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In-Season Articles

In-Season Articles

Strength in Numbers: Diontae Johnson WR1, The Red Wedding, and 9 Other Things That Matter From Week 2

What an absolutely terrible weekend. I mean, right? It might be easier to list the players who didn’t get hurt. It looks like Saquon Barkley‘s year is done, and there are numerous others facing lengthy absences after getting banged up in Week 2. Maybe it’s the shortened offseason, maybe it’s just bad luck, but it’s certainly unfortunate. The landscape of fantasy football changed entirely this weekend — in the worst way possible — but Strength in Numbers is here to analyze the most important takeaways in an actionable, numbers-filled format. Without further ado, let’s get into it. Diontae Johnson – Steelers WR1?…...

Strength in Numbers: Let Russ Cook and 11 Other Things That Matter From Week 1

If you’re an NBA fan, you’re probably familiar with Zach Lowe’s work. If not, here’s the relevant info: Every Friday, Lowe writes an article about five NBA things he liked from the week and five things he didn’t. It’s consistently one of the best columns in sports, and it’s hugely helpful for catching up on what happened across the league without having to pay attention to every single game. That’s the goal (maybe I should say pipe dream because Lowe’s work is truly fantastic) with this series. Except instead of talking about NBA games, we’ll discuss relevant stats and events…...

The My Guy List, Part 2: RotoViz Writers Name Their Single Favorite Mid-Round Value of 2020

“You can’t win your league in the first few rounds, but you sure can lose it.” Christian McCaffrey would beg to differ, but the point remains that many fantasy players err on the side of caution early in drafts and then target high-upside options in the middle and late rounds. Those undervalued breakout players are often the ones who move the needle for a championship team; Devonta Freeman is the best example, as he finished as the overall RB1 from a Round 8 ADP in 2015. A couple of days ago, we looked at which early-round players RotoViz writers are planting their…...

The My Guy List: RotoViz Writers Name Their Single Favorite Early-Round Value of 2020

At RotoViz, we do a lot of work on game theory. A lot on roster construction. The optimal way to structure your team in order to give yourself the best chance at winning. But at the end of the day, you need to pick the right players. You could have constructed a beautiful team last year, employed every lesson from Shawn Siegele’s Best Ball Workshop, hammered wide receivers in Rounds 3-6, waited on quarterback, the whole nine yards, and it wouldn’t have mattered if you drafted Saquon Barkley instead of Christian McCaffrey. You need the right guys. All of the other research we…...

Fantasy Minesweeper: 4 Running Back Landmines to Avoid and Who to Draft Instead

You ever played Minesweeper? That game where you try to click on all of the boxes that aren’t bombs? That’s kind of like a fantasy football draft board. There are landmines everywhere, and you just have to do your best to avoid them. I never really got the hang of Minesweeper. JuJu Smith-Schuster was also one of my highest-owned wide receivers last year, so maybe I’ve got a ways to go in the fantasy version too. Thankfully, we’ll just be looking at running backs today, so Smith-Schuster can’t haunt me again. These four RBs all have signs that point to…...

Swimming with Sharks: Breaking Down the General Trends and Roster Construction Tactics From a Staff FFPC Draft

Fantasy football is about picking the right players. If you had Christian McCaffrey last year, chances are you did very well. If you had Patrick Mahomes the year before, you were probably near the top of your league. That’s why so much fantasy content these days focuses on which players to choose. Which sleepers will break out. Which early-round players will bust. You get the idea. And if that’s what you’re looking for, I’ve got you covered: Check out who RotoViz drafters are willing to take ahead of or behind ADP in an actual draft situation. Here’s the thing: Roster…...

Swimming with Sharks: 7 Players RotoViz Analysts Let Fall in a Best Ball Mock Draft

Earlier this week, we went over seven players who went well ahead of ADP in a recent staff FFPC best ball mock draft. Rankings are cool and all, but it’s helpful to see which players RotoViz analysts are actually willing to reach for in an actual draft situation. Today, we’ll look at the flip side: Which players did our writers let fall? Who finally grabbed the falling knife? 7 Players Who Went Well Below ADP Derrick Henry…...

