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PGA DFS: Sentry Tournament of Champions

The PGA Tour kicks off the 2019 calendar year with its usual stops in Hawaii. First up, is the Plantation Course at Kapalua for the Sentry Tournament of Champions. If you’re interested in a deeper dive into the course and key stats to target this week, check out the course preview article from earlier in the week. It’s going to be short and sweet this week since there are fewer than 40 golfers in the field and plenty of guys who will carry high ownership.

Checking The Chalk

If you’re looking at the expensive chalk, it starts with Brooks Koepka ($10,200) and Jon Rahm ($9,800). Yes, the other guys above $9,500 will see plenty of ownership with a small field, but my early projections have Koepka and Rahm as the highest owned in this range. Koepka is No. 1 in the world coming off of a season where he won multiple majors. Motivation may be a concern for Koepka as he seems disengaged with golf in spurts, but it’s hard to imagine him not taking advantage of a course like this. Rahm had no majors but did add three worldwide wins to his resume in 2018. Last time out, he won a small, no-cut event at the Hero World Challenge. Rahm missed just three cuts in his 24 starts last season.

The mid-tier has a couple of popular options as well in Bryson DeChambeau ($8,700) and Gary Woodland ($8,000). At this point last year, DeChambeau was 99th in the world and he comes into this week’s event as No. 5 in the OWGR. After winning the Memorial back in June, he managed three victories in his final six events of the year to put a bow on an impressive season. Woodland was 22 of 27 making cuts last season and got a win in Phoenix last season to earn his invite here.  On the cheaper end of things, Brandt Snedeker ($7,400) and Billy Horschel ($7,000) are getting plenty of buzz.

Note: As of writing these were the highest owned golfers. Since then, Dustin Johnson has gained quite a bit of buzz and looks to be a popular option as people talk themselves into some cheaper options. Snedeker and Horschel still look popular, but you can add Aaron Wise ($7,500) and Keegan Bradley ($7,300) to the list of popular, cheap options.

GPP Pivots

Overall, ownership will be pretty flat at the top. It’s important to take stands on guys in the $8,000 and up range. You’ll likely be chasing your tail if you’re spread too thin up top. From a course fit perspective, Kevin Tway ($6,500) makes sense as a cheap dart throw. He’s just $6,500 and I have him projected for single-digit ownership. It is rare to get a decent play at low ownership in this type of field, but Tway fits the bill for a course like Kapalua. Note: Tway has gained quite a bit of steam and my latest projections have him as the second highest owned option at or below $7,000 behind Horschel. 

Rory McIlroy ($9,600) has the type of game that can fit Kapalua well. We could be looking at some windy days this weekend which favors a golfer like McIlroy who performs so well in windy conditions. The first run of projections has him the lowest owned of anyone above $9,000. It’s hard to argue with a golfer of his talent level at an ownership discount.

Cash Locks

Regardless of ownership, this section will have two golfers each week that I’d be willing to go 100 percent on and roll out in cash lineups.

I broke down Jon Rahm’s season above. It should be pretty obvious that he has the distance and the scoring upside to compete at a place like Kapalua. Same goes for Gary Woodland. His game off the tee has been special for the past year and I don’t see how that changes down in Hawaii. You’ll be eating a fair bit of ownership with both of these golfers in your lineup but pairing them with someone you like that’s low-owned can be a profitable play this week.

Ownership Projections

Here are the ownership projections so far. They will be updated Wednesday afternoon as well for the most up to date results before you finalize your lineups.

