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Targeting Rookies in Redraft Leagues: The Crushing Truth

Should redraft players target rookies? In this series, Dave Caban reviews rookie data from the past ten years to answer this question.

 

We’ve spent the last four months poring over prospect profiles, evaluating measurables, and analyzing landing spots. While the majority of this research was done through a dynasty focused lens, the excitement it generated will undoubtedly find its way into our redraft processes. But should we let it? Or should we really just throw away the treasure trove of terrific information that we accumulated in the winter and spring? Should we really pass up the opportunity of landing the next big star on our redraft teams? Should we forego drafting rookies?

It’s disappointing, but in the overwhelming majority of cases, the answer to the above question is yes. While there are caveats to this response, and we will need to consider the question in multiple contexts, data spanning 2008 – 2018 paints a bleak picture for the fantasy prospects of the average rookie.

The Data: 2008 – 2018

While a somewhat arbitrary time frame, after discussing with Matthew Freedman on RotoViz Radio, I decided to gather data on all rookie quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends that entered the league in the last 10 years.1 Between 2008 and 2018, a total of 1,034 rookies logged a snap in an NFL game. I pulled the season-long PPR totals and NFL draft position for each of these players.

While every redraft team and league is different, I find that for the most part, only players that average 10 or so points per game (PPG) find their way into my lineups on a weekly basis. For this reason, I decided to use this as my cut off for determining if a player was a “usable” rookie and one that should have been drafted. Of course, many players that are successful rookies don’t “pop” until the back half of the season. As a result, their PPG is depressed. To account for this I used a total point threshold of 160 PPR points as my “usable” cutoff and not 10 PPG.2

The Disappointing Results

 
Draft Picks Total Players Above 160 Threshold %
1 – 32 102 42 41%
33 – 64 104 19 18%
65 – 96 96 10 10%
97 – 128 105 4 4%
129 -161 81 3 4%
162 – 193 65 3 5%
194 + 490 1 0%
Total 1043 82 8%

Of the 1,043 rookies that saw NFL action between 2008 and 2018, only 82 scored 160 or more points. More importantly, 70 percent of the “usable” rookies were drafted in the top 96 picks. Of course, this data doesn’t tell the whole story. In reality, the overall picture is even worse as the results are inflated by QB — a position in which nearly every player that sees significant playing time will average more than 10 PPG.

In future posts, we’ll look at the results on a positional basis but the major takeaway here is that players drafted outside of the first three rounds of the draft very rarely become substantial fantasy contributors. Even those selected in the high-leverage rounds of the NFL draft become usable options less than a quarter of the time.3

If you’re planning on capturing upside this season by stockpiling rookies you should stop and reconsider your strategy. They might be cheaper than veterans but this is for good reason. That’s not to say that you should avoid rookies altogether. There are cases, such as Saquon Barkley in 2018, where rookie related trepidation isn’t needed and I’d argue that the same could be said for Darrell Henderson in 2019. Blair Andrews laid out strong cases for targeting rookie RBs in prior articles (below) and provides a fantastic counterpoint to the argument I’m presenting.

Still, be aware that you should limit the number of rookies you draft on any single team and recognize that your odds of picking the “right” ones are unfavorable. I’m a big fan of Trayveon Williams but given his pick 182 draft capital, will have to pass on him in 2019.

But What About The League Winner That Breaks Out in The Playoffs

The approach I used for determining usability doesn’t give proper credit to rookies that lie dormant until Week 12 and then explode during the playoffs. Brian Malone has shown that rookie running backs are especially valuable in the fantasy playoffs. However, as we’re focusing specifically on the drafting of rookies, I think it’s okay. Holding onto a rookie that hasn’t produced for more than half the season is difficult due to the attrition of the season, and is not a profitable long-term strategy.4 I’d rather use my “upside picks” during drafts to go after second or third year players with clearer paths toward realizing their untapped potential.

This season, I’ll maintain a list of rookies to keep my eye on but forego drafting. Rather than let them clog a roster spot for eight or more weeks, I’ll add them for a week or two after the team that drafts them drops them. Maybe lightning will strike. However, the odds are it won’t.