Swimming with Sharks: 7 Players Who Went Well Ahead of ADP in a RotoViz Best Ball Mock Draft

The RotoViz team recently gathered at HQ to partake in an FFPC-settings best ball draft. The draft order was as follows: Shawn Siegele Sam Wallace Jeff Matson Jack Miller Devin McIntyre Dave Caban Blair Andrews Stefan Lako Madison Parkhill Michael Dubner Mike Beers John Keenan I normally don’t play on FFPC, so this was a fun experience for me to branch out and experience a new league format. As you might know, FFPC is tight end-premium, meaning TEs get 1.5 points per reception versus 1.0 for running backs and wide receivers. You’re required to start one quarterback, two RBs, two…...

Applying Lessons From Historical Best Ball Win Rates: 7 Running Backs with Intriguing Efficiency Profiles

Derrick Henry, Austin Ekeler, and Aaron Jones were historically efficient in 2019. They were just efficient in different ways. Ekeler had the most receiving Fantasy Points Over Expectation (reFPOE) among all RBs over the last two decades. Henry paced all RBs in rushing Fantasy Points Over Expectation (ruFPOE) last year – just edging out second-place Jones. They aren’t going to do that again. Fortunately, they don’t need to; none of them are being drafted at a price point where they’d have to match their 2019 production to return value. A couple of weeks ago, I used best ball win rate…...

The Next David Johnson Might Be Almost Free: 2 Swiss Army Knife RBs to Supercharge Your Fantasy Teams

Running backs win fantasy leagues. Well, at least they have the potential to impact leagues more than other positions. The new Best Ball Win Rate Explorer tool lets us see the top-10 highest best ball win rate seasons over the last five years. Eight of them — including the top-seven — are RBs.   Player Position Year ADP Win Rate Christian McCaffrey RB 2019 2.4 36.9% Todd Gurley RB 2017 20.7 30.8% Devonta Freeman RB 2015 87.5 27.8% Christian McCaffrey RB 2018 16.7 27.3% David Johnson RB 2016 7.5 26.4% Le’Veon Bell RB 2017 2.1 24.1% Austin Ekeler RB 2019…...

Running Back Efficiency Is Overvalued, Except When It’s Not: A Simple Hack to Find League-Winning RB Targets In Every Part of the Draft

About a month ago, I wrote an article about the impact of efficiency on running back performance in the following year relative to market value. I separated RBs into different buckets (based on ADP, scoring, experience, etc.) and used their best ball win rate in Year N+1 to determine whether the public values efficiency correctly. Looking at all RBs, there isn’t much of a difference, but that changes once you arrange the players into different groups. For a lot of the groups, it actually looks like it’s better to target inefficient RBs. All of the numbers from that article are…...

Friendly Fire Enabled: Why You Should Fade Stefon Diggs in 2020 and Who to Target Instead

Stefon Diggs is the RotoViz poster child. D.J. Moore has made a strong case over the last two years, but Diggs has the advantage of being a former fifth-round pick who blossomed into an NFL superstar, whereas Moore’s success was more readily predicted by mainstream media based on his first-round pedigree. As such, it’s no surprise that the RV redraft rankings have Diggs as the WR14, 10 spots ahead of his positional ADP. Four of the five rankers have Diggs inside the top-15 at WR. It might not be +EV to go against some of the most well-respected analysts in…...

Applying Lessons From Historical Best Ball Win Rates: 15 Wide Receivers to Target

A couple of weeks ago, I wrote an article about the importance of wide receiver efficiency and found that we want to target efficient WRs who are going into their second or (to a lesser degree) third NFL season. This isn’t a new idea – Blair Andrews wrote about it last year in The Wrong Read No. 59 – but the extent to which efficient, inexperienced WRs outperform their inefficient counterparts remains shocking. As you can see in the chart below, the difference is especially glaring for rookie WRs. Conveniently, the 2019 WR draft class had one of the best opening acts…...

Recency Bias and the Natural Tendency to Zag: Why Zero RB Is Set to Crush in 2020

Zig when others zag. It’s a common refrain in the fantasy community, but here’s the thing: Not that many people actually do it. Over the years, RotoViz has become well-known for its contrarian beliefs, most notably with Shawn Siegele’s famous Zero RB article. More than six years later, Zero RB is still one of the most hotly debated topics in fantasy football. Zig when others zag. As you can see in the table below, RBs have never flown off the board like they are this year.   Year RB1-6 Average ADP RB7-12 Average ADP RB13-18 Average ADP RB19-24 Average ADP…...

Analyzing Historical Best Ball Win Rates: Let’s Change the Way You Think About Running Back Efficiency

Yesterday, I wrote an article that used best ball win rate data to examine the impact of efficiency for wide receivers. It built off of what Blair Andrews did in The Wrong Read No. 59, which showed that WRs who post positive Fantasy Points Over Expectation (FPOE) tend to see more volume and continue to be efficient in the following season. That’s certainly good to know, but it’s also important to include ADP in the conversation; in other words, it doesn’t matter if a player scores more fantasy points than the previous season if their ADP implies a larger increase than…...

