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What If We’re Right? 4 Holds Move to Sells and 1 Becomes a Buy

Back in June I started a series looking at the dynasty value the WRs we had ranked in the top 40 for 2019 redraft leagues. The idea behind this analysis is to imagine that our redraft ranking is exactly correct, and then consider how this finish is likely to affect the WR’s dynasty value in 2020.

Here are the original articles:

But a lot has changed since June, shifting our redraft rankings and the dynasty ADP. So to help you pull off some last-minute trades before the season I’m revisiting the analysis with the newest data in hand.

The players below were originally designated as high risk holds — meaning they should only be held by strong contenders or by those confident their RV rank is too low.

PlayerRV Redraft WR (June)FFPC Dynasty WR (June)RV Redraft WR (Current)FFPC Dynasty WR (Current)
Julio Jones6757
Adam Thielen12121213
TY Hilton13151918
Julian Edelman20302425
Sammy Watkins24243338
Chris Godwin26182515
Mike Williams28252623
Robby Anderson30403033
Alshon Jeffery31383236
Larry Fitzgerald37603751

Julio Jones

Jones is in the exact same position as a month ago. He remains a priority redraft target but has substantially more downside risk in dynasty. He’s a contending team only play. With everyone currently in peak redraft mode, he should be fairly easy to sell if your 2019 prospects are looking shaky.

  • Previous Designation
    • High-Risk Hold
  • New Designation
    • High-Risk Hold

Adam Thielen

Same story for Thielen as Jones. This is a good sell window if you’re not contending, but a WR12 season is hard to pass on if you’re in the hunt for a title.

  • Previous Designation:
    • High-Risk Hold
  • New Designation
    • High-Risk Hold

T.Y. Hilton

Hilton owners are in a tough spot because although his dynasty ADP has remained fairly high at WR18, there will be owners in each league who want nothing to do with him. As someone who spent the offseason trying and failing to unload Kenyan Drake, all the while seeing him go in the 6th round of startups, I sympathize.1

But Hilton is someone that you should be shopping aggressively. The case for keeping him has been hit from two sides by Andrew Luck’s retirement. First, he’s likely to be significantly less productive, with redraft ranking now WR19, down from WR13. And second, the floor he once had by being Luck’s WR1 has been removed.

A 30-year-old Hilton coming off a WR19 season with Jacoby Brissett is not going to be a top-20 dynasty WR. With that finish he’d more likely be in the back end of the top 30. And the downside risk he faces from under-performing his 2019 rank is now much greater than before.

The only reason to hold Hilton at this point is if every single owner in your league has rejected your offers.

  • Previous Designation:
    • High-Risk Hold
  • New Designation
    • Strong Sell

Chris Godwin

My high stakes co-manager and podcast co-host Peter Overzet recently dealt Godwin straight up for D.J. Moore. That’s our 22nd-ranked dynasty WR straight up for our 12th-ranked dynasty WR.

Yea.

That’s the kind of value we’re talking about here.

Want one more? Hasan Rahim recently sold Godwin for Christian Kirk (28th ranked WR) and Robby Anderson (30th ranked WR).

Meanwhile, it’s important to keep in mind that Godwin’s hype hasn’t just increased his price, it’s also amplified his downside risk in dynasty. What might have once been considered a simply a failed third year breakout, will now go down as one of the biggest busts by a “sleeper” in recent memory. Drafters taking him in the 3rd round in high stakes leagues are not expecting a WR25 finish… but that’s where our rankers have him. Some of Godwin’s redraft owners are in your league, and may feel quite differently about him if we he posts a season outside the top 24.

Godwin’s WR15 dynasty ADP is breakout or bust–and there’s no reason to ever put yourself in a position where a premium WR asset has to outperform expectations in order to avoid a dramatic loss in value.

It’s time to cash out.

  • Previous Designation:
    • High-Risk Hold
  • New Designation
    • Strong Sell

Julian Edelman

In the early summer Edelman was a heavily discounted way to acquire a top-20 WR. But we’ve since lowered our expectations to WR24, following his injury struggles and Josh Gordon‘s return. But that’s ok because … hang on … what!? his price has risen by five WR spots?

No thank you.

