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Joaquin Niemann is Still Too Cheap: 3M Open Plays and Pivots on DraftKings

We have yet another week at an unknown course this week. The 3M Open is being held at TPC Twin Cities up in Blain, Minnesota. It’s the first non-major PGA event to be held in Minnesota since 1969. TPC Twin Cities is an Arnold Palmer designed course that will play as a 7,450-yard par 71 this week. The greens are bentgrass and are average size coming in at 6,500 square feet. The field will have to contend with 72 bunkers and 27 water hazards as they make their way around the track.

Checking the Chalk

Brooks Koepka ($11,900) is the most expensive golfer on the slate this week. It’s hard to argue against that given his dominance lately. There might be something to the whole “he only shows up for majors” thing, but he’s still one of the most talented golfers on the planet right now. Not only that, but we don’t have a way to quantify his motivation heading into a tournament. One thing we can quantify is ball-striking and Koepka has hit over 60% of his greens in regulation in each of his six starts since The PLAYERS Championship. 

To put it kindly, Bryson DeChambeau ($10,500) hasn’t been the guy that we saw at the end of the summer through much of 2019. He’s lost strokes in at least one of the four major categories in every start since February heading into the Travelers Championship. Something clicked in Connecticut, though, as he gained strokes everywhere and finished in eighth place. DeChambeau has made three cuts in a row for the first time since April, which doesn’t sound like much, but he’s not far off now. He will likely be a popular option for players who are fading the very top of the salary scale. 

Joaquin Niemann ($9,300) and Viktor Hovland ($9,100) are two popular young guns for this week. Niemann seems to be trending in the right direction lately. He showed that he can string high finishes together last season but he hadn’t shown much upside to this point in 2019. Niemann had increased his greens in regulation in each start since the Valero Texas Open and hit his stride in Connecticut, finishing in fifth place. He’s averaging 3.5 strokes on approach over his last two starts, per the RotoViz Splits App. Hovland is quickly becoming a DFS darling. In each of his past two starts, he’s made us sweat out the cut on Friday but made it through. In his past three events, he’s averaging over 70% of GIR per the RotoViz Splits App. During that span, he’s gaining over six strokes tee to green. All he’s done during that span is set the U.S. Open amateur scoring record and finish in the top 15 twice. 

GPP Plays

I wrote about how Hideki Matsuyama ($11,100) should have been $11,200 last week. Even with the price jump of $900 from last week’s price, he’s still too cheap. The pricing model puts him at $11,400 this week after more solid scoring in Detroit. For a guy who “doesn’t have any upside” according to some, he sure scores a lot of DK Points. He’s averaging over 80 DK points in his 14 starts so far this year. Over his last three starts, Hideki’s been even better with an average of nearly 95 points. 

Cameron Tringale ($7,700) had quietly been putting his game back together over the past few months. He has now made six of his last seven cuts, culminating in a fifth place finish last weekend. Since the start of 2014, Tringale has averaged -2.3 strokes off the tee and just 0.7 strokes on approach. Over his past seven starts, those numbers have improved by nearly two strokes in each category. Tringale is an interesting option with some upside for GPPs in a field like this.

He’s a total dart throw but Josh Teater ($6,500) makes a bit of sense this week. The model doesn’t love him because the long term form isn’t there. But, he’s a talented kid and has gotten his game together lately. In fact, 10 of his last 16 rounds have wound up in the 60s and he’s made four straight cuts. Teater isn’t the longest off the tee, but he can keep it in front of him and hit greens in regulation. At $6,500 in a weak field, can you really ask for much more?

I also wrote about Sungjae Im ($9,000) over on the Yahoo article. A quick note though … I have him priced at $9,800 so his $9,000 price tag is rather enticing. 

Cash Locks

So far this season, the totals for the cash locks are 43/48 (89.5%) made cuts, 32/48 (66.7%) top 30s, and 14/48 (29%) top 10s. Here are this week’s cash locks:

  • Hideki Matsuyama ($11,100)
  • Joaquin Niemann ($9,300)