Player By Player Results

PLAYERPOSSEASDRAFT PICKGAMESPPR
Cam NewtonQB2011116410.9
Saquon BarkleyRB2018216383.8
Robert GriffinQB2012215365
Dak PrescottQB201613516331
Andrew LuckQB2012116330.2
Ezekiel ElliottRB2016415327.5
Jameis WinstonQB2015116317.7
Alvin KamaraRB20176716315.4
Doug MartinRB20123116313.6
Russell WilsonQB20127516312.5
Matt ForteRB20084416306.5
Kareem HuntRB20178616297.2
Odell Beckham Jr.WR20141212297
Baker MayfieldQB2018114279.4
Steve SlatonRB20088916275.9
Michael ThomasWR20164715259.7
Alfred MorrisRB201217316258
Trent RichardsonRB2012315254.7
Carson WentzQB2016216253.8
Chris JohnsonRB20082415251.8
Marcus MariotaQB2015212245.2
Andy DaltonQB20113516245.1
Mike EvansWR2014715245.1
Eddie LacyRB20136115244.5
Matt RyanQB2008316236.5
Geno SmithQB20133916233.2
Jordan HowardRB201615015232.2
Derek CarrQB20143616231.7
Josh AllenQB2018712230.8
Christian McCaffreyRB2017816230.6
Leonard FournetteRB2017413230.2
Eddie RoyalWR20084215229.9
Sam BradfordQB2010116229.5
Kelvin BenjaminWR20142816227.8
Mike WilliamsWR201010116227.4
Giovani BernardRB20133716224.9
Keenan AllenWR20137615224.3
Phillip LindsayRB201832915222.8
Ryan TannehillQB2012816219.8
Le'Veon BellRB20134813219.5
A.J. GreenWR2011415218
DeShone KizerQB20175215216.6
Amari CooperWR2015416215.9
Jeremy HillRB20145516214.9
Kevin SmithRB20086416213.2
David JohnsonRB20158616211.8
Todd GurleyRB20151013210.6
Joe FlaccoQB20081816209.9
Teddy BridgewaterQB20143213208.9
Calvin RidleyWR20182616208.8
Julio JonesWR2011612203.5
Jordan MatthewsWR20144216202.2
Brandon WeedenQB20122215201.9
Tyreek HillWR201616516201.6
Sam DarnoldQB2018313201.1
Sammy WatkinsWR2014416200
Jahvid BestRB20103015198.2
Knowshon MorenoRB20091216198
Blake BortlesQB2014314197
Nick ChubbRB20183516194.3
Mike GlennonQB20137313192.5
Juju Smith-SchusterWR20176213191.7
Jarvis LandryWR20146316189.4
Percy HarvinWR20092215188.5
Zac StacyRB201316013185.4
Sterling ShepardWR20164016184.4
Deshaun WatsonQB2017127183.9
Justin BlackmonWR2012516182.8
Ty HiltonWR20129215181
Torrey SmithWR20115815180
DeSean JacksonWR20084916178.8
Cooper KuppWR20176915177.8
Lamar JacksonQB20183216177.8
Evan EngramTE20172315173.6
Austin CollieWR200912716169.7
Roy HeluRB201110515168.9
Duke JohnsonRB20157716165.4
Andre EllingtonRB201318715165.3
Hakeem NicksWR20092914162.8
Nyheim HinesRB201810416160.9
Mitchell TrubiskyQB2017212160.3
D.J. MooreWR20182416160.2
Josh GordonWR201232916159.7
LeSean McCoyRB20095316158.5
Tim HightowerRB200814916157.6
Mark SanchezQB2009515157.5
Rob GronkowskiTE20104216156.6
Jeremy MaclinWR20091913156.6
Jonathan StewartRB20081316156.3
T.J. YeldonRB20153612155.9
Tyler LockettWR20156916155.4
Mike WallaceWR20098416155.4
E.J. ManuelQB20131610155.2
Allen HurnsWR201432916154.7
Doug BaldwinWR201132916153.6
Donnie AveryWR20083314151.3
Tarik CohenRB201711916149.9
Cordarrelle PattersonWR20132916149.7
Stefon DiggsWR201514613149.3
Anthony ArmstrongWR201032915149.1
Javorius AllenRB201512516148.9
Devontae BookerRB201613616148.7
Kendall WrightWR20122015148.6
Matthew StaffordQB2009110148.2
Terrance WilliamsWR20137415148
John CarlsonTE20083815147.7
Chris WellsRB20093116147.6
John BrownWR20149116147
Ryan MathewsRB20101212146.3
Titus YoungWR20114416146.2
Blaine GabbertQB20111015146.2
DeMarco MurrayRB20117113146
Jeremy LangfordRB201510615145.6
Greg LittleWR20115916145.4
Joe MixonRB20174814145.3
Branden OliverRB201432914145.3
Andre WilliamsRB201411316145.1
DeAndre HopkinsWR20132716144.2
Josh RosenQB20181014143.7
Marlon BrownWR201332914143.2
LeGarrette BlountRB201032913143.1
Jamaal WilliamsRB201713414142.8
Aaron HernandezTE201011314142
Kerryon JohnsonRB20184310141.4
Timothy WrightWR201332914141.3
Sony MichelRB20183113141.1
Christian PonderQB20111211140.6
Brandin CooksWR20142010139.3
Tre MasonRB20147512137.3
Dez BryantWR20102412137.1
Denarius MooreWR201114813136.9
Courtland SuttonWR20184016136.3
Keelan ColeWR201732916134.8
Rob KelleyRB201632914132.6
Antonio CallawayWR201810516132.3
Hunter HenryTE20163513132.2
Vick BallardRB201217016131.6
Jamison CrowderWR201510516131.6
Chris GivensWR20129615131
Kenny BrittWR20093015130.1
Martavis BryantWR201411810130.1
Jordan ShipleyWR20108415130
Darren McFaddenRB2008413129.8
Thomas RawlsRB201532912129.6
Johnny KnoxWR200914015127.7
