The PGA Tour kicks off the 2019 calendar year with its usual stops in Hawaii. First up, is the Plantation Course at Kapalua for the Sentry Tournament of Champions. If you’re interested in a deeper dive into the course and key stats to target this week, check out the course preview article from earlier in the week. It’s going to be short and sweet this week since there are fewer than 40 golfers in the field and plenty of guys who will carry high ownership.
Checking The Chalk
If you’re looking at the expensive chalk, it starts with Brooks Koepka ($10,200) and Jon Rahm ($9,800). Yes, the other guys above $9,500 will see plenty of ownership with a small field, but my early projections have Koepka and Rahm as the highest owned in this range. Koepka is No. 1 in the world coming off of a season where he won multiple majors. Motivation may be a concern for Koepka as he seems disengaged with golf in spurts, but it’s hard to imagine him not taking advantage of a course like this. Rahm had no majors but did add three worldwide wins to his resume in 2018. Last time out, he won a small, no-cut event at the Hero World Challenge. Rahm missed just three cuts in his 24 starts last season.
The mid-tier has a couple of popular options as well in Bryson DeChambeau ($8,700) and Gary Woodland ($8,000). At this point last year, DeChambeau was 99th in the world and he comes into this week’s event as No. 5 in the OWGR. After winning the Memorial back in June, he managed three victories in his final six events of the year to put a bow on an impressive season. Woodland was 22 of 27 making cuts last season and got a win in Phoenix last season to earn his invite here. On the cheaper end of things, Brandt Snedeker ($7,400) and Billy Horschel ($7,000) are getting plenty of buzz.
Note: As of writing these were the highest owned golfers. Since then, Dustin Johnson has gained quite a bit of buzz and looks to be a popular option as people talk themselves into some cheaper options. Snedeker and Horschel still look popular, but you can add Aaron Wise ($7,500) and Keegan Bradley ($7,300) to the list of popular, cheap options.
Overall, ownership will be pretty flat at the top. It’s important to take stands on guys in the $8,000 and up range. You’ll likely be chasing your tail if you’re spread too thin up top. From a course fit perspective, Kevin Tway ($6,500) makes sense as a cheap dart throw. He’s just $6,500 and I have him projected for single-digit ownership. It is rare to get a decent play at low ownership in this type of field, but Tway fits the bill for a course like Kapalua. Note: Tway has gained quite a bit of steam and my latest projections have him as the second highest owned option at or below $7,000 behind Horschel.
Rory McIlroy ($9,600) has the type of game that can fit Kapalua well. We could be looking at some windy days this weekend which favors a golfer like McIlroy who performs so well in windy conditions. The first run of projections has him the lowest owned of anyone above $9,000. It’s hard to argue with a golfer of his talent level at an ownership discount.
Regardless of ownership, this section will have two golfers each week that I’d be willing to go 100 percent on and roll out in cash lineups.
I broke down Jon Rahm’s season above. It should be pretty obvious that he has the distance and the scoring upside to compete at a place like Kapalua. Same goes for Gary Woodland. His game off the tee has been special for the past year and I don’t see how that changes down in Hawaii. You’ll be eating a fair bit of ownership with both of these golfers in your lineup but pairing them with someone you like that’s low-owned can be a profitable play this week.
Here are the ownership projections so far. They will be updated Wednesday afternoon as well for the most up to date results before you finalize your lineups.
Ownership Projections - WMPO
|Name||Salary||Final Run||Model:85+ DK Points|
|Si Woo Kim||7500||3.2||1%|
|Cheng Tsung Pan||7200||1.8||11%|
|Ted Potter Jr||6800||1.0||2%|
|Meen Whee Kim||6000||0.2||1%|