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Going Back to The Well with Jon Rahm: Charles Schwab Challenge Plays, Pivots and Ownership Projections

 

Colonial Country Club has been a staple on tour with events held here dating back to the 1940s. It’s a par 70 that plays just a shade over 7,200 yards. The course features relatively small bentgrass greens. The field will have to navigate their way around 85 bunkers and four water hazards as they make their way around the track. If you want a more in depth look at the course, check out yesterday’s course preview article.

Checking the Chalk

Justin Rose ($11,400) hoisted the trophy here last season. In the starts he’s made since winning the Farmers Insurance Open back in January, Rose has hit fewer greens, fewer fairways, and gained fewer strokes around the greens compared to what we’ve come to expect from him. He’s been buoyed a bit by his putter as that is the only positive split he has going for him relative to his numbers over the past four years.

Up towards the top of the price range, we have Jon Rahm ($11,200). He had an up-and-down two rounds at the PGA Championship (to put it nicely). Rahm opened the tournament with solid ball-striking, gaining over two strokes tee-to-green on Thursday. He then lost it in a major way on Friday, though, en route to missing the cut. He came in on quite a hot streak, having not missed a cut since August. Coming into the PGA Championship he had 9 of 10 finishes in the top 25 including seven top 10s. One bad round isn’t enough to scare me off of the No. 11 golfer in the OWGR.

Francesco Molinari ($9,800) is just outside of the five-figure salary range this week. He made the best out of a bad course fit last week, but Colonial CC isn’t Bethpage Black. The splits below show how Molinari has performed on courses shorter than 7,300 yards compared to longer courses. He hits more greens, gains more strokes on approach and tee-to-green.

GPP Plays

The common refrain around PGA DFS Twitter has been that Jordan Spieth ($10,900) is, and will continue to be, awful until he figures out his putting. Then he goes out and gains over 10 strokes on Bethpage Black’s greens and people start poking holes in his ball-striking. Spieth didn’t pop in the model, but this isn’t a thing that’s quantifiable yet. If he can find a way to just simply be neutral off the tee and he gets his putter rolling, we could see vintage Spieth.

Rory Sabbatini ($8,800) is a guy who’s made eight straight cuts and is getting a bit of buzz this week. A made cut from Sabbatini wouldn’t surprise me this week. The model doesn’t love his upside this week, though. Paul Casey ($9,300), on the other hand, did pop in the model. In fact, he’s the top performer in this week’s course fit model. He also showed up in the Sim Scores and Pivots app with Rickie Fowler ($10,500). At over $1,000 cheaper, the Englishman seems like a solid value. Since the start of 2017 on courses shorter than 7,300 yards, Casey has dialed it back off the tee a bit. That has led to more fairways and greens in regulation hit on courses of that length compared to longer courses.

Corey Conners ($7,200) seems pretty underpriced for this week’s field. He’s another guy that has positive splits on shorter courses. In 2019, Conners has hit more fairways and more greens in regulation on courses shorter than 7,300 yards. Conners has been a bit up and down but it’s been a whirlwind for him. He won the Valero to get into the Masters field and hadn’t really settled down through the heritage. Conners lost nearly 5 strokes on the greens last week and still made the cut. If he was even slightly positive on the greens, he would’ve been in the Top 30 and people would have a much different view on him. Even on a course that didn’t quite fit for him, he managed to hit nearly two-thirds of his greens in regulation.

Cash Locks

So far this season, the totals for the cash locks are 32/36 made cuts, 22/36 top 30s, and 12/36 top 10s. Here are this week’s cash locks:

  • Paul Casey ($9,300)
  • Corey Conners ($7,200)

