Devin Singletary has officially decided to forgo his senior season at Florida Atlantic and enter the 2019 NFL Draft. The 5-foot-9-inch, 200-pound running back has been incredibly productive over the last three seasons but has not received a ton of hype in a somewhat muddled RB draft class. Should Singletary be included in the top-tier of RB prospects for dynasty purposes?
THE EARLY YEARS
Singletary was a three-star prospect according to 247 Sports, landing outside the overall top-250 in his home state of Florida. He spurned offers from Florida State and Miami-FL, eventually signing with Florida Atlantic in February of 2016. Singletary wasted no time announcing his arrival finishing with a 142-1,021-12 rushing line as a freshman. He also finished second on the team in receptions (26) while averaging 21.8 yards per kick return in 2016.
2017 AND BEYOND
Singletary’s sophomore season in 2017 was historic. He became the fourth player since 2000 with at least 30 rushing touchdowns in a single season and the 16th RB this century with at least 1,900 yards rushing and 20 TDs. He followed it up with another strong season in 2018, finishing with an impressive 261-1,348-22 rushing line. When viewing the 2019 RB class purely from a cumulative production perspective, Singletary is without question among the elite.
Singletary’s raw stats are eye-popping. But to add more context, let’s add age into the mix. Anthony Amico wrote about how breakout age for RB prospects — the age at which RBs reach 130 adjusted all-purpose yards per game in a season — is an important indicator of future success. Not only does Singletary cross the initial threshold of having a breakout season but his sophomore breakout also came at a relatively young age (20.3):
|Breakout Age||Total||Hits||Percent Hit||Avg Best PPR|
Historical prospects with breakout seasons before turning 21 have finished as a top-24 RB at least once in their first three seasons about 44 percent of the time. Singletary’s first-year Workhorse Score (0.52) is another positive on his resume, easily crossing the threshold found to be predictive of future success based on previous prospects.
But there are no perfect prospects and his final-year age (21.3) could be one red flag. Blair Andrews has shown that RBs who played their rookie season at age-22 produce a top-24 season just above 20 percent of the time:
There are also looming questions about Singletary’s athleticism prompted by the film community and his poor high school testing results. I’m willing to wait for the combine to make a final evaluation, but a poor 40-yard time, especially given his relatively slight build, could push Singletary down real-life draft boards in April.
But setting aside concerns about his athleticism, Singletary profiles as a prospect with a strong probability of success based on our models. And in a draft class missing a Saquon Barkley-type true RB1, Singletary’s statistical profile alone necessitates his inclusion in the top-tier discussion.