The Strength of Schedule Streaming app allows you to see which players have the easiest or most difficult upcoming schedules, a potentially league-winning edge that gives you the opportunity to buy players right before they explode in plus matchups.
Welcome back to the Buy Low Report. As usual, we will combine insight from the SoS Streaming App and the RotoViz Screener to identify players who are buy-low candidates. The SoS Streaming App reveals matchup data for each fantasy position. The Screener reports expected fantasy points (EP) — which measures the value of a player’s opportunities — and fantasy points over expectation (FPOE) — which measures a player’s efficiency.
Wide Receivers – Weeks 7 through 10
Fool me one time, shame on you.
Fool me twice, can’t put the blame on you.
Fool me three times …
For the third straight week, Houston’s star wideout headlines the Buy Low Report. He again had solid volume in Week 6, seeing 12 targets and turning them into nine catches and the second-highest expected fantasy point total of the week. However, he failed to find the end zone and only managed 55 yards, so fantasy owners are understandably disappointed with the stud receiver despite the encouraging volume.
The Texans have a difficult schedule for wide receivers over the next four weeks, but Hopkins is as close to matchup-proof as it gets. The production has been disappointing, but he’s still getting WR1-level volume from an MVP candidate quarterback. Between that and his history of elite fantasy production, I’m betting on Hopkins to turn it around sooner rather than later. Buy him before his production returns to normal.
Williams finds himself on this list for the second consecutive week after posting only 12.2 fantasy points despite receiving 10 targets (10th among wide receivers in Week 6) and 192 air yards (third).
The big-bodied wide receiver has yet to find the end zone in 2019 after recording 10 touchdowns last year, but he has been getting elite volume since his return from injury. Although the Chargers have a tough schedule for wide receivers over the next month — matchups against the Titans and Bears loom in Weeks 7 and 8 — Williams is worth buying simply because of volume.
Last time Fuller was on this list, he exploded for 14 catches, 217 yards, and three touchdowns in the following week. Don’t expect that level of production ever again, but Fuller is a buy candidate, especially if the team that owns him in your league views his Week 5 performance as an outlier in an otherwise mediocre campaign. Fuller accumulated nine targets and 158 air yards in Week 6, but he was only able to reel in five catches for 44 yards. He also dropped three would-be touchdowns. While it was obviously a disappointing follow-up to a historic performance, it makes Fuller a player to target in trades before he explodes again (although his next eruption almost certainly won’t be as prolific as his Week 5 outburst). As we discussed with Fuller’s teammate DeAndre Hopkins, the Texans’ schedule isn’t doing any favors for their wide receivers, but Fuller’s massive boom week potential — he has 700 air yards on the season, second-most among wide receivers — makes him worth chasing in spite of that.
Over the last two years, Wilson has struggled with injuries, but he’s gotten fantasy-relevant volume when healthy. Through the first six games of 2018, he led Miami in targets and was second on the team in WOPR even though he started the year as a backup. In Weeks 1 through 3 of last year, Wilson played 44.0% of snaps and saw 11 targets. In Weeks 4 through 6, he played 75.4% of snaps and got 21 targets. In Week 7, a hip injury ended what looked like a breakout campaign.
On the first drive of 2019, Wilson picked up right where he left off, seeing four targets and one rush attempt on the Dolphins’ first six snaps of the season. That’s right: Wilson was involved in five of the Dolphins’ first six plays of the year. Unfortunately, he had to leave that game with an injury and missed the next three games as well. In his return to the gridiron in Week 6, the Dolphins limited him to 29 snaps. Despite being on a pitch count, he led all Miami wide receivers in targets with six. While each of his targets isn’t worth very much — his average depth of target is -0.2 and his targets are coming from Josh Rosen — that kind of volume is worth targeting. He’s probably on the waiver wire in most leagues, but he’s worth targeting as a throw-in in trade deals this week if he’s not.
The Dolphins have an above-average schedule for wide receivers from Weeks 7 to 10, although that stretch begins with a difficult matchup against the Bills. Wilson has back-to-back positive matchups in Weeks 8 and 9, and it’s wise to invest now before his production catches up to his usage.
Running Backs – Weeks 7 through 10
Unfortunately, we haven’t seen much of Coleman this year due to a Week 1 ankle injury, but what little we have seen has been encouraging. His snap count jumped from 34% in Week 5 to 55% last week — presumably because the 49ers limited him in his first game back from the aforementioned injury — and he saw 16 carries and three targets in San Francisco’s Week 6 victory over the Rams. According to Ben Gretch’s TRAP stat — which he discussed on the RotoViz Overtime podcast back in August — Coleman had seven high-value touches last week, demonstrating that he’s getting valuable looks in addition to a high raw number of opportunities.
In Week 6, Coleman ranked fifth in expected fantasy points in Week 6 but 16th in actual PPR fantasy points. He led all running backs in fantasy points below expectation. Expect his efficiency to regress toward the mean sooner rather than later, especially given the strength of the 49ers’ offense. San Francisco has a relatively forgiving schedule for running backs over the next four weeks, with a Week 8 bout against the Panthers being the only negative matchup. As the clear lead back in a high-octane offense, Coleman’s upside is not baked into his current cost. Take advantage.
Fournette has lived up to his ADP so far this season, but he has still underwhelmed relative to the volume he’s getting. The LSU product ranks ninth among running backs in PPR fantasy points, but he trails only Christian McCaffrey in expected fantasy points.
Much of this is because he only has one score on 151 opportunities, so the time to buy him is now before his touchdown rate regresses toward the mean. Normally thought of as a between-the-tackles grinder, Fournette is on pace for 96 targets — which would shatter his previous career-high of 48 — and he ranks sixth at the position in expected points as a receiver. Over the next month, the Jaguars have the 10th-easiest schedule for running backs, including a Week 7 matchup against a Cincinnati defense that is firmly in the green.
Thanks for reading the Week 7 edition of the Buy Low Report. Check back next week for the Week 8 article.