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John Deere Classic: PGA DFS Plays and Pivots on DraftKings

After a few weeks with debut courses on Tour we’re back with a familiar venue in TPC Deere Run. We’re looking at a 7,100-yard par-71 course out in Illinois for the John Deere Classic as our last stop before The Open Championship. The course features bentgrass greens that are around tour average at 6,000 square feet. The course is dotted with 78 bunkers and four water hazards. For more about the course, head over to yesterday’s article. 

Checking the Chalk

The trio of golfers all the way at the top of the field have a combined age of 63 years old. Viktor Hovland ($10,900), Collin Morikawa ($10,700), and Matthew Wolff ($10,500) are the most expensive golfers in the field this week. From a recent form perspective and a raw talent perspective, it’s hard to argue against any of these guys. All Hovland has done is set the US Open amateur scoring record and make four straight cuts since the start of June. Six of his past eight rounds have been in the 60s. His other two rounds? 70 exactly. Morikawa was a lip-out away from a playoff last week with eventual winner Wolff. These guys are young, and they are good. Morikawa is at the top of the heap in my pricing model with an expected $11,700 price tag.

Joaquin Niemann ($10,200) might seem like the forgotten man here in his second year but he’s being talked up plenty and could be the highest owned of these young guys this week. Over his past four events, Niemann has hit at least two-thirds of his GIR in every start, including two straight events over 80% now. Out of those 16 rounds, 12 have wound up in the 60s. 

Zach Johnson ($9,600) is the course history darling. Dating back to 2012, he has made every cut in his seven tries and has a victory to go along with four other top-5 finishes in that span. He’s been so-so lately, though, as he hasn’t hit more than 60% of his greens in regulation since the Wells Fargo back in the first week of May. From a fit perspective, he obviously makes sense here but the fact that he hasn’t finished in the DK bonus since April is concerning. 

GPP Plays

Sungjae Im ($9,700) has been all that was advertised, as well, through the start of the 2019 season. He’s had his share of ups and downs but he has strung five straight cuts together including finishes inside of the top 21. In each of his past four starts, he’s been scoring well. Im has had at least three rounds in the 60s over that span. He’s a great upside play this week if he can continue to string birdies together like that. My pricing model has Im at $10,000 so we are getting a fair bit of value here. 

We might be staying on him too long, but Cameron Tringale ($7,700) makes sense again this week. He has continued his solid tee-to-green game, gaining an average of 2.74 strokes in that category over his past five starts. That’s more than 3 strokes better than his average in our database.

tringale 

Peter Malnati ($7,900) is another interesting play this week. Malnati has made a half dozen straight cuts now and has hit over 60% of GIR over that span. During that span, he’s gaining 2.5 strokes tee-to-green compared to his average of -1.78 in his previous 117 events in our database. That’s been accompanied by hitting an average of an extra 1.5 greens per round. 

Cash Locks

So far this season, the totals for the cash locks are 45/50 (90%) made cuts, 34/50 (68%) top 30s, and 15/50 (30%) top 10s. Here are this week’s cash locks:

  • Collin Morikawa ($10,700)
  • Sungjae Im ($9,700)

