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When The Devy Breaks: The Buy-Low Window On Tyler Johnson Is Opening

Welcome back to another edition of When The Devy Breaks, an article series providing advice and observations geared toward improving your devy league rosters. Week 2 of the college football season is in the books and we’ve got a lot to discuss, so let’s get to it.

Stock Up

Cam Akers, RB, Florida State

Akers is already a top-10 devy pick per Devy Watch ADP. But his performance last week against Louisiana-Monroe really solidifies this position. The 5-foot-11-inch, 212-pound junior was a workhorse for the Seminoles on the ground (36-193-2) while also finishing second on the team in receiving yards (5-55-1). Akers is young (20.2), athletic (141.33 SPARQ score in high school), and an accomplished receiver. In any other class he’d be the RB1. I’m more than happy to take the discount if he gets pushed down next spring.

Bryan Edwards, WR, South Carolina

Edwards has posted Dominator Ratings of 0.28, 0.28, and 0.23 over the last three seasons catching passes primarily from Jake Bentley. His 5-112-2 line against Charleston Southern with freshman QB Ryan Hilinski at the helm is encouraging. The Gamecocks’ schedule is brutal with matchups against Alabama, Georgia, and Florida on deck, so we’ll see if this connection is sustainable. But at just 20 years old in his senior season, Edwards is uniquely positioned to check a bunch of boxes if he crosses our preferred 0.30 DR this season.

Tylan Wallace, WR, Oklahoma State

Wallace easily broke out last season as a sophomore (0.36 DR) and shows no signs of slowing down. In two games this season, the 6-foot, 185-pound junior has five touchdowns on just 10 receptions, accounting for 53% of the Cowboys’ receiving production. Currently being drafted as the WR9 in the 2020 WR class, he still might be undervalued based on his dynamic big-play ability. A road matchup with Texas in two weeks will be a terrific barometer.

Stock Down

Shea Patterson, QB, Michigan

Patterson was supposed to be a major beneficiary following the arrival of new offensive coordinator Josh Gattis. But through two games against mediocre competition, the results are somewhat troubling. His passing numbers are fine1 but poor ball security has been a major red flag. At 2-0 it’s unlikely we see a QB change barring an injury. But with highly-touted sophomore Dylan McCaffrey waiting in the wings, it’s a situation worth monitoring.

Spencer Brown, RB, UAB

Brown’s elite first-year production had him squarely on my radar. But after starting 2019 averaging just 2.9 yards per carry against Alabama State and Akron, I’m genuinely concerned. Add in the fact he has just 12 career receptions in 29 games and he’s looking more and more like a two-down grinder at best. We’ve seen higher-profile prospects like Jonathan Taylor, Travis Etienne, and AJ Dillon become more involved as receivers in 2019. And there’s still a chance that happens for Brown. But if not, he’s likely best left alone in devy leagues.

Ask An Expert

For this section I tapped one of my co-hosts from the RotoViz College Football Podcast, Matt Wispe. We started off discussing the 2020 RB class:

Next we moved to the 2020 QB class, and more specifically the hottest ticket in town, Joe Burrow:

And finally, we turned quickly to the 2021 WR class:

Trade Target Of The Week

Tyler Johnson, WR, Minnesota

I’ll be honest, Johnson is off to a pretty terrible start to the 2019 season. His teammate Rashod Bateman has dominated the Gophers’ receiving production with Johnson posting a measly 3-28-0 line. But this could be the perfect time to contact the Johnson-owner in your league and do a quick panic check. As a prospect, Johnson checks both the production and breakout age boxes, and despite being a senior, he’s still only 21 years old. If he ends up a top-100 draft pick next spring, he’ll have a terrific shot at paying off. Now might be the best time to buy-low before his college eligibility runs out.

Image Credit: David Berding/Icon Sportswire. Pictured: Tyler Johnson.

  1. 62% completion, 8.1 adjusted yards per attempt, and a 138.5 passer rating  (back)

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