Kenny StillsWR201314416127.1
Tavon AustinWR2013813126.9
Isaiah CrowellRB201432915126.4
Karlos WilliamsRB201515511126.3
Tyler BoydWR20165516126.1
Keiland WilliamsRB201032914126
Christian KirkWR20184712123.5
Jermaine GreshamTE20102115123.1
Michael CrabtreeWR20091011122.5
Matt JonesWR20159513122.5
Will FullerWR20162114121.7
Ameer AbdullahRB20155416121.1
Tony MoeakiTE20109315120.6
Anthony MillerWR20185114120.3
Dustin KellerTE20083014119.5
Robert WoodsWR20134114118.3
Robby AndersonWR201632914116.9
Davone BessWR200832916116.7
Melvin GordonRB20151514116.3
Jalen RichardRB201632916115.6
Dwayne AllenTE20126415115.6
Rod StreaterWR201232915115.4
Allen RobinsonWR20146110114.8
Terrance WestRB20149414114.7
Jordan ReedTE2013859114.7
Montee BallRB20135815114.4
Mohamed MassaquoiWR20095016114.1
Chris HerndonTE201810714113.2
Michael FloydWR20121315113.2
Louis MurphyWR200912416113.2
Josh FreemanQB20091710112.9
Aaron DobsonWR20135911112.9
Samaje PerineRB201711413112.5
Jacoby FordWR201010812111.5
Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR201817415111
Austin EkelerRB201732913110.9
Dorial Green-BeckhamWR20154014110.9
Ace SandersWR201310115110.9
Nick FolesQB2012887109
Brian HartlineWR200910815108.5
Devin FunchessWR20154116108.3
Mike ThomasWR200910714107.9
Mark AndrewsTE20188616107.2
C.J. BeathardQB20171046107.1
Wayne GallmanRB201714013106.9
Zach ErtzTE20133515106.9
Colt McCoyQB2010858106.7
George KittleTE201714615106.5
Will TyeTE201532913106.4
David GettisWR201019814106
Derrick HenryRB20164514105.7
Tim TebowQB2010257105.4
Tajae SharpeWR201614016105.3
O.J. HowardTE20171913105.2
Taylor GabrielWR201432916105.1
Chris IvoryRB201032912104.3
Ray RiceRB20085513103.8
Matt BreidaRB201732916103.5
Dante PettisWR2018449103.5
Royce FreemanRB20187114103.3
Marlon MackRB201714314103
Mychal RiveraTE201318416102.7
Kenbrell ThompkinsWR201332911102.6
Kenneth DixonRB201613412102.4
Peyton HillisRB20082277102.2
Blair WhiteWR201032911101.5
Tre'Quan SmithWR20189113100.7
Davante AdamsWR20145314100.6
Bishop SankeyRB20145416100.2
Bryce BrownRB20122291699
Tashard ChoiceRB20081221198.7
Trent TaylorWR20171771598
Ito SmithRB20181261397.7
Alfred BlueRB20141811697.1
Jimmy GrahamTE2010951296.9
Brandon LaFellWR2010781496.8
Robert FosterWR20183291196.2
Donte MoncriefWR2014901496.1
Malcolm MitchellWR20161121296.1
Jamaal CharlesRB2008731695.9
Michael GallupWR2018811595.7
Tyler EifertTE2013211595.5
Matt McGloinQB2013329795
Kendall HunterRB20111151594.8
David NjokuTE2017291694.7
Kenny GolladayWR2017961194.6
Jerick McKinnonRB2014961194.3
DeVante ParkerWR201514893.4
Corey ColemanWR2016151093.3
Mark IngramRB2011281093
Chris GodwinWR2017841592.5
Cody KesslerQB201693990.8
Corey ClementRB20173291490.8
Dallas GoedertTE2018491490.4
Jaylen SamuelsRB2018165989.5
Devonta FreemanRB20141031689.3
Zach MettenbergerQB2014178789
Daryl RichardsonRB20122521687.8
Gus EdwardsRB20183291187.8
DeAndre WashingtonRB20161431387.2
Chansi StuckeyWR20082351486
Marqise LeeWR2014391285.5
Jace AmaroTE2014491384.5
David NelsonWR20103291484.3
Daniel ThomasRB2011621383.3
Josh AdamsRB20183291281.9
Jordy NelsonWR2008361681.6
Ian ThomasTE20181011081.3
Joseph FauriaTE20133291180.7
Arrelious BennWR2010391380
Aaron JonesRB20171821079.7
Julian EdelmanWR20092321079.4
Clive WalfordTE2015681578.9
Alshon JefferyWR2012451078.7
Elijah McGuireRB20171881578.2
Emmanuel SandersWR2010821177.6
Jimmy ClausenQB2010481377.5
Justin HunterWR2013341377.4
Paul PerkinsRB20161491376.8
Brandon PettigrewTE2009201076.6
Carlos HydeRB2014571476.1
Toby GerhartRB2010511575.9
Brandon GibsonWR2009194974.8
C.J. SpillerRB201091474
Donald BrownRB2009271174
Harry DouglasWR2008841573.9
David WilsonRB2012321473.2
Lorenzo TaliaferroRB20141381072.6
Robert TurbinRB20121061572.5
Jacquizz RodgersRB20111451672.3
Martellus BennettTE2008611472.3
Dane SanzenbacherWR20113291372.2
Corey DavisWR201751171.5
Jeremy KerleyWR20111531271.3
Bernard PierceRB2012841570.9
Corey BrownWR20143291170.7
Zay JonesWR2017371470.6
Rashaad PennyRB2018271270.4
Josh MorganWR20081741269.9
T.J. GrahamWR2012691569.7
Randall CobbWR2011641469
Kyle RudolphTE2011431468.9
Sammie StroughterWR20092331368.9
Jared GoffQB20161768.1
Dalvin CookRB201741467.4
Robert MeachemWR200827966.9