Analyzing Historical Best Ball Win Rates: Does the Market Correctly Value Wide Receiver Efficiency?

A.J. Brown was special last year. Over the last two decades, Odell Beckham Jr. is the only rookie wide receiver to post more receiving Fantasy Points Over Expectation (reFPOE) than Brown had in 2019. Brown accumulated 1,051 yards on just 84 targets, leading the NFL in yards per target in the process.1 Since 1992, he is the only player to finish with over 1,000 yards on so few targets. He did that as a rookie. Understandably, there is considerable excitement about where Brown’s career could go from here. He’s currently going off the board as the WR14 (37.6 overall) in…...

Catch Passes to Beat the Masses: 6 Running Backs to Target Late in Best Ball Drafts

Before the NFL Draft, I wrote about why pass-catching is the key to identifying late-round running back breakouts. The evidence is pretty glaring, especially considering it’s not too difficult to predict which RBs will catch passes (as shown in the first article). There weren’t many league-winning RBs picked late in drafts last season, but you can safely expect that to rebound this year. Picking the right RB in the double-digit rounds can be the difference between winning your championship and not even finishing in the money – just ask anyone who had Alvin Kamara in 2017 how much of an impact…...

These 2 Undervalued WRs Are Must-Buys After Landing in Great Spots

It’s just so perfect when things come together like this. The fantasy football deities have blessed us by placing two fantastic wide receiver prospects in situations that will allow them to showcase their skills immediately. In case you didn’t know — and I really hope you did know if you’re reading this — Round 1 of the NFL Draft was yesterday. People have been hyping up this WR class for years, so it was no surprise when six of them came off the board in the first round — well above the 10-year average of 3.4. The first three WRs…...

3 Hyperproductive Wide Receivers Who Could Fall to Day 3 of the NFL Draft

At this point, it’s clear that college production is more important than athleticism for wide receiver prospects. In The Wrong Read No. 60, Blair Andrews used a correlation matrix to show which stats are related to performance at the next level. Predictably, he found that production metrics like Dominator Rating (DR), breakout age, and yards per team attempt (YPTA) are most closely tied to NFL success. However, a few prolific college WRs fall in the draft every year without fail. Stefon Diggs is probably the best example of a super productive college WR hitting in the pros despite falling to…...

Catch Passes to Beat the Masses: Why Pass-Catching is the Key to Identifying Late-Round RB Breakouts

Player evaluation is hard. That’s a truth we’ll have to deal with a lot over the next week, as the 2020 NFL Draft begins on Thursday. Sticking with the draft idea for a minute, we know that there are certain thresholds prospects have to meet to have a respectable likelihood of success at the next level. For example, if a wide receiver doesn’t break out in college, their professional prospects are usually pretty dire. These thresholds make it a lot easier for us because we can simply look at which players meet them and know that they have a better…...

Strength in Numbers: Diontae Johnson WR1, The Red Wedding, and 9 Other Things That Matter From Week 2

What an absolutely terrible weekend. I mean, right? It might be easier to list the players who didn’t get hurt. It looks like Saquon Barkley‘s year is done, and there are numerous others facing lengthy absences after getting banged up in Week 2. Maybe it’s the shortened offseason, maybe it’s just bad luck, but it’s certainly unfortunate. The landscape of fantasy football changed entirely this weekend — in the worst way possible — but Strength in Numbers is here to analyze the most important takeaways in an actionable, numbers-filled format. Without further ado, let’s get into it. Diontae Johnson – Steelers WR1?…...

Strength in Numbers: Let Russ Cook and 11 Other Things That Matter From Week 1

If you’re an NBA fan, you’re probably familiar with Zach Lowe’s work. If not, here’s the relevant info: Every Friday, Lowe writes an article about five NBA things he liked from the week and five things he didn’t. It’s consistently one of the best columns in sports, and it’s hugely helpful for catching up on what happened across the league without having to pay attention to every single game. That’s the goal (maybe I should say pipe dream because Lowe’s work is truly fantastic) with this series. Except instead of talking about NBA games, we’ll discuss relevant stats and events…...

