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2019 RotoViz Projections At A Glance

I’ve played a significant role in our projection building for a number of years and have grown to truly appreciate the process. I recently completed my set of 2019 projections which you can find here. The process has become a key part of my offseason preparation as it helps me to better understand a player’s range of outcomes, the key inputs that will shape his season, obtain a better estimate of his floor and ceiling, and understand the portion of his offense that he could realistically control.

Unfortunately, much of that information doesn’t make its way into the final numbers presented in my projections. For this reason, remember that projections are just a single input into a broader decision-making process. Resist getting married to my or any projections. They are just best guesses, that in some cases lack context, and don’t address a player’s range of outcomes or speak to his downside/upside.

I should mention, however, that we will soon be releasing a shiny new tool that will help you to build your own projections. I strongly recommend that you spend a couple of hours with it as soon as it releases.

A Top-Down Approach

We employ a top-down approach at RotoViz. It consists of three distinct phases. In the first phase, we determine an estimate of the number of plays that a team’s offense will compile. As I wrote about last year, wins and losses are a major driver of a team’s overall play volume. This total is then divided between rushing and passing attempts. In phase two, percentages of passing and rushing attempts are assigned to specific players. This determines the workload they’re expected to shoulder. Phase three factors in player-specific assumptions such as catch rate and yards per carry. When developing efficiency assumptions we consider each player’s historical results, changes in his situation, positional benchmarks, and other predictive factors.

When building my projections I create assumptions for every skill player that I expect to garner more than 1% of rushing or passing attempts. This is important as the results of all passing attempts aggregate up to the quarterback. Additionally, it helps to ensure that the percentages of plays I assign to each player are realistic. In the projections presented on the site, only players projected to score more than 85 PPR points are included.

Starters By Position

The full set of projections, stat-lines underlying the fantasy points projected below, and links to download in CSV format can be found on our projections page. Here’s a high-level glance at the top players at each position.

Quarterback (top-12)

 
Rank Name Team FourPT SixPT
1 Patrick Mahomes KC 325 385
2 DeShaun Watson HOU 306 358
3 Jared Goff LAR 306 366
4 Baker Mayfield CLE 306 372
5 Cam Newton CAR 303 357
6 Andrew Luck IND 300 366
7 Dak Prescott DAL 297 347
8 Russell Wilson SEA 294 354
9 Carson Wentz PHI 293 355
10 Mitchell Trubisky CHI 292 346
11 Kyler Murray ARI 291 335
12 Aaron Rodgers GB 288 346

Running Back (top-24)

 
Rank Name Team PPR HalfPPR Standard
1 Christian McCaffrey CAR 359 313 267
2 Ezekiel Elliott DAL 330 300 270
3 Saquon Barkley NYG 326 288 250
4 Alvin Kamara NO 318 288 257
5 David Johnson ARI 293 266 239
6 James Conner PIT 281 249 216
7 Le’Veon Bell NYJ 271 241 210
8 Joe Mixon CIN 269 243 217
9 Melvin Gordon LAC 268 245 222
10 Damien Williams KC 247 229 211
11 Nick Chubb CLE 243 229 215
12 Leonard Fournette JAX 237 215 192
13 Devonta Freeman ATL 234 216 197
14 Aaron Jones GB 228 208 187
15 Todd Gurley LAR 224 208 191
16 Phillip Lindsay DEN 222 195 167
17 Marlon Mack IND 218 204 189
18 Dalvin Cook MIN 218 198 177
19 Kenyan Drake MIA 208 187 166
20 Lamar Miller HOU 206 190 174
21 Tarik Cohen CHI 202 168 134
22 James White NE 201 166 130
23 Kerryon Johnson DET 201 180 159
24 Derrick Henry TEN 195 188 181

Wide Receiver (top-36)

 
Rank Name Team PPR HalfPPR Standard
1 Juju Smith-Schuster PIT 336 278 220
2 Davante Adams GB 301 250 199
3 DeAndre Hopkins HOU 299 249 198
4 Tyreek Hill KC 291 248 204
5 Michael Thomas NO 289 233 176
6 Julio Jones ATL 287 238 189
7 Odell Beckham CLE 286 239 191
8 Keenan Allen LAC 276 222 168
9 Antonio Brown OAK 273 225 176
10 Amari Cooper DAL 272 226 180
11 A.J. Green CIN 267 222 177
12 Stefon Diggs MIN 264 216 167
13 Adam Thielen MIN 259 209 159
14 Brandin Cooks LAR 258 216 174
15 T.y. Hilton IND 252 211 170
16 Cooper Kupp LAR 251 210 168
17 Robert Woods LAR 250 207 163
18 Julian Edelman NE 247 199 151
19 Jarvis Landry CLE 237 192 146
20 Kenny Golladay DET 235 196 157
21 Mike Evans TB 235 196 156
22 Christian Kirk ARI 229 187 145
23 Tyler Boyd CIN 227 186 145
24 Allen Robinson CHI 224 184 144
25 Alshon Jeffery PHI 217 180 143
26 Tyler Lockett SEA 214 178 142
27 D.J. Moore CAR 208 172 136
28 Chris Godwin TB 203 169 134
29 Calvin Ridley ATL 202 166 130
30 Larry Fitzgerald ARI 199 158 116
31 Will Fuller HOU 199 168 137
32 Mike Williams LAC 198 167 135
33 Dede Westbrook JAX 192 154 116
34 Robby Anderson NYJ 189 159 128
35 Corey Davis TEN 189 153 117
36 Curtis Samuel CAR 187 157 126

Tight End (top-12)

 
Rank Name Team PPR HalfPPR Standard
1 Travis Kelce KC 272 224 176
2 Zach Ertz PHI 252 203 154
3 George Kittle SF 235 194 152
4 Evan Engram NYG 186 152 117
5 O.J. Howard TB 184 156 127
6 David Njoku CLE 158 130 101
7 Eric Ebron IND 149 123 97
8 Vance McDonald PIT 149 121 92
9 Kyle Rudolph MIN 142 114 85
10 Hunter Henry LAC 140 115 90
11 Trey Burton CHI 139 114 89
12 Jared Cook NO 134 110 86
Image Credit: Larry Radloff/Icon Sportswire. Pictured: Davante Adams.


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