After a few weeks with debut courses on Tour we’re back with a familiar venue in TPC Deere Run. We’re looking at a 7,100-yard par-71 course out in Illinois for the John Deere Classic as our last stop before The Open Championship. The course features bentgrass greens that are around tour average at 6,000 square feet. The course is dotted with 78 bunkers and four water hazards. For more about the course, head over to yesterday’s article.
Checking the Chalk
The trio of golfers all the way at the top of the field have a combined age of 63 years old. Viktor Hovland ($10,900), Collin Morikawa ($10,700), and Matthew Wolff ($10,500) are the most expensive golfers in the field this week. From a recent form perspective and a raw talent perspective, it’s hard to argue against any of these guys. All Hovland has done is set the US Open amateur scoring record and make four straight cuts since the start of June. Six of his past eight rounds have been in the 60s. His other two rounds? 70 exactly. Morikawa was a lip-out away from a playoff last week with eventual winner Wolff. These guys are young, and they are good. Morikawa is at the top of the heap in my pricing model with an expected $11,700 price tag.
Joaquin Niemann ($10,200) might seem like the forgotten man here in his second year but he’s being talked up plenty and could be the highest owned of these young guys this week. Over his past four events, Niemann has hit at least two-thirds of his GIR in every start, including two straight events over 80% now. Out of those 16 rounds, 12 have wound up in the 60s.
Zach Johnson ($9,600) is the course history darling. Dating back to 2012, he has made every cut in his seven tries and has a victory to go along with four other top-5 finishes in that span. He’s been so-so lately, though, as he hasn’t hit more than 60% of his greens in regulation since the Wells Fargo back in the first week of May. From a fit perspective, he obviously makes sense here but the fact that he hasn’t finished in the DK bonus since April is concerning.
Sungjae Im ($9,700) has been all that was advertised, as well, through the start of the 2019 season. He’s had his share of ups and downs but he has strung five straight cuts together including finishes inside of the top 21. In each of his past four starts, he’s been scoring well. Im has had at least three rounds in the 60s over that span. He’s a great upside play this week if he can continue to string birdies together like that. My pricing model has Im at $10,000 so we are getting a fair bit of value here.
We might be staying on him too long, but Cameron Tringale ($7,700) makes sense again this week. He has continued his solid tee-to-green game, gaining an average of 2.74 strokes in that category over his past five starts. That’s more than 3 strokes better than his average in our database.
Peter Malnati ($7,900) is another interesting play this week. Malnati has made a half dozen straight cuts now and has hit over 60% of GIR over that span. During that span, he’s gaining 2.5 strokes tee-to-green compared to his average of -1.78 in his previous 117 events in our database. That’s been accompanied by hitting an average of an extra 1.5 greens per round.
So far this season, the totals for the cash locks are 45/50 (90%) made cuts, 34/50 (68%) top 30s, and 15/50 (30%) top 10s. Here are this week’s cash locks:
- Collin Morikawa ($10,700)
- Sungjae Im ($9,700)
Ownership Projections and Model Results - John Deere ClassicFinal run of ownership projections
|Charles Howell III||9500.00||11.1||0.80|
|Harold Varner III||7400.00||9.6||0.68|
|Ted Potter Jr.||6600.00||0.9||0.45|
|Tyrone Van Aswegen||6300.00||2.3||0.52|
|Jose De Jesus Rodriguez||6200.00||0.1||0.46|
Image Credit: Fred Kfoury III/Icon Sportswire. Pictured: Zach Johnson.
NFL subscribers, the time to get into PGA DFS is now! For a limited time, upgrade your subscription by adding a 2019 Rest of Season PGA subscription at a $10 discount. Click here for details!