Patrick Kerrane

Dynasty writer and High Stakes player. Finished 6th of 696 dynasty teams in DFWC 2018; 34th in DFWC 2017. Producer of the Fantasyland Podcast. Co-host of 4for4's 'Ship Chasing podcast.

Author Archive

In-Season Articles

In-Season Articles

The FFPC Playoff Challenge: Chalk Plays, Pivots and Ownership Projections

The FFPC Playoff Challenge is a contest playoff tournament with 6,500 teams and over $1.1 million in prizes and a $500,000 grand prize. The rules of the contest are simple — as you can see in Hasan Rahim’s 2018 write up: There is no draft, each owner simply selects a roster of 10 players (1-QB, 2-RB, 2-WR, 1-TE, 2-Flex, 1-K, 1-D; Flex can be RB, WR or TE) with the caveat being that you may only select one player from each team. This team is your roster for the entire duration of the playoffs. No add/drops, no setting line-ups. The only

Curtis Samuel is Either Really Bad or About to Explode

If you checked out my article on Terry McLaurin a few weeks ago (and by the way, this is the perfect time to be sending offers for the breakout deep threat), you’ll remember I discussed the idea of aDOT adjusted RACR as part of my profile on McLaurin. If not, here’s a brief refresher. Receiver air conversion rate (RACR), a metric created by Josh Hermsmeyer, measures the percentage of air yards that a WR converts into receiving yards. RACR is partially driven by player skill, rewarding players with high catch rates and/or YAC ability, but as you can see below,

Where Did Terry McLaurin Come From and What Is He Worth?

Terry McLaurin is one of the hottest names in dynasty. After starting his career at an Odell Beckham like pace, his trade value has skyrocketed. McLaurin was an under-hyped third-round rookie, so I want to add some context to his production to help assess his dynasty value. Below is a review of McLaurin’s fantasy performance, prospect profile, and finally, how to approach his dynasty value. Current Performance McLaurin burst onto the scene in Week 1 with 7 targets for 5 receptions, 125 yards and a TD, and hasn’t let up since.   He is now PPR WR14 and WR5 in

Chris Godwin is So Hot Right Now

Chris Godwin is running extremely hot. He leads all WRs in fantasy points over expectation (FPOE) and is second in FPOE per game. He’s first in PPR per game among WRs, but just 11th in expected (EP) points per game. As you can see above, Godwin’s WOPR — his weighted market share of the passing offense — ranks just 24th among WRs. This highlights two red flags for Godwin: Godwin is still the second option in his offense. Mike Evans has the 10th ranked WOPR (0.62) and has seen 192 more air yards than Godwin on the same number of targets.

The Buying Window on David Montgomery is Open

Off-Season Darling In FFPC startups immediately following the NFL draft, David Montgomery was typically drafted in the fifth round, and sometime fell as far as the late sixth. In rookie drafts he was consistently taken in the early-to-mid first, foreshadowing the enthusiasm that would eventually drive up his ADP in startups. By the end of the summer Montgomery was a staple of the dynasty top 40, sometimes being selected as an early third rounder. This price increase was driven by consistent training camp buzz with the Bears literally professing their love for their third round rookie. Growing Pains Then Week

Dalvin Cook’s Dynasty Value Continues to Skyrocket

Two weeks ago I wrote up Dalvin Cook as a dynasty sell. My argument boiled down to the following three points: His offense limits his PPR value. His 2019 production has been driven by efficiency, not workload. The enthusiasm for Cook means that when shopping him even the most coveted players in dynasty are on the table. Today I want to revisit Cook, because the situation has markedly changed — but not in the way I anticipated. Expanding Workload Over the last two weeks, Cook’s wildly unsustainable efficiency has finally come back to earth. When profiling Cook as a sell,

Sell Dalvin Cook Before His Dynasty Price Corrects

Dalvin Cook has had himself quite a start to the season. He’s the No. 2 RB in PPR points and leads the league in rushing. These results are seen as proof that he’s this year’s Christian McCaffrey, ie. an immensely talented RB who’s finally become an elite workhorse. But while Cook is undoubtedly a special talent, he’s one of the easiest sells in fantasy at his current price. This article will focus primarily on dynasty, but I believe Cook is also a sell in redraft. The Wrong Profile If we’re saying that Cook has vaulted into the elite RB tier,

Your Dynasty Gameplan for the NFL’s Leading WRs: Sammy Watkins and John Ross

Every year I try and remind myself that the NFL season is a chaotic swirl of colors, injuries and the unbelievable. And then I try to predict it anyway. But then Sammy Watkins and John Ross combine for over 171 points in the first two weeks of the season. And chaos swirls on. Let’s try and make sense of the madness for your dynasty teams anyway. Starting with the WR points leader and the guy who we could have maybe seen coming. Sammy Watkins   Age 26.26 UFA Year if Cut 2020 UFA Full Contract 2021 Final RV Redraft Rank

