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When The Devy Breaks: Mock Draft Breakdown

 

Last week I took part in a devy mock draft hosted by Greg Brandt from over at Devy Watch. It was a 12-team, PPR scoring, non-Superflex draft with a player pool consisting of 2020, 2021, and 2022 eligible prospects. Two of my fellow RotoViz writers, Travis May and Matt Wispe, also took part.

My goal here is to walk you through the draft, round by round, explaining my thought process for the picks I made. I’ll also point out other options I considered as well as a time or two I was sniped. Hopefully this breakdown will give you an idea of how players are being valued heading into the dog days of summer. Let’s dive in.

Round 1

PickPlayerPositionSchoolClass
1D'Andre SwiftRBGeorgia2020
2Travis EtienneRBClemson2020
3Jerry JeudyWRAlabama2020
4Jonathan TaylorRBWisconsin2020
5Cam AkersRBFlorida State2020
6Tyler JohnsonWRMinnesota2020
7Rondale MooreWRPurdue2021
8Laviska ShenaultWRColorado2020
9Justyn RossWRClemson2021
10Trevor LawrenceQBClemson2021
11Eno BenjaminRBArizona State2020
12J.K. DobbinsRBOhio State2020

My Pick: Rondale Moore

Others Considered: Justyn Ross, CeeDee Lamb

Picking seventh, I fully anticipated my top running backs to be off the board based on the hype surrounding the 2020 class. I toyed with the idea of taking Ross or Lamb but ultimately settled on Moore. He’s one of just three wide receivers since 2000 to post a 100-1,200-12 receiving line as a freshman. The other two are Michael Crabtree and Davante Adams, both of whom were redshirt freshman. He also fares extremely well in Travis May’s Adjusted Production Index, posting the best score among 2021 prospects. Add in his dynamic return game ability and you’ve got a WR prospect with seemingly unlimited upside.

Round 2

PickPlayerPositionSchoolClass
13CeeDee LambWROklahoma2020
14Bryan EdwardsWRSouth Carolina2020
15Tee HigginsWRClemson2020
16Jalen ReagorWRTCU2020
17A.J. DillonRBBoston College2020
18Amon-Ra St. BrownWRUSC2021
19Najee HarrisRBAlabama2020
20Trey SermonRBOklahoma2020
21Henry RuggsWRAlabama2020
22Tamorrion TerryWRFlorida State2020
23Tylan WallaceWROklahoma State2020
24Collin JohnsonWRTexas2020

My Pick: Amon-Ra St. Brown

Others Considered: Tylan Wallace

Nine of the twelve selections in this round were WRs including my pick, Amon-Ra St. Brown. He accounted for 25% of USC’s receiving yards as a true freshman last season, finishing with a team-high 60 receptions. His lowly touchdown total (3) killed any hope of crossing the 0.30 Dominator Rating we hold as the standard for a breakout season, but his age-18 production was solid. St. Brown has reportedly been thriving in new offensive coordinator Graham Harrell’s air raid system this spring and is primed to take a big leap as a sophomore in 2019. This time next year we could be talking about Brown as a consensus top-12 devy pick.

Round 3

PickPlayerPositionSchoolClass
25Kylin HillRBMississippi State2020
26Seth WilliamsWRAuburn2021
27Garrett WilsonWROhio State2022
28Trey SandersRBAlabama2022
29Zamir WhiteRBGeorgia2021
30Chuba HubbardRBOklahoma State2020
31Tua TagovailoaQBAlabama2020
32Jaylen WaddleWRAlabama2021
33John EmeryRBLSU2022
34Jadon HaselwoodWROklahoma2022
35Keaontay IngramRBTexas2021
36Max BorghiRBWashington State2021

My Pick: Tua Tagovailoa

Others Considered: None

I was hoping that Chuba Hubbard would fall to me here but Wispe nabbed him. Still, landing the potential first overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft at 31st overall is fine by me. Tagovailoa’s efficiency as a sophomore last season was historic. He’s one of just five college QBs since 2010 to finish a season with a 10 percent TD rate and a sub-2 percent interception rate on 300-plus attempts. I still prefer Trevor Lawrence in a vacuum but I’ll willingly take the 21-pick discount here.