Ownership Projections - WMPO

NameSalaryFinal RunModel:85+ DK Points
Jon Rahm1150013.829%
Justin Thomas1100010.721%
Hideki Matsuyama1070024.819%
Xander Schauffele1010011.23%
Gary Woodland990011.529%
Webb Simpson970015.46%
Tony Finau950017.427%
Rickie Fowler940024.111%
Phil Mickelson930020.38%
Matt Kuchar920017.011%
Cameron Smith910010.53%
Adam Hadwin90009.36%
Bubba Watson890014.15%
Billy Horschel880014.020%
Chez Reavie870012.815%
Byeong-Hun An860018.927%
Andrew Putnam85005.89%
Alexander Noren840011.42%
Cameron Champ830012.524%
Daniel Berger820016.28%
Brandt Snedeker81003.81%
Branden Grace80003.217%
Luke List800014.433%
Austin Cook79005.97%
Tyrrell Hatton790014.66%
Zach Johnson78006.87%
Keegan Bradley780015.04%
Ryan Palmer77007.07%
Abraham Ancer770011.86%
J.B. Holmes76003.111%
Martin Laird760012.83%
Emiliano Grillo760014.77%
Si Woo Kim75003.21%
Kyle Stanley75006.612%
Talor Gooch750014.12%
Patton Kizzire74001.13%
Scott Piercy74002.311%
Kevin Kisner74002.52%
Russell Knox74002.88%
Brendan Steele740014.115%
Charl Schwartzel73001.22%
JT Poston73001.33%
Martin Kaymer73001.31%
Sung-Jae Im73005.67%
Jason Kokrak73008.831%
Ryan Moore72001.54%
Cheng Tsung Pan72001.811%
Kevin Na72002.32%
Harold Varner72003.923%
Joaquin Niemann72008.318%
Lucas Glover720013.318%
Bill Haas71000.22%
Chesson Hadley71000.84%
Beau Hossler71002.04%
J.J. Spaun71002.14%
Sam Burns71002.25%
Kevin Tway71003.79%
Andrew Landry70000.62%
Sung-Hoon Kang70000.81%
Robert Streb70000.83%
Richy Werenski70000.97%
Brian Harman70001.72%
Kiradech Aphibarnrat70004.92%
Keith Mitchell70006.230%
Kevin Streelman69000.216%
Bud Cauley69000.62%
Brian Stuard69000.72%
Harris English69000.83%
Russell Henley69001.25%
Ryan Armour69001.23%
Charley Hoffman69001.45%
Nick Watney68000.310%
Jimmy Walker68000.32%
Peter Uihlein68000.34%
Jhonattan Vegas68000.36%
Aaron Baddeley68000.54%
Ted Potter Jr68001.02%
Joel Dahmen680011.25%
Nick Taylor67000.22%
Ollie Schniederjans67000.23%
Patrick Rodgers67000.39%
Brian Gay67001.12%
Danny Lee67001.116%
Stewart Cink67002.815%
Trey Mullinax670010.26%
Hunter Mahan66000.214%
Jonas Blixt66000.21%
Stephan Jaeger66000.23%
Chase Wright66000.22%
Chris Kirk66000.62%
Vaughn Taylor66000.72%
Scott Stallings66001.617%
Carlos Ortiz65000.26%
John Huh65000.22%
Rory Sabbatini65000.23%
Sean O'Hair65000.24%
Denny McCarthy65000.22%
Steve Stricker65001.96%
Sam Ryder65005.58%
Chris Stroud64000.22%
Tom Hoge64000.22%
Adam Long64000.24%
Brice Garnett64000.24%
Grayson Murray64000.65%
Bronson Burgoon64001.410%
James Hahn64001.99%
Morgan Hoffmann63000.22%
Jim Herman63000.23%
Fredrik Jacobson63000.21%
Adam Schenk63000.214%
Mackenzie Hughes63000.62%
Anders Albertson63006.312%
Kenny Perry62000.22%
Colt Knost62000.22%
Brandon Harkins62000.23%
Michael Kim62000.21%
Kelly Kraft62000.22%
John Catlin62000.22%
Cody Gribble61000.23%
Michael Hopper61000.22%
Seamus Power61000.24%
Ryan Blaum61000.22%
Satoshi Kodaira61000.52%
Brandon Hagy61000.86%
K.J. Choi60000.22%
Alex Cejka60000.22%
Tyler Duncan60000.213%
Meen Whee Kim60000.21%
Matthew Wolff60007.41%
These projections were updated at 8 PM on Wednesday 1/30/2019.

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