphins

Implied Total: 21.75

Spread: -4 vs. Jacksonville

Who knew that in 2018 we’d be saying that an injury to Frank Gore opened up an opportunity for another running back? But here we are. As four-point favorites, we want the guy who’s going to tote the rock. In the game last week, Kalen Ballage ($3,700) accounted for 123 of the Dolphins’ 156 rushing yards. With Gore out of the way, Ballage appears to be the ball carrier of choice while Kenyan Drake ($3,900) figures to factor in on passing downs.

Minnesota Vikings

Implied Total: 24

Spread: -5.5 @ Detroit

Either of Adam Thielen ($7,900) or Stefon Diggs ($7,400) make sense in a game where Minnesota figures to score some points. Thielen only saw two targets last week, but the game got away from them needing to throw. Kirk Cousins attempted just 21 passes last week. Thielen and Diggs are fourth and seventh, respectively, in targets so far this season.

min

New England Patriots

Implied Total: 29

Spread: -13 vs. Buffalo

Julian Edelman ($7,200) has been flirting with the 100-yard bonus in three of the last four games. He’s seeing an average of nine targets per game in that stretch and has turned them into nearly six catches for 70-plus yards each week. People will be trying to get exposure to the Patriots in a bunch of different ways, I’ll be sticking with old reliable.

 

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New Orleans Saints

Implied Total: 29.5

Spread: -5.5 vs. Pittsburgh

Michael Thomas ($8,100) has seen his aDOT drop recently. He’s seeing a significant WOPR share still, but a few games got away from what we want for Thomas to smash. He’s only broken 80 air yards in one of his last five games. This is a good spot to get back into a throwing script for the Saints, assuming the Steelers can keep up.

 

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New York Giants

Implied Total: 18.5

Spread: +10 @ Indianapolis

Saquon Barkley ($7,900) hasn’t been below $8,000 since the second week of October. Last week was the first time he was held to a single-digit fantasy output. Barkley saw 10 targets in that game. If he continues to see 23-plus opportunities per game, as he has over the past month, then I’m willing to bank on serious production from the soon-to-be Rookie of the Year.

nyg

New York Jets

Implied Total: 21.5

Spread: +3 vs. Green Bay

It’s Sam Darnold ($4,900) and Robby Anderson ($4,500) appreciation week on DFS Twitter, apparently. I’ve written this on these very pages before, but there’s something to be said for getting a QB-WR stack at under $10,000. Yes, Darnold looked good against Houston last week, but we haven’t seen a true ceiling game from him. Anderson has been disappointing much of the year so far, but he has turned things on over the past couple of weeks.

 

nyj

Philadelphia Eagles

Implied Total: 24.25

Spread: -2.5 vs. Houston

Nick Foles ($4,700) is being floated as a cash option. We’ve talked about it on On The Daily a few times this year, but you simply don’t need to go dumpster diving for cash QBs on DraftKings anymore. If you want to stack him in a GPP, Alshon Jeffery ($4,500) makes the most sense to me. Again, a QB-WR stack under $10,000 with a bunch of ceiling.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Implied Total: 24

Spread: +5.5 @ New Orleans

Ben Roethlisberger ($6,700) is heading down with the boys to the big easy to take on the Saints this weekend. The home/road splits haven’t been as drastic this season but with JuJu Smith-Schuster ($8,000) as a late addition to the injury report, it appears that Pittsburgh will be down at least one weapon. That may open up some targets for either James Washington ($3,100) or Eli Rogers ($3,000) in what could be a high-scoring affair. They each saw four targets last week and we’ve seen Washington’s ceiling already this year.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Implied Total: 20

Spread: +7.5 @ Dallas

Mike Evans ($6,800) has seen his price drop $900 over the past month. He’s averaging over seven targets and 90-plus yards over the past four weeks. Evans could dip into single-digit ownership this weekend as he’s sandwiched between popular options like Julian Edelman and Robert Woods. Evans has had exactly two games this year where he dipped under 100 air yards.

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