Dede WestbrookWR2017110766.9
Rueben RandleWR2012631066.8
Knile DavisRB2013961466.7
Andre RobertsWR2010881166.7
Travis BenjaminWR20121001266.4
DaeSean HamiltonWR2018113766.3
Coby FleenerTE2012341266.1
Jarius WrightWR2012118766.1
Shonn GreeneRB2009651366
Jordan ThomasTE20182111465.5
Ryan BroylesWR201254865
Maxx WilliamsTE2015551164.8
Marquise GoodwinWR201378964.6
Mohamed SanuWR201283664.6
BenJarvus Green-EllisRB2008329864.2
Stephen HillWR2012431164.2
Jordan WilkinsRB20181691364.1
Austin HooperTE2016811164.1
Vincent BrownWR2011821063.9
Chase EdmondsRB20181341663.1
Lex HilliardRB2009204762.7
Keke CouteeWR2018103662.7
Charles SimsRB201469862.5
Javarris JamesRB2010329862.5
Lance KendricksTE2011471562.4
Demaryius ThomasWR2010221062.4
Paul RichardsonWR2014451162.1
Justin JacksonRB2018251861.1
C.J. ProsiseRB201690661
Arian FosterRB2009329461
Damien WilliamsRB20143291360.3
T.J. YatesQB2011329659.4
D'Onta ForemanRB201789959
Adam HumphriesWR20153291159
Charles ClayTE20111741357.3
Nelson AgholorWR2015201356.9
Danario AlexanderWR2010329856.6
Delone CarterRB20111191556.5
De'Anthony ThomasWR20141241255.9
Eric EbronTE2014101255.8
Ronnie HillmanRB2012671455.2
Austin Seferian-JenkinsTE201438955.1
Dexter McClusterRB2010361055
Jake LockerQB20118554.7
Richard RodgersTE2014981354.5
Zach MillerTE20091801054.5
Stevan RidleyRB2011731254.4
Equanimeous St. BrownWR20182071154.3
Greg SalasWR2011112654.2
Gerald EverettTE2017441353.7
Luke WillsonTE20131581253.2
J.J. NelsonWR2015159952.9
Montario HardestyRB2011329952.8
Jon BaldwinWR2011261152.4
Rashad JenningsRB20092501552.3
Austin PettisWR2011781052
Andrew HawkinsWR20113291251.8
Juwan ThompsonRB20143291251.7
Seyi AjirotutuWR2010329651.2
Andrew QuarlessTE20101541250.8
Ricky Seals-JonesTE2017329850.1
Ryan GriffinTE2013201849.4
Taywan TaylorWR2017721649.4
Chaz SchilensWR20082261349.4
Darius JohnsonWR20133291049
Stedman BaileyWR201392848.9
Marvin JonesWR2012166848.8
Wendell SmallwoodRB20161531248.7
Trenton CannonRB20182041148.7
Dwayne WashingtonRB20162361148.7
Tevin ColemanRB2015731248.6
Evan RoysterRB2011177648.6
Jeff WilsonRB2018329648.4
Phillip DorsettWR2015291148.2
Jaelen StrongWR2015701048.1
Mike JamesRB2013189747.9
Felix JonesRB200822547.6
Glen CoffeeRB2009741047.2
Chester RogersWR20163291046.6
John SkeltonQB2010329546
Trent SherfieldWR2018329746
Keith KirkwoodWR2018329745.9
Damaris JohnsonWR20123291145.8
Jonnu SmithTE20171001345.7
Michael HoomanawanuiTE2010132745.6
Donald JonesWR2010329845.4
Da'Rick RogersWR2013329445.2
Mack HollinsWR20171181144.6
Geronimo AllisonWR2016329744.2
Golden TateWR2010601144.1
Benny CunninghamRB20133291344
Bernard ScottRB2009209943.8
James WashingtonWR2018601243.7
Kenyan DrakeRB2016731343.5
Chris ConleyWR201576942.9
Adam ShaheenTE201745642.7
Jacob HesterRB200869742.6
Chris JenningsRB2009329942.6
Joseph RandleRB2013151542.5
Brandon BoldenRB2012329842.5
Chris RaineyRB20121591442.2
Mike GesickiTE2018421442.2
Jalin MarshallWR2016329642.2
Ty MontgomeryRB201594542
Albert WilsonWR2014329742
Joe WebbQB2010329441.9
Anthony DixonRB20101731241.8
Kendrick BourneWR20173291041.7
Lamar MillerRB201297941.5
Chastin WestWR2011329841.3
Jay AjayiRB2015149940.7
Jed CollinsRB20113291040.4
Justin HardyWR2015107940.4
Rashad GreeneWR2015139940.3
Mike TolbertRB2008329939.8
Kalen BallageRB20181311039.7
Chris CarsonRB2017249439.7
Jordan AkinsTE2018981339.5
John StandefordWR2008329939.4
Kenneth FarrowRB20163291039.2
Shawn NelsonTE20091211038.6
Brian QuickWR2012331438.6
Ricardo LouisWR2016114838.5
Damian WilliamsWR201077938.4
Devin ThomasWR2008341138.3
Jorvorskie LaneRB20123291238.2
Alex CollinsRB2016171937.9
Mike WalkerWR200879837.7
Lance LongWR2009329837.7
Charone PeakeWR20162411137.6
Syndric SteptoeWR20082341537.2
Tanner McEvoyWR2016329837.2
Juron CrinerWR2012168837.1
Keenan BurtonWR20081281337
Cody CoreWR2016199637
Aaron BrownRB20091921436.5
Marcell AtemanWR2018228636.4
Peyton BarberRB2016329936.1
Josh FergusonRB2016329835.6
Will DisslyTE2018120435.6
Gijon RobinsonTE20083291135.6
LaVon BrazillWR20122061135.6
Kirk CousinsQB2012102335.5
Will JohnsonRB20123291335.4
Hayden HurstTE201825935.3
Cameron Artis-PayneRB2015174635.1
Seth DeValveTE2016138834.7
Gavin EscobarTE201347934.4
Jacoby BrissettQB201691334.3