Ownership Projections and Model Results - 3M Open

Final run of ownership
NameSalaryModel ScoreOwn%
Bryson DeChambeau105000.8427.4
Tony Finau92000.7222.9
Joaquin Niemann93000.7720.1
Patrick Reed100000.7619.3
Sung-jae Im90000.8316.8
Brooks Koepka119000.9116.2
Hideki Matsuyama111001.0016.2
Viktor Hovland91000.7815.5
Charles Howell III84000.8115.3
Kevin Streelman89000.8914.6
Phil Mickelson85000.6514.5
Jason Day109000.8913.8
Max Homa70000.8013.7
Keegan Bradley88000.7413.1
Cameron Tringale77000.7713.0
Scott Piercy82000.8812.8
Nate Lashley83000.8412.6
Rory Sabbatini95000.9312.4
Adam Hadwin81000.7612.2
Cameron Champ75000.5411.4
Jason Dufner77000.6311.2
Corey Conners74000.6311.1
Kevin Na86000.8010.8
Mackenzie Hughes74000.6910.6
J.J. Spaun78000.6710.5
Sepp Straka75000.6510.2
Ryan Moore87000.789.8
Talor Gooch76000.759.8
Charley Hoffman78000.679.2
Luke List74000.649.1
Sung-Hoon Kang75000.758.9
Doc Redman72000.918.0
Keith Mitchell74000.677.9
Peter Malnati78000.797.7
Wyndham Clark71000.747.4
Collin Morikawa79000.797.3
Danny Lee76000.627.0
Sam Burns73000.766.6
Jimmy Walker75000.646.3
Lucas Glover77000.806.3
Kyle Stanley76000.595.5
Brian Harman80000.685.4
Nick Watney79000.745.2
Henry Lebioda69000.704.8
Matthew Wolff73000.734.6
Troy Merritt69000.664.5
Daniel Berger80000.703.9
Si Woo Kim73000.663.8
Josh Teater65000.613.6
Denny McCarthy71000.723.0
Zack Sucher68000.572.6
Dylan Frittelli72000.702.5
Sam Ryder71000.652.5
Bronson Burgoon68000.522.5
Pat Perez76000.642.4
Harris English66000.682.3
Ryan Armour68000.632.2
Jonas Blixt72000.752.1
Ted Potter Jr67000.362.0
Andrew Landry67000.572.0
Nick Taylor72000.721.9
Beau Hossler69000.531.8
Bud Cauley73000.721.8
Adam Schenk69000.671.8
Trey Mullinax69000.661.7
Russell Henley70000.591.5
Adam Svensson63000.551.4
Brendan Steele72000.531.3
Kyoung-Hoon Lee69000.671.3
Michael Thompson71000.731.2
Shawn Stefani66000.631.2
Wes Roach70000.581.1
Matt Jones70000.761.1
Tom Hoge63000.521.1
Brian Gay64000.561.0
Stephan Jaeger68000.580.9
Alex Prugh67000.630.9
Chesson Hadley73000.520.9
Ollie Schniederjans65000.540.8
Adam Long68000.620.8
Martin Laird74000.670.8
Joey Garber66000.510.8
Robert Streb64000.530.8
Peter Uihlein71000.560.8
Scott Stallings69000.630.7
Robert Garrigus64000.460.7
Julian Etulain60000.570.7
Brice Garnett68000.550.6
Austin Cook70000.540.6
Bill Haas71000.550.5
Sebastian Munoz67000.640.4
Patton Kizzire65000.510.4
Roger Sloan66000.550.4
Brandon Harkins67000.550.3
Scott Brown68000.650.3
Satoshi Kodaira61000.200.3
Martin Trainer62000.400.3
Benjamin Silverman65000.600.3
Martin Piller66000.560.3
Dominic Bozzelli64000.590.3
Roberto Diaz70000.670.3
Tyrone Van Aswegen65000.430.2
Kelly Kraft63000.430.2
Anirban Lahiri65000.450.2
Kramer Hickok64000.580.2
Carlos Ortiz66000.620.2
Cameron Davis63000.580.2
Scott Langley65000.480.2
Jim Knous62000.570.2
Ryan Blaum67000.540.2
Ben Crane62000.580.2
Ben Crane62000.410.2
Chris Stroud63000.520.2
Tom Lehman62000.740.2
Charlie Danielson62000.350.2
Hunter Mahan61000.460.2
Sang-Moon Bae65000.460.2
David Hearn67000.560.2
Smylie Kaufman61000.000.2
Tyler Duncan66000.560.2
Roberto Castro64000.510.1
Sam Saunders64000.490.1
Richy Werenski61000.510.1
Tim Herron60000.460.1
Justin Suh63000.580.1
Nicholas Lindheim64000.550.1
Johnson Wagner62000.710.1
David Berganio60000.410.1
Craig Brischke60000.410.1
Chris Thompson60000.410.1
Chris Thompson60000.410.1
Michael Kim60000.410.1
Alvaro Ortiz60000.410.1
Colt Knost60000.400.1
Kyle Jones60000.380.1
Kris Blanks60000.340.1
Whee Kim60000.330.1
Michael Kim60000.310.1
Michael Kim60000.240.1
Curtis Luck63000.550.1
Seth Reeves63000.410.1
Fredrik Jacobson62000.490.1
Rod Pampling62000.350.1
Brady Schnell62000.440.1
Anders Albertson61000.450.1
Derek Fathauer62000.430.1
Chase Wright61000.560.1
Will Claxton61000.440.1
Morgan Hoffmann61000.320.1
Fabian Gomez61000.440.1
Alex Cejka61000.390.1
Tom Lovelady61000.450.1
Cody Gribble61000.460.1
Chad Collins60000.500.0
John Chin60000.410.0
J.J. Henry60000.460.0
Image Credit: Fred Kfoury III/Icon Sportswire. Pictured: Joaquin Niemann.

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