Round 4

PickPlayerPositionSchoolClass
37Joe NgataWRClemson2022
38Ricky SladeRBPenn State2021
39Ja'Marr ChaseWRLSU2021
40Zach CharbonnetRBMichigan2022
41Justin Herbert QBOregon2020
42Jermar JeffersonRBOregon State2021
43Rashod BatemanWRMinnesota2021
44Justin FieldsQBOhio State2021
45Frank LadsonWRClemson2022
46Justin ShorterWRPenn State2021
47Kalija LipscombWRVanderbilt2020
48Jhamon AusbonWRTexas A&M2020

My Pick: Jermar Jefferson

Others Considered: Jayden Reed, Anthony McFarland

Not even considered the day-one starter entering the 2018 season, Jefferson finished his freshman campaign with a tremendous 239-1380-12 rushing line running behind the 119th-ranked offensive line according to Football Outsiders’ adjusted line yards metric. He also chipped in with 25 receptions. His athletic testing from high school is somewhat troubling but if he puts up similar production as a sophomore in 2019 his stock will continue to rise.

Round 5

PickPlayerPositionSchoolClass
49Donovan Peoples-JonesWRMichigan2020
50Anthony McFarlandRBMaryland2020
51Albert OkwuegbunamTEMissouri2020
52Ke'Shawn VaughnRBVanderbilt2020
53Master TeagueRBOhio State2021
54Antonio Gandy-GoldenWRLiberty2020
55Jayden ReedWRWestern Michigan*2021
56J.D. SpielmanWRNebraska2020
57Zack MossRBUtah2020
58Kennedy BrooksRBOklahoma2020
59Tarik BlackWRMichigan2020
60Stevie ScottRBIndiana2021

My Pick: Jayden Reed

Others Considered: None

Getting Reed at 55th overall feels like a home run. He broke out last season at age 18 accounting for 33% of Western Michigan’s receiving yards and TDs. According to Anthony Amico, WRs drafted in the top-100 with a pre-age-20 breakout have hit at an astounding 46.2 percent rate. Reed’s recent entry into the transfer portal complicates his immediate future but I’m still very high on his long term outlook.

Round 6

PickPlayerPositionSchoolClass
61Dameon PierceRBFlorida2021
62Theo WeaseWROklahoma2022
63Brennan EaglesWRTexas2021
64Denzel MimsWRBaylor2020
65Jerrion EalyRBMississippi2022
66Spencer BrownRBUAB2020
67Tyler VaughnsWRUSC2020
68Salvon AhmedRBWashington2020
69Jafar ArmstrongRBNotre Dame2020
70Terrace MarshallWRLSU2021
71Michael Warren IIRBCincinnati2020
72JaTarvious WhitlowRBAuburn2020

My Pick: Spencer Brown

Others Considered: Michael Warren II

Warren II is shaping up to be a major value in devy leagues but Brown has quietly been one of the most productive RBs in college football over the last two seasons. He also posted a 0.67 First-Year Workhorse Score, well above the desired 0.25 threshold, and better than fellow class of 2020 studs D’Andre Swift, Travis Etienne, and Jonathan Taylor. Concerns about his athleticism are warranted and could ultimately hinder his draft position. But based on the information we have right now, Brown is flying too low under the radar.

Round 7

PickPlayerPositionSchoolClass
73Stephen CarrRBUSC2020
74Brian RobinsonRBAlabama2020
75T.J. VasherWRTexas Tech2020
76Wandale RobinsonRBNebraska2022
77James CookRBGeorgia2021
78Grant CalcaterraTEOklahoma2020
79Lynn Bowden Jr.WRKentucky2020
80Larry RountreeRBMissouri2020
81George PickensWRGeorgia2022
82Brevin JordanTEMiami (FL) 2021
83Jordan WhittingtonWRTexas2022
84Ty ChandlerRBTennessee2020

My Pick: Lynn Bowden Jr.