Jerell AdamsTE2016184934.2
Blake BellTE2015117933.6
Paxton LynchQB201626333.4
Nick BoyleTE2015171833.3
Bruce EllingtonWR2014106733
Curtis SamuelWR201740832.9
Steve JohnsonWR2008224832.8
Antonio BrownWR2010195732.7
Deon ButlerWR2009911332.5
Silas ReddRB2014329632.2
Ed DicksonTE2010701232.2
Tion GreenRB2017329531.9
Terron WardRB20153291031.8
D.J. CharkWR2018611031.4
Chad HallWR2010329631.4
Jaron BrownWR20133291131
Dennis JohnsonRB2013329830.9
Braxton MillerWR201685930.9
Donteea DyeWR2015329930.2
Tyler KroftTE201585629.9
Keshawn MartinWR20121211329.8
James HardyWR200841929.7
Darrius Heyward-BeyWR200971129.3
Leonard HankersonWR201179429.3
Kyle AllenQB2018329229.2
Roger LewisWR2016329928.7
Levine ToiloloTE2013133928.5
Khiry RobinsonRB20133291028.4
Crockett GillmoreTE201499928.1
Richie JamesWR2018240628
Evan MooreTE2009329527.8
Cole BeasleyWR2012329827.8
Josh ReynoldsWR2017117827.4
Damion RatleyWR2018175527.4
Stephen McGeeQB2010329227.3
Keith MumpheryWR2015175826.9
Stepfan TaylorRB20131401126.6
Ka'Deem CareyRB20141171026.5
Devin SmithWR201537726.5
Marlon MooreWR2010329726.4
Stephen AndersonTE2016329926.3
Bruce MillerRB20112111126.1
Rishard MatthewsWR2012227626.1
LaRod Stephens-HowlingRB20092401325.8
Darius JenningsWR2015329325.7
Tyler HigbeeTE20161101125.5
Derek FineTE2008132625.4
Rob HouslerTE2011329825.3
Riley CooperWR2010159724.6
Marcus MasonRB2009329924.5
Ryan LindleyQB2012185624.3
Jeremy StewartRB2012329424.3
Brandon PowellWR2018329424.3
Deontay BurnettWR2018329524.3
Tommy BohanonRB20132151124.1
Andre CaldwellWR200897524.1
Joe McKnightRB2010112423.9
Brandon SaineRB2011329523.8
Max KomarWR2010329823.7
Dalton SchultzTE2018137723.6
Kahlil BellRB2009329723.4
Verran TuckerWR2010329823.4
Johnathan FranklinRB2013125423.3
Michael CampanaroWR2014218423.2
Naaman RooseveltWR2010329323.2
Early DoucetWR200881523
Cameron MeredithWR2015329623
Keith NullQB2009196422.9
Mossis MaduRB2011329522.7
Jalston FowlerTE2015108722.7
Eric DeckerWR201087522.6
Pharoh CooperWR2016117822.6
Trey QuinnWR2018256222.5
Tom SantiTE2008196322.4
Clay HarborTE2010125522.2
Bradley MarquezWR2015329921.8
Paul TurnerWR2016329321.6
David CobbRB2015138721.4
Dezmon BriscoeWR2010329221.3
Storm JohnsonRB2014222521.2
Luke StockerTE2011104921.2
Josh BoyceWR2013102621.1
Jeremiah JohnsonRB2011329620.9
Kevin ElliottWR2012329820.8
Ronald JonesRB201838620.7
Zurlon TiptonRB2014329220.6
Mike WilliamsWR20177920.5
Henry HynoskiRB2011329820.3
Vyncint SmithWR2018329420.1
Deji KarimRB2010180620
Marion GriceRB2014201620
Vance McDonaldTE2013551019.9
Jesse JamesTE2015160519.6
Akeem HuntRB2015329719.5
Stanley HaviliRB2012329919.5
Jermichael FinleyTE200891819.4
Brice ButlerWR2013209819.3
Kevin NorwoodWR2014123619.2
Stephen WilliamsWR2010329619.1
Tyrell SuttonRB2009329619
MyCole PruittTE20151431018.9
Andy JanovichRB2016176718.7
Ryan HewittTE2014329618.6
Josh HuffWR201486918.5
Josh MaloneWR2017128918.5
Ricardo LocketteWR2011329218.5
LaMichael JamesRB201261418.4
Chad HansenWR2017141618.4
Lucky WhiteheadWR2015329918.3
Chris GronkowskiRB2010329818.2
Josh CooperWR2012329618.2
Orleans DarkwaRB2014329418.1
Orson CharlesTE2012116818.1
Travis RudolphWR2017329618.1
Nate HughesWR2009329518
Robert HerronWR2014185617.8
Kevin HoganQB2016162317.7
Jamie HarperRB2011130817.6
Brian RobiskieWR200936717.6
Dontrell HilliardRB2018329617.5
Phillip TannerRB2011329417.5
Patrick RicardRB2017329417.2
Kevin OgletreeWR2009329617.2
James WrightWR20142391017.1
Tyrell WilliamsWR2015329217
Dion LewisRB2011149816.9
ArDarius StewartWR201779916.9
Lance DunbarRB2012329616.8
Mike DavisRB2015126516.6
James HannaTE2012186616.6
Jarett DillardWR2009144516.6
Chad SimpsonRB2008329416.5
Jonathan WilliamsRB2016156816.4
Jared CookTE200989816.4
Chris GraggTE2013222216.3
Cameron BatsonWR2018329616.3
Corey WashingtonWR2014329316.2
Mike BurtonRB2015168816.1
Darrel WilliamsRB2018329316.1
Demarcus AyersWR2016229216.1
Darrin ReavesRB2014329515.9
Lance BallRB2008329115.8
Alan CrossTE2016329915.8
Aaron BurbridgeWR2016213815.8
Michael BumpusWR2008329315.8
Brian HoyerQB2009329415.6
Josh HillTE2013329615.6
Myles WhiteWR2013329515.6
Tommylee LewisWR2016329515.6
Anthony ShermanRB2011136715.5
Dimitri NanceRB2010329815.5
Colin CochartTE2011329615.4
