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2019 NFL Draft Prospect: Kelvin Harmon

Kelvin Harmon opted to skip the Gator Bowl in order to prepare for the 2019 NFL Draft. Considering that Harmon has been a projected as a first-round draft pick for much of the 2018 season, it should come as no surprise that he declared early.

At 6-foot-3-inches and 214-pounds, Harmon has the look of a prototypical X wide receiver. Does Harmon’s profile support his projected first-round draft stock?

Past Production

As a true freshman, Harmon caught 27 balls and scored five TDs while averaging over 17 yards per reception. Harmon led the team in touchdown catches as a true freshman and his 462 receiving yards was the third-best total ever by an NC State rookie.

Harmon took a huge step forward as a sophomore and posted a breakout season. Harmon dominated the receiving market share, posting 1,017 receiving yards1 on a very nice 69 receptions. He was a late addition to the Biletnikoff Award watch list, but unfortunately didn’t advance to the semifinals.

2018 Campaign

Year G Rec Yds Avg TD msYD msTD DR
2016 10 27 462 17.1 5 0.15 0.29 0.18
2017 13 69 1,017 14.7 4 0.31 0.25 0.30
2018 12 81 1,186 14.6 7 0.30 0.29 0.30
Career 35 177 2,665 15.1 16 0.26 0.28 0.26

As a junior, Harmon improved upon every raw receiving metric. His 1,186 receiving yards ranked 13th in the nation and he set career highs in receptions and touchdowns.

NFL Draft Prospects

Since his sophomore year, Harmon has accounted for at least 30 percent of the Wolfpack’s receiving production. Crossing the 30 percent production threshold has been shown to be an important indicator of future success for WR prospects, especially when it comes at an early age.

WR Full Snip

Utilizing Anthony Amico’s research for age-adjusted production for WRs, we see that Harmon narrowly misses the cutoff for breakout age (20.1) and career receiving TD-per-game (0.46). As a result, Harmon falls into one of the least favorable nodes in the study.

However, results from an earlier study on age-adjusted production done by Amico indicates that Harmon has a very strong chance of future success. Harmon’s age-20 breakout season coupled with the likelihood of him ending up as a top-100 pick gives him a 35.3 percent chance at recording a WR2 or better season at least once in his first three NFL seasons.

SplitHitsTotal%Average Draft
BA <=20183946.2%38.1
20 < BA <= 21123435.3%46.4
21 < BA <= 2242119.0%52.3
BA > 221156.7%62.3

Additionally, Blair Andrews has shown that younger rookies have a greater chance at success, all else being equal. Although Harmon will turn 22 slightly before the end of his rookie year, his rookie-season age is a strong asset. wrdraftage_top24season

Additionally, WRs who declare early for the draft typically have a greater likelihood of future fantasy success compared to their counterparts who use all their college eligibility before entering the NFL.

We’ll learn more about Harmon’s athleticism once he participates in the NFL combine. Even if Harmon doesn’t have a particularly strong combine, the multitude of other positives in his profile — his age-adjusted production, early breakout, and the fact that he declared early — should give us plenty of hope that he should develop into a reliable fantasy asset.

  1. second-best mark in the ACC  (back)

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