Edelman was originally an interesting play for contenders, but now I would suggest even the contenders start shopping him. I mean, he’s being drafted between Tyler Boyd and Christian Kirk. At these prices, why not move to a WR who can produce and who isn’t 33 years old, already working through multiple injury scares, and facing a potential target squeeze.

  • Previous Designation:
    • High-Risk Hold
  • New Designation
    • Strong Sell

Sammy Watkins

When I wrote up Watkins in June the assumption was that Tyreek Hill was likely to miss the entire season. Watkins’ redraft ranking and dynasty ADP both reflected cautious optimism for this result, with each at WR24. Now however, Watkins value and 2019 outlook have declined.

As dynasty’s WR38, but our rankers WR33, Watkins now provides a discounted way to add 2019 production. And as a 26-year old entering his second season with Patrick Mahomes, Watkins has an attractive ceiling, both from a 2019 standpoint and for the purposes of his dynasty value.

There is one major red flag for Watkins however, he’s only signed with the Chiefs through 2020 and is a potential cut candidate next off-season, as he would save the Chiefs $14MM against the 2020 cap.

Watkins at this point fits into the “red-flag buy” designation from the original article series, although the red flag is an extreme one. If Watkins is cut from the Chiefs in the offseason we could see his dynasty ADP in absolute free fall. So be prepared to lose the value of whatever you pay for him. But at WR38 prices, the risk/reward profile for a high pedigree 26 year-old, locked into targets from Patrick Mahomes is too juicy to pass up. Be cautious about over-paying, and be aware of what you’re getting into, but make sure to check in with Watkins’ owner before the season starts.

  • Previous Designation:
    • High-Risk Hold
  • New Designation
    • Red-Flag Buy

Mike Williams

Our rankers are a bit more bullish on Williams than they were in June, ranking him WR26 up from WR28. However, this finish would still represent a failed third-year breakout for Williams and would likely put his ADP just outside of the top-30 WRs. Because Williams’ ADP has also risen with his outlook (now sitting at WR23), this is an even better time to sell. The only reason to hold Williams is if you’re betting big on a breakout season. Shawn Siegele recently provided some optimism for this outcome.

  • Previous Designation:
    • High-Risk Hold
  • New Designation
    • High-Risk Hold

Robby Anderson

Anderson, like Williams, is a breakout-bet play with a low floor. But his floor is much, much lower. As a low pedigree player, Anderson’s value could evaporate if the Jets bring in major free agent or draft additions in 2020. That of course assumes Anderson is brought back at all. He’s currently on a one-year deal with the Jets.

In addition, although his WR30 redraft rank hasn’t changed since June, his price has risen up to WR33. So while there’s certainly upside here, Anderson is now valuable enough that you should be shopping him aggressively before the season.

  • Previous Designation:
    • High-Risk Hold
  • New Designation
    • Strong Sell

Alshon Jeffery

Jeffery’s rank has fallen from WR31 to WR32 and his price has risen from WR 38 to WR36. I’m leaving Jeffery as a high risk hold, but just barely. He’s more likely to return to the Eagles after a WR32 season than Anderson is to return to the Jets after a WR30 season for example–as Jeffery has to be cut by the Eagles whereas Anderson can simply be allowed to hit Free Agency. But he should only be owned by teams in strong contention and thin at the WR position.

  • Previous Designation:
    • High-Risk Hold
  • New Designation
    • High-Risk Hold

Larry Fitzgerald

Fitzgerald’s 2019 outlook remains unchanged from June. He is still our 37th ranked WR. But his price has risen a bit to WR51. However, in that range that value difference is pretty negligible. The fundamental calculation on Fitzgerald remains the same. He is a cheap way to add depth for title contenders at a price that reflects his total lack of long-term value. He’s by far my favorite play of the cheap old guys here (Fitzgerald, Edelman and Jeffery) now that Edelman’s price/production profile has shifted.

  • Previous Designation:
    • High-Risk Hold
  • New Designation
    • High-Risk Hold
Image Credit: Jeffrey Brown/Icon Sportswire. Pictured: T.Y. Hilton.

  1. Last week I was finally able to trade Drake and a late first for Curtis Samuel, Drew Brees and an early third.  (back)

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