It’s Time to Flip Marlon Mack; Plus 6 Other Dynasty RB Takeaways from Week 1

Week 1 provides a huge influx of extremely valuable information to fantasy owners. But that information is also filled with noise. Using the RotoViz Screener and NFL Stat Explorer, I’m cutting through the noise to deliver dynasty advice on seven RBs.1 As a quick refresher, EP stands for Expected Points (PPR), and is calculated using the line of scrimmage for each carry or target a player received. FPOE stands for Fantasy Points over Expectation, and is a measure of player efficiency. As workload is generally stickier than efficiency, we want to identify situations where player value may be out of

Updating Our Buy/Sell Advice for the 6 Strongest Dynasty WR Buys of the Summer

Back in June I started a series looking at the dynasty value for top-40 wide receivers in our 2019 RotoViz redraft rankings. The idea behind this analysis is to imagine that our redraft rankings are exactly correct, and then consider how each WR’s projected finish is likely to affect his dynasty value in 2020. Here are the original articles: Part 1: Strong Sells at WR Part 2: High Risk Holds at WR Part 3: Safe Hold at WR Part 4: Red Flag Buys at WR Part 5: Strong Buys at WR But a lot has changed since June, shifting our

The FFPC Playoff Challenge: Chalk Plays, Pivots and Ownership Projections

The FFPC Playoff Challenge is a contest playoff tournament with 6,500 teams and over $1.1 million in prizes and a $500,000 grand prize. The rules of the contest are simple — as you can see in Hasan Rahim’s 2018 write up: There is no draft, each owner simply selects a roster of 10 players (1-QB, 2-RB, 2-WR, 1-TE, 2-Flex, 1-K, 1-D; Flex can be RB, WR or TE) with the caveat being that you may only select one player from each team. This team is your roster for the entire duration of the playoffs. No add/drops, no setting line-ups. The only

Curtis Samuel is Either Really Bad or About to Explode

If you checked out my article on Terry McLaurin a few weeks ago (and by the way, this is the perfect time to be sending offers for the breakout deep threat), you’ll remember I discussed the idea of aDOT adjusted RACR as part of my profile on McLaurin. If not, here’s a brief refresher. Receiver air conversion rate (RACR), a metric created by Josh Hermsmeyer, measures the percentage of air yards that a WR converts into receiving yards. RACR is partially driven by player skill, rewarding players with high catch rates and/or YAC ability, but as you can see below,

Where Did Terry McLaurin Come From and What Is He Worth?

Terry McLaurin is one of the hottest names in dynasty. After starting his career at an Odell Beckham like pace, his trade value has skyrocketed. McLaurin was an under-hyped third-round rookie, so I want to add some context to his production to help assess his dynasty value. Below is a review of McLaurin’s fantasy performance, prospect profile, and finally, how to approach his dynasty value. Current Performance McLaurin burst onto the scene in Week 1 with 7 targets for 5 receptions, 125 yards and a TD, and hasn’t let up since.   He is now PPR WR14 and WR5 in

Chris Godwin is So Hot Right Now

Chris Godwin is running extremely hot. He leads all WRs in fantasy points over expectation (FPOE) and is second in FPOE per game. He’s first in PPR per game among WRs, but just 11th in expected (EP) points per game. As you can see above, Godwin’s WOPR — his weighted market share of the passing offense — ranks just 24th among WRs. This highlights two red flags for Godwin: Godwin is still the second option in his offense. Mike Evans has the 10th ranked WOPR (0.62) and has seen 192 more air yards than Godwin on the same number of targets.

The Buying Window on David Montgomery is Open

Off-Season Darling In FFPC startups immediately following the NFL draft, David Montgomery was typically drafted in the fifth round, and sometime fell as far as the late sixth. In rookie drafts he was consistently taken in the early-to-mid first, foreshadowing the enthusiasm that would eventually drive up his ADP in startups. By the end of the summer Montgomery was a staple of the dynasty top 40, sometimes being selected as an early third rounder. This price increase was driven by consistent training camp buzz with the Bears literally professing their love for their third round rookie. Growing Pains Then Week

Dalvin Cook’s Dynasty Value Continues to Skyrocket

Two weeks ago I wrote up Dalvin Cook as a dynasty sell. My argument boiled down to the following three points: His offense limits his PPR value. His 2019 production has been driven by efficiency, not workload. The enthusiasm for Cook means that when shopping him even the most coveted players in dynasty are on the table. Today I want to revisit Cook, because the situation has markedly changed — but not in the way I anticipated. Expanding Workload Over the last two weeks, Cook’s wildly unsustainable efficiency has finally come back to earth. When profiling Cook as a sell,

Sell Dalvin Cook Before His Dynasty Price Corrects

Dalvin Cook has had himself quite a start to the season. He’s the No. 2 RB in PPR points and leads the league in rushing. These results are seen as proof that he’s this year’s Christian McCaffrey, ie. an immensely talented RB who’s finally become an elite workhorse. But while Cook is undoubtedly a special talent, he’s one of the easiest sells in fantasy at his current price. This article will focus primarily on dynasty, but I believe Cook is also a sell in redraft. The Wrong Profile If we’re saying that Cook has vaulted into the elite RB tier,

