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What If We’re Right? 1 Safe Hold Becomes a Buy Low

Back in June I started a series looking at the dynasty value the WRs we had ranked in the top 40 for 2019 redraft leagues. The idea behind this analysis is to imagine that our redraft ranking is exactly correct, and then consider how this finish is likely to affect the WR’s dynasty value in 2020.

Here are the original articles:

But a lot has changed since June, shifting our redraft rankings and the dynasty ADP. So to help you pull off some last-minute trades before the season I’m revisiting the analysis with the newest data in hand.

The players below were originally safe holds.

PlayerRV Redraft WR (June)FFPC Dynasty WR (June)RV Redraft WR (Current)FFPC Dynasty WR (Current)
DeAndre Hopkins1111
Davante Adams4344
Keenan Allen119109
Brandin Cooks14131314
N'Keal Harry35206839

DeAndre Hopkins

Hopkins made it through the pre-season unscathed and is the consensus WR1 in redraft and dynasty.

As the top player in his position, he could return a huge haul in a trade. So for teams in rebuilding mode, it’s worth seeing what he could bring back. But otherwise, Hopkins is an excellent mix of production and safety.

  • Previous Designation
    • Safe Hold
  • New Designation
    • Safe Hold

Davante Adams

Adams’ price has fallen slightly, but his redraft ranking remains the same at WR4. His redraft ADP is typically WR2, so we’re also a bit lower than consensus. Even still, a WR4 finish should keep Adams in the first round of startups and he remains a safe way to bank big-time production. But make sure to check with the Juju Smith-Shuster owner to see if you can pull off an even swap for the third year phenom.

  • Previous Designation
    • Safe Hold
  • New Designation
    • Safe Hold

Keenan Allen

Allen’s price has been steady all summer, and we like his 2019 outlook with a WR10 ranking. A WR10 finish will likely keep Allen’s ADP in the late second round of startups, but won’t be enough to push him up to the early second due to his age (28 for the 2020 season). He remains a safe low-end WR1.

  • Previous Designation
    • Safe Hold
  • New Designation
    • Safe Hold

Brandin Cooks

Cooks has also been very steady this summer and the calculation on him remains the same. He remains very safe at 26 (in a month) and on a long term contract with the Rams. But he doesn’t have a lot of value upside with a finish outside of the top 10. Cooks will need a season that breaks the perception of him as a perennial WR2 for him to move up into the late-second-round range (or higher). Still, he’s a very safe way to play the position.

  • Previous Designation
    • Safe Hold
  • New Designation
    • Safe Hold

N’Keal Harry

When I wrote up Harry in June he was dynasty’s WR20. Things have changed.

Harry, now on Injured Reserve, is going as WR39. And his true value is likely lower than that. The drafts I’m looking at date back to 8/15, and Harry was placed on IR just a day ago.

Assuming his trade value is more reflective of WR40-WR45 prices, Harry has become a bargain. A rough pre-season and the specter of a lost rookie year has owners rightly spooked. But it’s important to note that Harry was placed on IR Designated to Return. He can begin practicing after Week 6 and can return to play in Week 9. When he does return, he could be an immediate factor as a fantastic prospect who had the potential for a huge season prior to his injury.

We can’t ignore that he was having trouble solidifying a role prior to his injury and that’s he’s now on IR. Those are significant red flags. But what you’ll likely have to pay in a trade is low enough to make him a buy. As a high pedigree rookie, he only needs to flash potential to be in the top 35 WRs once again next off-season.

One caveat with Harry is that without fresh startup ADP it may take a few weeks for Harry’s perceived value to fall into the WR40-45 range. I wouldn’t necessarily rush acquiring him if his owner is a believer. You may be able to more easily target him in the early weeks of the season when immediate production may become a priority for his owner with Harry’s Week 9 return feeling like a lifetime away.

  • Previous Designation
    • Safe Hold
  • New Designation
    • Red-Flag Buy
Image Credit: Leslie Plaza Johnson/Icon Sports. Pictured: DeAndre Hopkins.

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