Others Considered: Jeff Thomas

Despite accounting for 35% of Kentucky’s receiving production, Bowden Jr. was largely overshadowed by Benny Snell in 2018. He also played a large roll on special teams including two punt-return TDs. A dynamic, multi-sport high school athlete, Bowden could easily become this year’s Parris Campbell: a versatile weapon who sees a similar increase in draft stock come next spring.

Round 8

PickPlayerPositionSchoolClass
85Breece HallRBIowa State2022
86Damon HazeltonWRVirginia Tech2020
87Jeff ThomasWRMiami (FL)2020
88Noah CainRBPenn State2022
89Mohamed IbrahimRBMinnesota2021
90Colby ParkinsonTEStanford2020
91Jake FrommQBGeorgia2020
92Michael PittmanWRUSC2020
93John MetchieWRAlabama2022
94Spencer RattlerQBOklahoma2022
95JT DanielsQBUSC2021
96Ricky PersonRBN.C. State2021

My Pick: Colby Parkinson

Others Considered: Hunter Bryant

Wanting to round out my roster from a positional standpoint, I considered taking a shot at pure upside with Bryant but instead settled on Parkinson who I believe has a safer floor. At 6-foot-7, 240 pounds, Parkinson has the quintessential tight end frame to go along with a solid sophomore stat line (29-485-7). Now heading into 2019, he could see even more opportunity with Stanford’s top-two pass catchers from last season off the roster. Already considered one of the best TE prospects in the 2020 class, Parkinson can solidify premium draft position with a strong junior season.

Round 9

PickPlayerPositionSchoolClass
97Dominick BlaylockWRGeorgia2022
98Jeremy RuckertTEOhio State2021
99DeVonta SmithWRAlabama2020
100Jashuan CorbinRBTexas A&M2021
101Hunter BryantTEWashington2020
102Bru McCoyWRTexas2022
102Damonte CoxieWRMemphis2020
104Adrian MartinezQBNebraska2021
105Pooka WilliamsRBKansas2021
106Anthony SchwartzWRAuburn2021
107Jeremiah HollomanWRGeorgia2020
108D.J. WilliamsRBAuburn2022

My Pick: Damonte Coxie

Others Considered: Pooka Williams

I considered gambling on Williams here but his uncertain future at Kansas was enough to keep me away. While Darrell Henderson stole the show last season at Memphis, Coxie quietly accounted for 30% of the Tigers’ receiving production, securing a breakout season as a sophomore. A master in contested catch situations, Coxie is primed for a massive junior season with both Henderson and Tony Pollard gone from the roster. He’s a solid buy-low in devy formats.

Round 10

PickPlayerPositionSchoolClass
109Jordan LoveQBUtah State2020
110Matt Corral QBMississippi2021
111Mark PopeWRMiami (FL)2021
112Jacob EasonQBWashington2020
113Patrick TaylorRBMemphis2020
114DeeJay DallasRBMiami (FL) 2020
115Darnell MooneyWRTulane2020
116Lorenzo LingardRBMiami (FL)2021
117Nico CollinsWRMichigan2020
118Elijah MooreWRMississippi2021
119Osiris St. BrownWRStanford2020
120Jared PinkneyTEVanderbilt2020

My Pick: Deejay Dallas

Others Considered: Darnell Mooney, Nico Collins

One of just a handful of returning RBs with a breakout season to his name, Dallas appears to be undervalued. An all-purpose weapon for the Hurricanes last season, Dallas averaged 155.7 adjusted all-purpose yards per game. Cam Harris and Lorenzo Lingard will push Dallas for touches in 2019 making it unlikely we see him assume a true workhorse role. But his size (5-foot-10, 220 pounds) and versatile production make him an intriguing late-round flier.

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