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DK Buffet Week 7: Key Stats and Trends for the Main Slate on DraftKings

When I’m looking into the DFS slate each week, I like to go game by game and identify players or situations that intrigue me. In every game, on every team, there’s a situation that’s relevant for DFS purposes, for either a positive or negative reason. These situations inform us of how we should be attacking each slate.

Arizona Cardinals

Spread: +3 @ New York Giants  | Total: 49.5

If you haven’t been on the Kyler Murray ($6,700) train all along, it’s time to buy a ticket and hop on. The Cardinals scored touchdowns last week! It was a small miracle, and yes it was against the Falcons woeful defense … but the Giants aren’t exactly the 1985 Bears. Kyler hit the 300 yard bonus for the first time in a few weeks and threw for three TDs for the first time in his career.  The spike in rushing EP has given him one of the safest floors in the league. You don’t need to worry about play volume or pace in this game, either. The Cardinals have the second-highest pace in one-score games1 and the Giants are 12th in that category.2 Murray has only had one game under 19 DK points and should at least be in your GPP portfolio.

Atlanta Falcons

Spread: +3 vs Los Angeles Rams | Total: 54.5

The next time Matt Ryan ($6,300) doesn’t hit the 300-yard bonus on DraftKings this season will be the first. The Falcons are tied for the highest number of passes per 60 minutes. He has been a QB1 for five straight weeks and shows no signs of slowing down.  It’s hard to imagine a scenario where he creeps above this price, too. He’ll likely be in play every week that the Falcons are available on a slate. Also, Austin Hooper ($5,300) is not a result of the “flow chart,” he’s matchup proof and should be in your builds every week.

Baltimore Ravens

Spread: +3.5 @ Seattle | Total: 49

Three quarterbacks in a row here, but how can you talk about fantasy options in Baltimore without mentioning Lamar Jackson ($6,800). Except for a dud against the Steelers, Jackson has been excellent. He’s had over 20 DK points in five of six games. His rushing, like Murray’s, has been coming on of late.  Besides the game against Miami where there was no reason for him to run, Jackson has flashed some rushing upside, tallying over 450 rushing yards so far this season.

Buffalo Bills

Spread: -16.5 vs Miami | Total: 40.5

Josh Allen ($6,500) is an intriguing option this week against a Miami team that’s basically throwing in the towel. The only QB they’ve been able to hold under 23 DK points is Case Keenum last week. He hasn’t had a huge spike week yet, but he’s been a consistent option in a year in which QBs have been dropping like flies. 

Chicago Bears

Spread: -3.5 vs New Orleans | Total: 38.5

Allen Robinson ($5,500) is in play coming off Chicago’s buy. The Bears have made an effort to target him early and often. He’s seen an average of 8.4 targets per game so far and ranks seventh in WOPR. In neutral situations, Chicago is fourth in pace.  Robinson has been saddled with questionable QBs his whole career but he’s largely figured out ways to score. Since the start of 2015, he’s averaged over 15 DK points.

Cincinnati Bengals

Spread: +4 vs Jacksonville | Total: 43.5

Tyler Boyd ($5,600) is fourth amongst WRs in targets so far this year and is coming off of a game where he disappointed many people. Even with two 25-plus DK point games, his FPOE is 161st of WRs. Some of that is just being stuck on the Bengals … but if he will continue to have that large a share of the Bengals pass-happy offense, he’s due for positive regression.

Detroit Lions

Spread: +1 vs Minnesota | Total: 46

Kenny Golladay ($5,800) has quietly been a target monster all season. He’s yet to suit up in 2019 and not receive at least eight targets. Golladay has turned in three WR1 performances and is averaging over 18 DK points.  He draws a tough matchup this week in the Vikings, but we’ve seen useful weeks from WRs in this matchup. Target hogs like Alshon Jeffery and Davante Adams have gotten there against this defense, so there’s no reason to think Golladay couldn’t.

Green Bay Packers

Spread: -5.5 vs Oakland | Total: 46.5

It’s … Allen Lazard ($3,000) week? He’s all the way down at stone min on DraftKings but he saw five targets and turned in a WR2 performance last week. Lazard scored 16.5 DK points in Week 6. That was nearly ten times his previous career high of 1.7 DK points.  If you want to get funky in a GPP lineup and jam every high-priced option in, Lazard can help, but he won’t be in my cash pool.

Houston Texans

Spread: +1 @ Indianapolis | Total: 47

Deshaun Watson ($7,000) is the only QB on the main slate in the $7,000 range. Watson has been a QB1 in four of his six games and is averaging just over 27 DK points per game.  We like QBs that can find multiple ways to score and be efficient when necessary. Watson has the third most rushing yards among QBs and the fourth most passing TDs, two things that can add to a QB’s floor and unlock their ceiling.

Indianapolis Colts

Spread: -1 vs Houston | Total: 47

T.Y. Hilton ($5,900) is getting some buzz around the industry this week. A lot of it is his positive PPR splits over his career, against Houston. A game from 2011 where he went off against the Texans doesn’t mean much though. There are too many good options around his price at WR this week to play him for that reason alone. 

Jacksonville Jaguars

Spread: -4 @ Cincinnati | Total: 43.5

Leonard Fournette ($7,000) has one of the best workloads in all of football. Through the first six weeks of the year, Fournette has been on the field for over 90% of the Jags’ snaps. He’s also seen an 18% target share on top of the 77% carry share.  He’s the RB9 but is 112th in FPOE per game. That’s largely a function of his lack of touchdowns. If that positively regresses and he gets a multiple TD game, we could be looking at a slate-breaking week.

