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Free Agency! Blockbuster Trades! Looking at FFPC Best Ball ADP After the Waves Have Settled

This is part of a periodic look at FFPC best ball ADP using the RotoViz FFPC Best Ball App. The first in the series is here.

So, in the past five weeks since we last looked at FFPC best ball ADP, Odell Beckham and Antonio Brown were traded, Le’Veon Bell found a new home and a slew of free agents signed with new teams. But other than that, of course, nothing much happened.

In terms of FFPC best ball drafts, we’re here to tell you what those moves have meant, starting with the biggest:1

Beckham to the Browns

When we look back at the earliest of 2019 drafts, there’s a good chance people will shake their heads when they see that OBJ was regularly the eighth wide receiver off the board. The surprise trade to the Browns vaulted him nearly a round, from the end of Round 2 to the beginning, where he was the third WR being taken.
The trade also had a cascade of ancillary effects. Baker Mayfield jumped from the eighth round as the sixth overall quarterback, to the sixth round as QB4. Conversely, Antonio Calloway went from a possible sophomore sleeper breakout 13th-rounder to a what-the-heck flyer in the 18th. WR Jarvis Landry took a slight half-round hit but he and tight end David Njoku both remained fifth-rounders.

As for Beckham’s former teammates, Evan Engram got bumped from the seventh TE to fifth overall, while Sterling Shepard remained a fixture in the early double-digit rounds.2

Brown to the Raiders

While Beckham’s departure from the Giants was a surprise, those who drafted Brown in the early going pretty much knew he was done as a Steeler – the question was where he’d land. Apparently, going to Oakland was a lateral move, because his ADP remained at the end of the second. Similarly, with everyone assuming Brown would leave Pittsburgh, Juju Smith-Schuster’s late-second-round ADP also went unchanged, while James Washington got a slight bump to the ninth. And, yes, Brown’s rising tide even lifted Derek Carr about a round, to the end of the 11th.

Bell to the Jets

Again, everyone knew Bell was bolting from Pittsburgh, and his decision to join the Jets barely impacted his ADP at all, as he remained the seventh running back off draft boards, in the late first round. The expectation that Bell will elevate the offense gave QB Sam Darnold a bump of nearly a round to the end of the 10th, but his arrival torpedoed the possible Zero RB candidacy of third-year Elijah McGuire, who plummeted nearly four rounds from the 11th.3

Other Movers

Three RBs entering their age-29 seasons improved their fantasy situations dramatically, according to high-stakes drafters. Latavius Murray is still a backup to a young star (now Alvin Kamara instead of Dalvin Cook), but the optimism surrounding his new role as Mark Ingram’s replacement in the RB-friendly Saints offense boosted him nine rounds to the end of the ninth. Carlos Hyde saw a similar leap, skyrocketing nearly nine rounds to the 10th upon escaping the dysfunctional Jaguars offense for the superbly functioning one in Kansas City.
While Ingram failed to see a similar leap, his move to the Ravens from the Saints, which we viewed positively, caused him to rise more than a round, from the fifth to the fourth. However, it also pushed Gus Edwards and Kenneth Dixon from early double-digit round sleepers to later-round dart throws.
Jordan Howard‘s trade to the Eagles didn’t affect his seventh-round ADP very much, but 2018 waiver-wire darling Mike Davis saw his stock soar from an end-of-draft prayer to 12th-round Zero RB hopeful. Depending on what the Bears do in the draft, he could keep going up or start freefalling back down. Devin Funchess didn’t see quite a meteoric rise, but one can assume from his nine-round leap to the 13th that drafters hope the Colts can rehab his value in the same way they did for Eric Ebron last season.

While Tevin Coleman’s new home in San Francisco kept his sixth-round ADP essentially the same, his addition damaged hopes for Jerick McKinnon, who dropped nearly two rounds to the end of the sixth, and Matt Breida, who sank from the mid-ninth to the start of the 13th. Our advice? Treat them like Patriots RBs and take the guy who costs least.

  1. The cutoff point for ADP was before and after the March 13 start of NFL free agency.  (back)
  2. For those who care, Eli Manning, already an after-thought at QB, dropped even farther.  (back)
  3. Former Jets starter Isaiah Crowell fled to Oakland in free agency.  (back)

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