Ownership Projections and Model Results - Charles Schwab Challenge

Updated Wed. 7 PM
NameDK$Projected Own%Model Score
Justin Rose1140013.00.99
Jon Rahm1120019.51.00
Jordan Spieth1090012.50.64
Rickie Fowler10500200.88
Xander Schauffele1000012.50.65
Francesco Molinari980019.50.90
Tony Finau96009.90.62
Bryson DeChambeau940010.50.62
Paul Casey930023.50.99
Kevin Kisner920016.60.41
Ian Poulter910012.10.74
Louis Oosthuizen90007.50.86
Rory Sabbatini880013.00.48
Emiliano Grillo870016.50.68
Scott Piercy860014.10.68
Matthew Fitzpatrick850011.70.54
Ryan Palmer84006.00.59
Chez Reavie830015.90.48
Joel Dahmen820014.10.60
Billy Horschel81006.60.57
Kevin Na800014.60.34
Brandt Snedeker790014.00.36
Zach Johnson790013.80.50
Tyrrell Hatton78008.50.73
Graeme McDowell78006.00.47
Si Woo Kim770012.20.32
SungJae Im770011.40.77
Pat Perez77003.70.38
Abraham Ancer760014.40.45
Charley Hoffman76006.70.47
Daniel Berger76006.70.48
Byeong Hun An750015.30.88
Kiradech Aphibarnrat75005.00.27
Branden Grace75004.50.50
Kevin Tway75002.70.43
Russell Knox740011.50.69
Jimmy Walker74006.80.33
Matt Jones74005.00.48
Jason Dufner74003.60.70
Jim Furyk730013.50.73
Danny Lee730012.90.50
Cheng Tsung Pan73009.30.40
Jhonattan Vegas73004.50.71
Corey Conners720014.10.85
Bud Cauley72001.60.54
Matt Every72001.00.27
Trey Mullinax72001.00.51
Seamus Power72000.50.27
Joaquin Niemann71007.00.51
Brian Stuard71007.00.42
Sam Burns71003.40.29
J.T. Poston71002.80.44
Bill Haas71001.30.43
Kramer Hickok70002.30.60
Martin Kaymer70001.10.30
Aaron Baddeley70001.10.31
Ollie Schniederjans70001.00.27
Martin Laird70000.50.46
Kevin Streelman69007.80.72
Kyoung-Hoon Lee69002.20.62
Brian Harman69001.90.28
Max Homa69001.70.26
Austin Cook69000.70.26
Michael Thompson68003.20.44
Shawn Stefani68002.50.52
Andrew Putnam68001.80.30
Nick Taylor68000.90.38
Scott Stallings68000.50.39
Doug Ghim67006.80.42
Talor Gooch67005.90.30
Vaughn Taylor67004.10.36
Beau Hossler67003.80.35
Cameron Champ67001.80.54
Patton Kizzire67001.40.18
Denny McCarthy66001.70.38
Andrew Landry66001.10.36
David Toms66000.80.36
Peter Uihlein66000.40.44
Nick Watney66000.40.49
Scott Brown66000.30.37
Adam Schenk65002.40.53
Jonas Blixt65000.80.24
Dominic Bozzelli65000.80.22
Brendan Steele65000.50.74
Anirban Lahiri65000.30.15
Ben Crane65000.20.23
Boo Weekley64002.40.65
Nate Lashley64001.90.44
Wyndham Clark64000.80.34
Bronson Burgoon64000.40.48
Brian Gay64000.40.29
Kenny Perry64000.20.29
Adam Long63000.40.57
Peter Malnati63000.30.21
Chris Stroud63000.20.21
Roger Sloan63000.20.29
Ryan Blaum63000.20.19
Josh Teater63000.10.54
Chesson Hadley62001.10.27
Tom Hoge62000.70.14
Ted Potter Jr.62000.30.15
Mackenzie Hughes62000.20.26
Michael Kim62000.10.07
Colt Knost62000.10.16
Rod Pampling62000.10.10
Ryan Armour61003.40.43
Carlos Ortiz61001.10.61
Richy Werenski61000.30.22
Brice Garnett61000.30.32
Scott Langley61000.20.23
Keith Clearwater61000.10.00
Hudson Swafford61000.10.41
Tom Purtzer60000.70.07
Meen Whee Kim60000.30.11
Mike Weir60000.30.04
Tim Herron60000.10.14
Dru Love60000.10.09
J.J. Henry60000.10.43
Tyrone Van Aswegen60000.10.17
Tucker Wadkins60000.10.07

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