Los Angeles Chargers

Spread: +2 @ Tennessee | Total: 40

It’s Hunter Henry ($4,000) week. But, there’s a good chance we’ve already missed his best game of the season after his 33 point outing last week. Henry is cheap and is in the cash conversation but for GPPs, I want some leverage with Mike Williams ($4,600). He’s seeing some of the most valuable work of all wide receivers over the last two weeks. Williams has only scored a touch over 25 DK points total over the last two weeks. As far as expected points go, though, he’s only behind Michael Thomas and Will Fuller over that timeframe. Positive regression is on its way.

Los Angeles Rams

Spread: -3 @ Atlanta | Total: 54.5

The Rams looked awful last week. But one of the best remedies for a tough offensive outing is getting to face the Atlanta Falcons the next week. This is a huge bounceback spot for Jared Goff ($6,200). He’s second in the league in attempts but has only thrown for the seventh most passing yards and the 17th most passing touchdowns.  Despite the difficulties he’s still had spike weeks, finishing as a QB1 in three of six starts. This week is the first step towards determining if he’ll be a play at all moving forward.

Miami Dolphins

Spread: +16.5 @ Buffalo | Total: 40.5

It’s a difficult decision … but I can’t imagine playing a Dolphin this week.

Minnesota Vikings

Spread: -1 @ Detroit | Total: 46

The Minnesota Vikings opened the year with a 10 pass attempt game in Week 1. Since then, if you listen very closely … you can hear Mike Zimmer screaming into his pillow when he goes to bed. The Vikings are averaging 29 pass attempts since then.  Zimmer may spontaneously combust if they approach those numbers again this week. Either way, Dalvin Cook ($8,000) has factored into their plans whether it’s an “establish the run” game or not. Cook has seen the sixth most opportunities of any RB in the league. Only four RBs have seen a higher percentage share of their team’s opportunities. 

New Orleans Saints

Spread: +3.5 @ Chicago | Total: 38.5

The Saints, from an NFL perspective, haven’t been too negatively affected by the loss of Drew Brees so far. From a fantasy perspective, though, it has resulted in a bit of a drop in their production. Michael Thomas ($7,900) had an uber-productive Week 5 performance, but outside of that, he’s been a WR2 every week. As Teddy Bridgewater ($5,300) has become more comfortable as the signal-caller, we’ve seen Thomas get back to his typical usage.  That, coupled with the uncertainty around what Alvin Kamara ($7,500) will be able to handle with his ankle injury, puts Thomas in play in GPPs. Thomas’ floor is safe because he does so much of his work close to the line of scrimmage. Of the 67 targets he’s seen in 2019, more than two-thirds have traveled less than 10 yards in the air. You can pencil him in, pretty easily, for eight targets every week.

New York Giants

Spread: -3 vs Arizona | Total: 49.5

Saquon Barkley ($8,900) seems like he’s on a trajectory to play this week. He’s coming back to an excellent situation. Barkley and the New York Football Giants are at home and they’re favored over the Cardinals. There haven’t been many opportunities for Barkley to play as a favorite, but he’s performed well in those situations.  In his four games as a favorite, he’s scored nearly six more PPR points on average than he has as an underdog.

Oakland Raiders

Spread: +5.5 @ Green Bay | Total: 46.5

Darren Waller ($4,700) is one of the better values at tight end on the slate. He’s averaging 15.3 DK points so far on the year and has four TE1 weeks under his belt already.  He’s seen the second-highest share of team opportunities among TEs on the year, trailing only Evan Engram. From a raw target perspective, he’s sixth among TEs. Either way, the Raiders seem like they’re content peppering him with targets.

San Francisco 49ers

Spread: -10 @ Washington | Total: 42

The backfield, in typical Shanahan fashion, is a bit of a mess. That mess is causing the options in San Francisco to be underpriced relative to their ceiling but not relative to their floor. Tevin Coleman ($5,600) saw the majority of snaps and rush attempts last week.

With the 49ers as 10-point favorites, the rushing role should be valuable in Washington this Sunday.

Seattle Seahawks

Spread: -3.5 vs Baltimore | Total: 49

Russell Wilson ($6,600) is making a strong case for MVP. He’s thrown exactly zero interceptions so far this season. Wilson’s also averaging over three touchdowns per game between passing and rushing.  He’s been a QB1 in four of six games and is averaging 27.1 DK points per game. Each week, Wilson is firmly in cash consideration and should be in your GPP builds if you’re building multiple lineups.

Tennessee Titans

Spread: -2 vs Los Angeles Chargers | Total: 40

Tennessee is slow and boring. They’re in the bottom third of the league in pace and they pass at the seventh lowest rate in the league.3 The installation of Ryan Tannehill ($4,800) doesn’t make me feel much better. If you’re playing anyone, I guess it’s A.J. Brown ($3,800) but I’m largely avoiding this game.

Washington

Spread: +10 vs San Francisco | Total: 42

Terry McLaurin ($6,100) has averaged 7.6 targets per game for a 22% market share in his active games. He took advantage of an easy matchup last week, dropping 29 points on the woeful Miami secondary. It was his second time as a WR1 in DK scoring. McLaurin will factor in on a weekly basis as he’s yet to see a week with fewer than seven targets in his rookie campaign.

Image Credit: Mark Goldman/Icon Sportswire. Pictured: Saquon Barkley.

  1. And in unadjusted pace  (back)
  2. Sixth in unadjusted pace.  (back)
  3. Unadjusted for script.  (back)

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