Ownership Projections and Model Results - John Deere Classic

Final run of ownership projections
NameDK$AvgModel Score
Viktor Hovland10900.0021.50.91
Collin Morikawa10700.0016.51.00
Matthew Wolff10500.0015.50.81
Joaquin Niemann10200.0028.50.85
Lucas Glover9800.009.00.80
Sungjae Im9700.0021.60.83
Zach Johnson9600.0013.50.70
Charles Howell III9500.0011.10.80
Brian Harman9400.0013.50.72
Daniel Berger9300.005.30.71
Ryan Moore9200.0013.70.75
Sam Burns9100.0011.10.77
Wyndham Clark9000.0014.70.83
Kevin Tway8900.0011.30.77
Kyle Stanley8800.009.50.62
Bud Cauley8700.007.80.73
Ryan Palmer8600.009.60.70
Nate Lashley8500.0010.80.84
Joel Dahmen8400.0016.00.69
Scott Brown8300.0015.50.69
Martin Laird8200.005.50.66
Jason Dufner8100.007.00.70
Nick Watney8000.002.70.70
Peter Malnati7900.0010.50.75
Mackenzie Hughes7900.006.00.74
J.T. Poston7800.0010.70.73
Bronson Burgoon7800.007.90.61
Cameron Tringale7700.0016.50.79
Vaughn Taylor7700.0015.50.81
Talor Gooch7700.004.50.76
Danny Lee7600.009.20.65
Dylan Frittelli7600.006.50.74
Cameron Champ7600.003.40.52
Sam Ryder7500.0016.50.69
Troy Merritt7500.0013.70.73
Denny McCarthy7500.008.90.75
Pat Perez7500.005.40.67
Harold Varner III7400.009.60.68
Jhonattan Vegas7400.007.50.78
Brian Stuard7400.006.00.75
Nick Taylor7400.001.50.73
Ryan Armour7300.004.40.65
Joey Garber7300.003.70.62
Sepp Straka7300.003.60.67
Beau Hossler7300.003.30.62
Austin Cook7300.002.00.59
Johnson Wagner7200.0011.00.71
Doc Redman7200.005.10.73
Shawn Stefani7200.001.80.69
Brice Garnett7200.001.20.63
Carlos Ortiz7200.001.10.66
Hank Lebioda7100.0012.00.74
Roger Sloan7100.005.00.65
Russell Henley7100.002.80.59
Matt Jones7100.001.50.72
Andrew Landry7100.001.20.60
Jonathan Byrd7100.000.80.64
Michael Thompson7000.004.30.75
Andres Romero7000.002.40.59
Scott Stallings7000.001.70.64
Luke Donald7000.001.70.59
Adam Long7000.001.50.66
Kyoung-Hoon Lee7000.000.90.68
Robert Streb6900.002.60.60
Matt Every6900.001.90.70
Peter Uihlein6900.001.70.62
Zack Sucher6900.001.10.58
Kramer Hickok6900.000.90.63
David Hearn6900.000.80.59
Bill Haas6900.000.70.57
Sebastian Munoz6800.001.80.73
Stephan Jaeger6800.001.60.66
Trey Mullinax6800.001.40.65
Seamus Power6800.001.30.49
Wes Roach6800.000.90.65
Adam Schenk6800.000.80.65
Roberto Diaz6800.000.70.67
Adam Svensson6700.005.90.64
Dominic Bozzelli6700.002.70.61
Josh Teater6700.002.30.66
Curtis Luck6700.001.70.55
Roberto Castro6700.001.50.54
Fabian Gomez6700.001.50.54
Alex Prugh6700.000.80.64
Cameron Davis6700.000.80.59
Tom Hoge6600.002.30.60
Stewart Cink6600.001.60.67
Ted Potter Jr.6600.000.90.45
Chris Stroud6600.000.90.53
Ollie Schniederjans6600.000.80.54
Ryan Blaum6600.000.70.61
Tyler Duncan6600.000.70.60
Brandon Harkins6600.000.70.55
D.J. Trahan6500.001.20.71
Sam Saunders6500.001.20.55
Chad Campbell6500.001.20.46
John Catlin6500.001.00.46
Justin Suh6500.000.70.63
Ben Crane6500.000.70.58
Ben Silverman6500.000.10.58
Jim Knous6500.000.10.60
Martin Piller6500.000.10.56
Alex Cejka6500.000.10.45
Michael Kim6400.002.20.46
Chase Wright6400.001.40.61
Richy Werenski6400.001.30.50
Arjun Atwal6400.001.30.49
David Lingmerth6400.000.70.63
Scott Langley6400.000.70.50
Anirban Lahiri6400.000.70.49
Brendon Todd6400.000.10.49
Sang-Moon Bae6400.000.10.49
Tyrone Van Aswegen6300.002.30.52
Robert Garrigus6300.002.30.50
Satoshi Kodaira6300.000.90.29
Whee Kim6300.000.80.32
Derek Fathauer6300.000.70.46
Kelly Kraft6300.000.70.44
Julian Etulain6300.000.10.54
Cody Gribble6300.000.10.51
Anders Albertson6300.000.10.48
Boo Weekley6200.001.40.62
Austin Connelly6200.001.10.12
Billy Hurley6200.000.70.46
Tom Lovelady6200.000.70.46
Smylie Kaufman6200.000.70.00
George McNeill6200.000.10.57
John Senden6200.000.10.49
J.J. Henry6200.000.10.46
Chris Thompson6200.000.10.46
Jose De Jesus Rodriguez6200.000.10.46
Nicholas Lindheim6100.000.10.58
Ricky Barnes6100.000.10.56
Parker McLachlin6100.000.10.50
Hunter Mahan6100.000.10.49
Austen Truslow6100.000.10.46
Brady Schnell6100.000.10.45
Seth Reeves6100.000.10.44
Will Claxton6100.000.10.39
Daniel Chopra6100.000.10.39
Kris Blanks6100.000.10.34
John Chin6100.000.10.33
Dylan Meyer6000.001.10.59
Steve Allan6000.000.20.29
Chad Collins6000.000.20.50
Fredrik Jacobson6000.000.20.48
Kyle Jones6000.000.20.47
Jim Herman6000.000.20.45
Tim Herron6000.000.20.44
Martin Trainer6000.000.20.43
Chris Couch6000.000.10.51
Dicky Pride6000.000.10.48
Brian Davis6000.000.10.47
Darin Fisher6000.000.10.29
Ryan Vermeer6000.000.00.38
Image Credit: Fred Kfoury III/Icon Sportswire. Pictured: Zach Johnson.

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