Last week I took part in a devy mock draft hosted by Greg Brandt from over at Devy Watch. It was a 12-team, PPR scoring, non-Superflex draft with a player pool consisting of 2020, 2021, and 2022 eligible prospects. Two of my fellow RotoViz writers, Travis May and Matt Wispe, also took part.
My goal here is to walk you through the draft, round by round, explaining my thought process for the picks I made. I’ll also point out other options I considered as well as a time or two I was sniped. Hopefully this breakdown will give you an idea of how players are being valued heading into the dog days of summer. Let’s dive in.
|5||Cam Akers||RB||Florida State||2020|
|11||Eno Benjamin||RB||Arizona State||2020|
|12||J.K. Dobbins||RB||Ohio State||2020|
My Pick: Rondale Moore
Others Considered: Justyn Ross, CeeDee Lamb
Picking seventh, I fully anticipated my top running backs to be off the board based on the hype surrounding the 2020 class. I toyed with the idea of taking Ross or Lamb but ultimately settled on Moore. He’s one of just three wide receivers since 2000 to post a 100-1,200-12 receiving line as a freshman. The other two are Michael Crabtree and Davante Adams, both of whom were redshirt freshman. He also fares extremely well in Travis May’s Adjusted Production Index, posting the best score among 2021 prospects. Add in his dynamic return game ability and you’ve got a WR prospect with seemingly unlimited upside.
|14||Bryan Edwards||WR||South Carolina||2020|
|17||A.J. Dillon||RB||Boston College||2020|
|18||Amon-Ra St. Brown||WR||USC||2021|
|22||Tamorrion Terry||WR||Florida State||2020|
|23||Tylan Wallace||WR||Oklahoma State||2020|
My Pick: Amon-Ra St. Brown
Others Considered: Tylan Wallace
Nine of the twelve selections in this round were WRs including my pick, Amon-Ra St. Brown. He accounted for 25% of USC’s receiving yards as a true freshman last season, finishing with a team-high 60 receptions. His lowly touchdown total (3) killed any hope of crossing the 0.30 Dominator Rating we hold as the standard for a breakout season, but his age-18 production was solid. St. Brown has reportedly been thriving in new offensive coordinator Graham Harrell’s air raid system this spring and is primed to take a big leap as a sophomore in 2019. This time next year we could be talking about Brown as a consensus top-12 devy pick.
|25||Kylin Hill||RB||Mississippi State||2020|
|27||Garrett Wilson||WR||Ohio State||2022|
|30||Chuba Hubbard||RB||Oklahoma State||2020|
|36||Max Borghi||RB||Washington State||2021|
My Pick: Tua Tagovailoa
Others Considered: None
I was hoping that Chuba Hubbard would fall to me here but Wispe nabbed him. Still, landing the potential first overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft at 31st overall is fine by me. Tagovailoa’s efficiency as a sophomore last season was historic. He’s one of just five college QBs since 2010 to finish a season with a 10 percent TD rate and a sub-2 percent interception rate on 300-plus attempts. I still prefer Trevor Lawrence in a vacuum but I’ll willingly take the 21-pick discount here.
|38||Ricky Slade||RB||Penn State||2021|
|42||Jermar Jefferson||RB||Oregon State||2021|
|44||Justin Fields||QB||Ohio State||2021|
|46||Justin Shorter||WR||Penn State||2021|
|48||Jhamon Ausbon||WR||Texas A&M||2020|
My Pick: Jermar Jefferson
Others Considered: Jayden Reed, Anthony McFarland
Not even considered the day-one starter entering the 2018 season, Jefferson finished his freshman campaign with a tremendous 239-1380-12 rushing line running behind the 119th-ranked offensive line according to Football Outsiders’ adjusted line yards metric. He also chipped in with 25 receptions. His athletic testing from high school is somewhat troubling but if he puts up similar production as a sophomore in 2019 his stock will continue to rise.