Will FranklinWR20081051015.3
Dion SimsTE2013106715.2
Jeff TuelQB2013329215.2
Theo RiddickRB2013199915.1
Amara DarbohWR2017106815.1
Adrian ArringtonWR2010329114.9
Jerome FeltonRB2008146714.7
James O'ShaughnessyTE2015173514.7
Dominique ZeiglerWR2008329414.7
Maurice HarrisWR2016329714.6
James ConnerRB20171051214.4
DeVier PoseyWR201268614.4
Jimmy GaroppoloQB201462514
Drew DavisWR2012329414
Jarryd HayneRB2015329413.9
Michael PalmerTE2010329613.9
Ryan GrantRB2014142513.8
Lavelle HawkinsWR2008126613.8
Rashard HigginsWR20161721013.7
Johnny ManzielQB201422413.7
James StarksRB2010193313.6
James JohnsonRB2008329313.6
Travis BeckumTE2009100713.5
Rhett EllisonTE2012128713.5
Chris MooreWR2016107913.5
Chris Thompson WRWR2017329313.4
Dri ArcherRB2014971013.3
John ConnerRB2010139513.3
Brad CottamTE200876613.3
Patrick MahomesQB201710113.2
Josh RobinsonRB2015205513.2
John PhillipsTE2009208613.2
Josh PerkinsTE2016329313.2
Alex EricksonWR2016329613.1
Keith FordRB2018329213
Nathan PetermanQB2017171412.9
Ryan TorainRB2008139212.9
De'Angelo HendersonRB2017203312.9
Weslye SaundersTE2011329712.9
C.J. FiedorowiczTE201465512.8
Derek WattRB2016198612.7
Tyler ConklinTE2018157412.7
Mark WaltonRB2018112612.5
James CaseyTE2009152412.4
Daniel BrownTE2015329412.4
Limas SweedWR200853412.4
Markus WheatonWR201379512.4
Mardy GilyardWR201099512.3
Russell GageWR2018194512.3
Roberto WallaceWR2010329712.2
John KellyRB2018176312.1
David PaulsonTE2012240812.1
Kory SperryTE2009329412.1
Louis RankinRB2009329411.9
Leonte CarrooWR201686511.9
Kenny MooreWR2009136811.9
Taiwan JonesRB2011125611.8
Shane VereenRB201156211.7
Josh BakerTE2011329411.7
Bryce TreggsWR2016329611.7
Derrick WilliamsWR200982611.6
Wendall WilliamsWR2016329211.5
Trevor DavisWR2016163411.4
Zach SudfeldTE2013329511.3
Devon WylieWR2012107411.3
James WhiteRB2014130311.1
Owen SchmittRB2008163611
Durham SmytheTE2018123611
Cecil ShortsWR2011114811
Trey EdmundsRB2017329110.8
Ryan SwitzerWR2017133610.6
Byron MarshallRB2016329210.4
Clifton SmithRB2008329510.4
Eldra BuckleyRB2009329610.4
Keith TostonRB2010329510.3
Joey HaynosTE2008329310.2
John ClayRB2011329210.1
Tom CrabtreeTE2010329510.1
Deonte ThompsonWR2012329210.1
Max HallQB2010329610
Isaiah PeadRB201250810
Jonathan StuparTE2009329710
Brandon JamesWR2010329210
Travaris CadetRB201232949.9
Bilal PowellRB201112629.8
Mike CoxRB200832979.7
Johnny HoltonWR201632969.7
Ladarius GreenTE201211029.6
Nic JacobsTE201432939.6
Tre McBrideWR201524529.6
Bobo WilsonWR201732939.6
Connor CookQB201610019.5
Rashard MendenhallRB20082339.5
Chad WilliamsWR20179859.4
Brian HillRB201715639.3
Jordan CameronTE201110259.3
Jeremy SprinkleTE201715439.3
Quan CosbyWR200932959.3
Trevone BoykinQB201632949.1
Zach ZennerRB201532949.1
Garrett CelekTE201232949.1
Mike CaussinTE201132939.1
Derrick WilliesWR201832919.1
Ray-Ray McCloudRB201818779
Quinton PattonWR201312839
Logan PaulsenWR201032929
Owen MarecicRB201112468.9
Taylor ThompsonTE201214588.9
Brody EldridgeTE201016268.9
Preston ParkerWR201032948.9
Detrez NewsomeRB201832938.8
Ryan PurvisTE201032958.8
Jacob HollisterTE201732998.7
Michael RobertsTE201712758.6
Josh DoctsonWR20162228.6
LaQuan WilliamsWR201132978.6
Michael CoxRB201325338.5
Mike GoodsonRB200911158.4
Cyrus GrayRB201218248.2
Pat WhiteQB200944108.1
Matt DayesRB201725258.1
Ben BrauneckerTE201632938.1
Michael ClarkWR201732928.1
Logan ThomasTE201412028.1
Zack PianaltoTE201132948
Jawill DavisWR201832938
Christine MichaelRB20136237.9
Chris OgbonnayaRB200921127.9
Nick KasaTE201317247.9
Chad BeebeWR201832927.9
Trey WattsRB201432947.8
Connor ShawQB201432917.8
Nate ByhamTE201018267.7
Jim DrayTE201023377.7
Jarrett BoykinWR201232957.7
Terrence AustinWR201032927.7
Auden TateWR201825347.5
Ryan TaylorTE201121817.4
Dantrell SavageRB200832937.3
Isaiah McKenzieWR201717277.3
Javon WimsWR201822427.2
Marko MitchellWR200924347.2
Kregg LumpkinRB200832917.1
Roc ThomasRB201832957.1
MarQueis GrayTE201332987.1
Toney ClemonsWR201223147.1
Taylor PriceWR201032917.1
Nick MillerWR201032937
Fitzgerald ToussaintRB201432926.9
Jack DoyleTE201332956.9
Logan PayneWR200832926.9
Matt BarkleyQB20139836.8
Mike BooneRB201832966.8
Troy NiklasTE20145236.8
Dan VitaleRB201619756.7
Brandon WildsRB201632936.7
Josh VaughanRB201032916.7
