We have yet another week at an unknown course this week. The 3M Open is being held at TPC Twin Cities up in Blain, Minnesota. It’s the first non-major PGA event to be held in Minnesota since 1969. TPC Twin Cities is an Arnold Palmer designed course that will play as a 7,450-yard par 71 this week. The greens are bentgrass and are average size coming in at 6,500 square feet. The field will have to contend with 72 bunkers and 27 water hazards as they make their way around the track.
Checking the Chalk
Brooks Koepka ($11,900) is the most expensive golfer on the slate this week. It’s hard to argue against that given his dominance lately. There might be something to the whole “he only shows up for majors” thing, but he’s still one of the most talented golfers on the planet right now. Not only that, but we don’t have a way to quantify his motivation heading into a tournament. One thing we can quantify is ball-striking and Koepka has hit over 60% of his greens in regulation in each of his six starts since The PLAYERS Championship.
To put it kindly, Bryson DeChambeau ($10,500) hasn’t been the guy that we saw at the end of the summer through much of 2019. He’s lost strokes in at least one of the four major categories in every start since February heading into the Travelers Championship. Something clicked in Connecticut, though, as he gained strokes everywhere and finished in eighth place. DeChambeau has made three cuts in a row for the first time since April, which doesn’t sound like much, but he’s not far off now. He will likely be a popular option for players who are fading the very top of the salary scale.
Joaquin Niemann ($9,300) and Viktor Hovland ($9,100) are two popular young guns for this week. Niemann seems to be trending in the right direction lately. He showed that he can string high finishes together last season but he hadn’t shown much upside to this point in 2019. Niemann had increased his greens in regulation in each start since the Valero Texas Open and hit his stride in Connecticut, finishing in fifth place. He’s averaging 3.5 strokes on approach over his last two starts, per the RotoViz Splits App. Hovland is quickly becoming a DFS darling. In each of his past two starts, he’s made us sweat out the cut on Friday but made it through. In his past three events, he’s averaging over 70% of GIR per the RotoViz Splits App. During that span, he’s gaining over six strokes tee to green. All he’s done during that span is set the U.S. Open amateur scoring record and finish in the top 15 twice.
I wrote about how Hideki Matsuyama ($11,100) should have been $11,200 last week. Even with the price jump of $900 from last week’s price, he’s still too cheap. The pricing model puts him at $11,400 this week after more solid scoring in Detroit. For a guy who “doesn’t have any upside” according to some, he sure scores a lot of DK Points. He’s averaging over 80 DK points in his 14 starts so far this year. Over his last three starts, Hideki’s been even better with an average of nearly 95 points.
Cameron Tringale ($7,700) had quietly been putting his game back together over the past few months. He has now made six of his last seven cuts, culminating in a fifth place finish last weekend. Since the start of 2014, Tringale has averaged -2.3 strokes off the tee and just 0.7 strokes on approach. Over his past seven starts, those numbers have improved by nearly two strokes in each category. Tringale is an interesting option with some upside for GPPs in a field like this.
He’s a total dart throw but Josh Teater ($6,500) makes a bit of sense this week. The model doesn’t love him because the long term form isn’t there. But, he’s a talented kid and has gotten his game together lately. In fact, 10 of his last 16 rounds have wound up in the 60s and he’s made four straight cuts. Teater isn’t the longest off the tee, but he can keep it in front of him and hit greens in regulation. At $6,500 in a weak field, can you really ask for much more?
I also wrote about Sungjae Im ($9,000) over on the Yahoo article. A quick note though … I have him priced at $9,800 so his $9,000 price tag is rather enticing.
So far this season, the totals for the cash locks are 43/48 (89.5%) made cuts, 32/48 (66.7%) top 30s, and 14/48 (29%) top 10s. Here are this week’s cash locks:
- Hideki Matsuyama ($11,100)
- Joaquin Niemann ($9,300)
Ownership Projections and Model Results - 3M OpenFinal run of ownership
|Charles Howell III||8400||0.81||15.3|
|Si Woo Kim||7300||0.66||3.8|
|Ted Potter Jr||6700||0.36||2.0|
|Tyrone Van Aswegen||6500||0.43||0.2|
Image Credit: Fred Kfoury III/Icon Sportswire. Pictured: Joaquin Niemann.
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