|53||Master Teague||RB||Ohio State||2021|
|55||Jayden Reed||WR||Western Michigan*||2021|
My Pick: Jayden Reed
Others Considered: None
Getting Reed at 55th overall feels like a home run. He broke out last season at age 18 accounting for 33% of Western Michigan’s receiving yards and TDs. According to Anthony Amico, WRs drafted in the top-100 with a pre-age-20 breakout have hit at an astounding 46.2 percent rate. Reed’s recent entry into the transfer portal complicates his immediate future but I’m still very high on his long term outlook.
|69||Jafar Armstrong||RB||Notre Dame||2020|
|71||Michael Warren II||RB||Cincinnati||2020|
My Pick: Spencer Brown
Others Considered: Michael Warren II
Warren II is shaping up to be a major value in devy leagues but Brown has quietly been one of the most productive RBs in college football over the last two seasons. He also posted a 0.67 First-Year Workhorse Score, well above the desired 0.25 threshold, and better than fellow class of 2020 studs D’Andre Swift, Travis Etienne, and Jonathan Taylor. Concerns about his athleticism are warranted and could ultimately hinder his draft position. But based on the information we have right now, Brown is flying too low under the radar.
|75||T.J. Vasher||WR||Texas Tech||2020|
|79||Lynn Bowden Jr.||WR||Kentucky||2020|
|82||Brevin Jordan||TE||Miami (FL)||2021|
My Pick: Lynn Bowden Jr.
Others Considered: Jeff Thomas
Despite accounting for 35% of Kentucky’s receiving production, Bowden Jr. was largely overshadowed by Benny Snell in 2018. He also played a large roll on special teams including two punt-return TDs. A dynamic, multi-sport high school athlete, Bowden could easily become this year’s Parris Campbell: a versatile weapon who sees a similar increase in draft stock come next spring.
|85||Breece Hall||RB||Iowa State||2022|
|86||Damon Hazelton||WR||Virginia Tech||2020|
|87||Jeff Thomas||WR||Miami (FL)||2020|
|88||Noah Cain||RB||Penn State||2022|
|96||Ricky Person||RB||N.C. State||2021|
My Pick: Colby Parkinson
Others Considered: Hunter Bryant
Wanting to round out my roster from a positional standpoint, I considered taking a shot at pure upside with Bryant but instead settled on Parkinson who I believe has a safer floor. At 6-foot-7, 240 pounds, Parkinson has the quintessential tight end frame to go along with a solid sophomore stat line (29-485-7). Now heading into 2019, he could see even more opportunity with Stanford’s top-two pass catchers from last season off the roster. Already considered one of the best TE prospects in the 2020 class, Parkinson can solidify premium draft position with a strong junior season.
|98||Jeremy Ruckert||TE||Ohio State||2021|
|100||Jashuan Corbin||RB||Texas A&M||2021|
My Pick: Damonte Coxie
Others Considered: Pooka Williams
I considered gambling on Williams here but his uncertain future at Kansas was enough to keep me away. While Darrell Henderson stole the show last season at Memphis, Coxie quietly accounted for 30% of the Tigers’ receiving production, securing a breakout season as a sophomore. A master in contested catch situations, Coxie is primed for a massive junior season with both Henderson and Tony Pollard gone from the roster. He’s a solid buy-low in devy formats.
|109||Jordan Love||QB||Utah State||2020|
|111||Mark Pope||WR||Miami (FL)||2021|
|114||DeeJay Dallas||RB||Miami (FL)||2020|
|116||Lorenzo Lingard||RB||Miami (FL)||2021|
|119||Osiris St. Brown||WR||Stanford||2020|
My Pick: Deejay Dallas
Others Considered: Darnell Mooney, Nico Collins
One of just a handful of returning RBs with a breakout season to his name, Dallas appears to be undervalued. An all-purpose weapon for the Hurricanes last season, Dallas averaged 155.7 adjusted all-purpose yards per game. Cam Harris and Lorenzo Lingard will push Dallas for touches in 2019 making it unlikely we see him assume a true workhorse role. But his size (5-foot-10, 220 pounds) and versatile production make him an intriguing late-round flier.
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