Ryan WhalenWR201116736.7
Mike ThomasWR201620666.7
Jalen TolliverWR201832936.7
Denard RobinsonRB2013135126.6
Michael HillRB201332936.6
DeMarco SampsonWR201124956.6
Tanner GentryWR201732946.5
Shaun WilsonRB201832956.4
Mickey ShulerTE201032926.4
Daniel LascoRB201623736.3
Pierre GarconWR200820526.3
Nick VannettTE20169436.2
Evan RodriguezRB201211176.1
Quinten LawrenceWR200917536.1
Jermaine KearseWR201232956.1
James DavisRB200919526
Manase TongaRB201132936
Kris DurhamWR201110726
Brandon LondonWR200832956
Troymaine PopeRB201632945.9
Brandon MyersTE200920245.9
Stephen BurtonWR201123615.8
De'Veon SmithRB201732915.7
Jordan FranksTE201832935.7
DuJuan HarrisRB201132955.6
Darrell DanielsTE201732965.6
Richard BartelQB201032915.5
Malcolm JohnsonWR201519555.5
Fred DavisTE20082545.4
Virgil GreenTE201120445.4
Mario ManninghamWR20089565.4
Albert YoungRB200932925.3
JoJo NatsonWR201732935.3
Niles PaulTE201115555.2
Matt LaCosseTE201532915.2
Tyler ErvinRB201611935.1
Joey IosefaRB201523125.1
Tim CastilleRB200832945.1
Lee SmithTE201115925.1
Emanuel ByrdTE201732915.1
Gator HoskinsTE201432945.1
Lamaar ThomasWR201332925.1
Da'Rel ScottRB201122144.9
Javon RingerRB200917324.8
Armando AllenRB201132924.8
Malcolm KellyWR20085154.8
Nate EachusRB201232924.7
Ray AgnewRB201432994.7
Nick O'LearyTE201519434.7
Skye DawsonWR201332964.7
Kris AdamsWR201232934.6
Johnny WhiteRB201113344.5
Antony AuclairTE201732924.5
Andrew TurzilliWR201532914.5
Nick WilliamsWR201332944.5
Chandler WorthyWR201532934.4
Gartrell JohnsonRB200913434.3
Cody LatimerWR20145634.3
Clyde GatesWR201132974.3
Jacob TammeTE200812724.2
De'Lance TurnerRB201832924.1
Alex EllisTE201632934.1
Geremy DavisWR201518634.1
Malik TurnerWR201832924
C.J. AndersonRB201332923.8
Cole WickTE201632933.8
Jehu ChessonWR201713923.8
Devin StreetWR201414643.8
Darren WallerWR201520433.8
DeAndrew WhiteWR201532913.8
J.D. McKissicWR201632913.8
Tom SavageQB201413523.8
Mike HartRB200820223.7
Martin RuckerTE200811143.7
Khadarel HodgeWR201832933.7
David WilliamsRB201822633.6
D.J. FosterRB201632923.6
David ClowneyWR200815723.6
Jeff JanisWR201423613.6
Brandon BanksWR201032953.6
Corey GrantRB201532953.5
Fendi OnobunTE201017013.5
Cole HikutiniTE201732923.5
J'Mon MooreWR201813323.5
Richard GoodmanWR201032923.5
Kenjon BarnerRB201318233.4
Jay ProschRB201421133.4
Ross DwelleyTE201832923.4
Chris OwusuWR201232923.4
Chad HenneQB20085713.4
Jonathan GrimesRB201232923.3
D.J. WilliamsTE201114143.3
Marquess WilsonWR201323633.3
Brandon ZylstraWR201832923.3
Don JacksonRB201632933.2
David AusberryTE201124123.2
Devante MaysRB201723823.1
Antonio AndrewsRB201432913.1
Cory HarkeyTE201232923.1
Shelton GibsonWR201716613.1
Brian BrohmQB20095623
Ray GrahamRB201332913
Tyler VargaRB201532923
Joe AdamsWR201210433
Eddie WilliamsRB201132922.9
David JohnsonTE200924142.9
Aaron RipkowskiRB201520612.8
Chauncey WashingtonRB200821332.8
Jonathan DwyerRB201032912.8
Olaniyi SobomehinRB200832912.8
Steve SandersWR200832942.8
Cardale JonesQB201613912.7
Jalen ParmeleRB200817612.7
Ryan D'ImperioRB201132962.7
Jake O'ConnellTE200923742.7
Cameron BrateTE201432912.7
Hayden SmithTE201232912.6
Ramses BardenWR20098512.6
Tyler MurphyWR201532912.6
Malcolm BrownRB201532912.5
Laquon TreadwellWR20162322.5
Mario AlfordWR201523812.5
Bralon AddisonWR201632912.5
Quinn JohnsonRB200914542.4
Matt FlanaganTE201832922.4
Tyler GrishamWR200932912.4
Tony PikeQB201020412.4
Henry Krieger-CobleTE201632912.3
Jordan WhiteWR201224412.3
Kasen WilliamsWR201532912.3
Tyler PalkoQB201032922.3
Jason DavisRB200832922.2
Mike GillisleeRB201316412.1
John CrockettRB201532922.1
Sammie CoatesWR20158712.1
Rusty SmithQB201017622
Erik LorigRB201025322
Emmanuel ArceneauxWR201132912
Alonzo HarrisRB201532931.9
Collin MooneyRB201232911.9
Craig StevensTE20088521.9
Anthony HillTE200912211.9
Bear PascoeTE200918411.9
Shaun ChapasTE201122011.9
Jaymar JohnsonWR200919311.9
Ben EdwardsWR201532911.9
Cam PhillipsWR201832911.9
Solomon PattonWR201432911.9
Zach LineRB201332931.8
Dominique JonesTE201232911.8
Marcel JensenTE201432911.8
Kyle WilliamsWR201020611.8
Darvin KidsyWR201832911.8
LaRon ByrdWR201232921.8
Paul HubbardWR201032911.8
Thomas ClaytonRB201032921.7
Terrence MageeRB201532911.7
E.J. BibbsTE201532921.7
Khari LeeTE201532931.7