Your Dynasty Gameplan for the NFL’s Leading WRs: Sammy Watkins and John Ross

Every year I try and remind myself that the NFL season is a chaotic swirl of colors, injuries and the unbelievable. And then I try to predict it anyway. But then Sammy Watkins and John Ross combine for over 171 points in the first two weeks of the season. And chaos swirls on. Let’s try and make sense of the madness for your dynasty teams anyway. Starting with the WR points leader and the guy who we could have maybe seen coming. Sammy Watkins   Age 26.26 UFA Year if Cut 2020 UFA Full Contract 2021 Final RV Redraft Rank

It’s Time to Flip Marlon Mack; Plus 6 Other Dynasty RB Takeaways from Week 1

Week 1 provides a huge influx of extremely valuable information to fantasy owners. But that information is also filled with noise. Using the RotoViz Screener and NFL Stat Explorer, I’m cutting through the noise to deliver dynasty advice on seven RBs.1 As a quick refresher, EP stands for Expected Points (PPR), and is calculated using the line of scrimmage for each carry or target a player received. FPOE stands for Fantasy Points over Expectation, and is a measure of player efficiency. As workload is generally stickier than efficiency, we want to identify situations where player value may be out of

Updating Our Buy/Sell Advice for the 6 Strongest Dynasty WR Buys of the Summer

Back in June I started a series looking at the dynasty value for top-40 wide receivers in our 2019 RotoViz redraft rankings. The idea behind this analysis is to imagine that our redraft rankings are exactly correct, and then consider how each WR’s projected finish is likely to affect his dynasty value in 2020. Here are the original articles: Part 1: Strong Sells at WR Part 2: High Risk Holds at WR Part 3: Safe Hold at WR Part 4: Red Flag Buys at WR Part 5: Strong Buys at WR But a lot has changed since June, shifting our

The FFPC Playoff Challenge: Chalk Plays, Pivots and Ownership Projections

The FFPC Playoff Challenge is a contest playoff tournament with 6,500 teams and over $1.1 million in prizes and a $500,000 grand prize. The rules of the contest are simple — as you can see in Hasan Rahim’s 2018 write up: There is no draft, each owner simply selects a roster

Curtis Samuel is Either Really Bad or About to Explode

If you checked out my article on Terry McLaurin a few weeks ago (and by the way, this is the perfect time to be sending offers for the breakout deep threat), you’ll remember I discussed the idea of aDOT adjusted RACR as part of my profile on McLaurin. If not,

Where Did Terry McLaurin Come From and What Is He Worth?

Terry McLaurin is one of the hottest names in dynasty. After starting his career at an Odell Beckham like pace, his trade value has skyrocketed. McLaurin was an under-hyped third-round rookie, so I want to add some context to his production to help assess his dynasty value. Below is a

Chris Godwin is So Hot Right Now

Chris Godwin is running extremely hot. He leads all WRs in fantasy points over expectation (FPOE) and is second in FPOE per game. He’s first in PPR per game among WRs, but just 11th in expected (EP) points per game. As you can see above, Godwin’s WOPR — his weighted market

The Buying Window on David Montgomery is Open

Off-Season Darling In FFPC startups immediately following the NFL draft, David Montgomery was typically drafted in the fifth round, and sometime fell as far as the late sixth. In rookie drafts he was consistently taken in the early-to-mid first, foreshadowing the enthusiasm that would eventually drive up his ADP in

Dalvin Cook’s Dynasty Value Continues to Skyrocket

Two weeks ago I wrote up Dalvin Cook as a dynasty sell. My argument boiled down to the following three points: His offense limits his PPR value. His 2019 production has been driven by efficiency, not workload. The enthusiasm for Cook means that when shopping him even the most coveted

Sell Dalvin Cook Before His Dynasty Price Corrects

Dalvin Cook has had himself quite a start to the season. He’s the No. 2 RB in PPR points and leads the league in rushing. These results are seen as proof that he’s this year’s Christian McCaffrey, ie. an immensely talented RB who’s finally become an elite workhorse. But while

It’s Time to Flip Marlon Mack; Plus 6 Other Dynasty RB Takeaways from Week 1

Week 1 provides a huge influx of extremely valuable information to fantasy owners. But that information is also filled with noise. Using the RotoViz Screener and NFL Stat Explorer, I’m cutting through the noise to deliver dynasty advice on seven RBs.1 As a quick refresher, EP stands for Expected Points

Updating Our Buy/Sell Advice for the 6 Strongest Dynasty WR Buys of the Summer

Back in June I started a series looking at the dynasty value for top-40 wide receivers in our 2019 RotoViz redraft rankings. The idea behind this analysis is to imagine that our redraft rankings are exactly correct, and then consider how each WR’s projected finish is likely to affect his

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