Tommy GallardaTE201232931.7
Paul WilliamsWR20088021.7
Jalen SaundersWR201410411.7
Allen LazardWR201832911.7
Alex GreenRB20119611.6
Josh HarrisRB201432921.6
Ronnie WingoRB201332911.6
Brian ParkerTE201532921.6
Dallas BakerWR200822711.6
Chris HarperWR201532931.6
Charly MartinWR200932921.6
Manuel JohnsonWR201032921.6
Paul McRobertsWR201632911.6
Rod SmithWR201532921.6
Colin KaepernickQB20113621.6
Sean MannionQB20158911.6
Justin WatsonRB201814431.5
Ryan MahaffeyRB201132911.5
Stefan LoganRB200932911.5
Will Ta'ufo'ouRB201232911.5
Julius ThomasTE201112941.5
Allen ReisnerTE201132911.5
David ReedWR201015621.5
Cooper RushQB201732921.4
LeShun Daniels Jr.RB201732921.4
Matt LawrenceRB200932911.4
C.J. UzomahTE201515711.4
David MorganTE201618811.4
Justice CunninghamTE201325411.4
Dan GronkowskiTE200925511.4
Mike HigginsTE201132911.4
Duke CalhounWR201032911.4
Allen BradfordRB201118711.3
Brad SmelleyRB201224711.3
Cameron MorrahTE200924811.3
Buck OrtegaTE200832921.3
Jeff CumberlandTE201032911.3
Zach PotterTE200932911.3
Jordan PaytonWR201615421.3
J.J. JonesWR201832921.3
Chris PressleyRB200932921.2
Trey WilliamsRB201532911.2
Richard GordonTE201118111.2
Colin ClohertyTE200932911.2
John RossWR2017931.2
Jerome SimpsonWR20084631.2
Gary BanksWR201032921.2
Tyrod TaylorQB201118021.1
Curtis BrinkleyRB201032921.1
Dennis PittaTE201011431.1
Brandon TateWR20098321.1
Spencer WareRB201319411
Geoff SwaimTE201524611
Trey BurtonWR201432911
Cierre WoodRB201332920.9
Senorise PerryRB201432910.9
Carlton MitchellWR201032910.9
Anthony AllenRB201122510.8
Matt FlynnQB200820940.7
Armanti EdwardsWR20108920.7
Javarris WilliamsRB200921230.6
Nathan PalmerWR201232930.6
Curtis PainterQB200920120.6
Kevin O'ConnellQB20089420.6
Xavier OmonRB200817920.5
Dan HerronRB201219120.5
Kory SheetsRB200932910.5
Armond SmithRB201132920.2
Jehuu CaulcrickRB201032910.2
Justin DavisRB201732910.1
Jakeem GrantWR201618620.1
Tom BrandstaterQB201132910
Tony FiammettaRB200912830
Kyle JuszczykRB201313010
Marcus MurphyRB201523010
Marquez WilliamsRB201724010
Brock BolenRB200932920
Charcandrick WestRB201432910
Jerome JohnsonRB201032910
Joe KerridgeRB201632910
Quinn PorterRB201132910
Richard QuinnTE20096410
Vince MayleTE201512310
Gary BarnidgeTE200814110
Keith ZingerTE200923210
Asante ClevelandTE201432910
Braedon BowmanTE201632910
Cethan CarterTE201732910
Collin FranklinTE201132910
Hakeem VallesTE201632920
Jeron MastrudTE201032910
Jordan ThompsonTE201432910
Tyson DeVreeTE200832910
Will YeatmanTE201132910
A.J. JenkinsWR20123010
Earl BennettWR20087010
Jerrel JerniganWR20118320
Marcus SmithWR200810640
Tandon DossWR201112320
Matthew SlaterWR200815320
Marvin McNuttWR201219410
Jordan KentWR200821020
Justin HarperWR200921510
Brett SwainWR200921710
Todd WatkinsWR200821810
Stacy ColeyWR201721910
Marc MarianiWR201022220
Daniel BravermanWR201623020
Chris LacyWR201832910
Dorin DickersonWR201032910
Freddie MartinoWR201432910
Greg JenkinsWR201332910
Isaiah BurseWR201432910
Isaac WhitneyWR201732910
Jake AllenWR200932910
Joe HastingsWR201132910
Jeremy HorneWR201032910
Jeff MaehlWR201132910
John MatthewsWR201032910
Jamar NewsomeWR201132910
Kerry MeierWR201132910
Kalif RaymondWR201632920
Mike BrownWR201232910
Maurice PurifyWR200932910
Ryan SpadolaWR201332910
Samuel GiguereWR200932910
Trevor SiemianQB20152501-0.1
Andre BrownRB20103291-0.1
Dennis DixonQB20081561-0.2
Devin MooreRB20103291-0.2
Brandon BurksRB20163291-0.4
Brock OsweilerQB2012575-0.7
Levi BrownQB20103291-0.8
Caleb HanieQB20093292-1.5
Kyle LaulettaQB20181081-2.2
Image Credit: Ken Murray/Icon Sportswire. Pictured: Hakeem Butler.

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  1. If you’re interested in the thought process used to arrive at this date range listening to the pod should provide some insight.  (back)
  2. This is also somewhat arbitrary, but for an exercise like this should be suitable.  (back)
  3. To be clear, I’m considering “usability” in a season-long context. Different conclusions could be drawn, and likely a different approach would be needed, if the question instead was “How often do rookies become usable at any point during the fantasy season?”  (back)
  4. This is true of veterans as well.  (back)
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