The My Guy List, Part 2: RotoViz Writers Name Their Single Favorite Mid-Round Value of 2020

“You can’t win your league in the first few rounds, but you sure can lose it.” Christian McCaffrey would beg to differ, but the point remains that many fantasy players err on the side of caution early in drafts and then target high-upside options in the middle and late rounds. Those undervalued breakout players are often the ones who move the needle for a championship team; Devonta Freeman is the best example, as he finished as the overall RB1 from a Round 8 ADP in 2015. A couple of days ago, we looked at which early-round players RotoViz writers are planting their…...

The My Guy List: RotoViz Writers Name Their Single Favorite Early-Round Value of 2020

At RotoViz, we do a lot of work on game theory. A lot on roster construction. The optimal way to structure your team in order to give yourself the best chance at winning. But at the end of the day, you need to pick the right players. You could have constructed a beautiful team last year, employed every lesson from Shawn Siegele’s Best Ball Workshop, hammered wide receivers in Rounds 3-6, waited on quarterback, the whole nine yards, and it wouldn’t have mattered if you drafted Saquon Barkley instead of Christian McCaffrey. You need the right guys. All of the other research we…...

Fantasy Minesweeper: 4 Running Back Landmines to Avoid and Who to Draft Instead

You ever played Minesweeper? That game where you try to click on all of the boxes that aren’t bombs? That’s kind of like a fantasy football draft board. There are landmines everywhere, and you just have to do your best to avoid them. I never really got the hang of Minesweeper. JuJu Smith-Schuster was also one of my highest-owned wide receivers last year, so maybe I’ve got a ways to go in the fantasy version too. Thankfully, we’ll just be looking at running backs today, so Smith-Schuster can’t haunt me again. These four RBs all have signs that point to…...

Swimming with Sharks: Breaking Down the General Trends and Roster Construction Tactics From a Staff FFPC Draft

Fantasy football is about picking the right players. If you had Christian McCaffrey last year, chances are you did very well. If you had Patrick Mahomes the year before, you were probably near the top of your league. That’s why so much fantasy content these days focuses on which players to choose. Which sleepers will break out. Which early-round players will bust. You get the idea. And if that’s what you’re looking for, I’ve got you covered: Check out who RotoViz drafters are willing to take ahead of or behind ADP in an actual draft situation. Here’s the thing: Roster…...

Swimming with Sharks: 7 Players RotoViz Analysts Let Fall in a Best Ball Mock Draft

Earlier this week, we went over seven players who went well ahead of ADP in a recent staff FFPC best ball mock draft. Rankings are cool and all, but it’s helpful to see which players RotoViz analysts are actually willing to reach for in an actual draft situation. Today, we’ll look at the flip side: Which players did our writers let fall? Who finally grabbed the falling knife? 7 Players Who Went Well Below ADP Derrick Henry…...

Swimming with Sharks: 7 Players Who Went Well Ahead of ADP in a RotoViz Best Ball Mock Draft

The RotoViz team recently gathered at HQ to partake in an FFPC-settings best ball draft. The draft order was as follows: Shawn Siegele Sam Wallace Jeff Matson Jack Miller Devin McIntyre Dave Caban Blair Andrews Stefan Lako Madison Parkhill Michael Dubner Mike Beers John Keenan I normally don’t play on FFPC, so this was a fun experience for me to branch out and experience a new league format. As you might know, FFPC is tight end-premium, meaning TEs get 1.5 points per reception versus 1.0 for running backs and wide receivers. You’re required to start one quarterback, two RBs, two…...

Applying Lessons From Historical Best Ball Win Rates: 7 Running Backs with Intriguing Efficiency Profiles

Derrick Henry, Austin Ekeler, and Aaron Jones were historically efficient in 2019. They were just efficient in different ways. Ekeler had the most receiving Fantasy Points Over Expectation (reFPOE) among all RBs over the last two decades. Henry paced all RBs in rushing Fantasy Points Over Expectation (ruFPOE) last year – just edging out second-place Jones. They aren’t going to do that again. Fortunately, they don’t need to; none of them are being drafted at a price point where they’d have to match their 2019 production to return value. A couple of weeks ago, I used best ball win rate…...

The Next David Johnson Might Be Almost Free: 2 Swiss Army Knife RBs to Supercharge Your Fantasy Teams

Running backs win fantasy leagues. Well, at least they have the potential to impact leagues more than other positions. The new Best Ball Win Rate Explorer tool lets us see the top-10 highest best ball win rate seasons over the last five years. Eight of them — including the top-seven — are RBs.   Player Position Year ADP Win Rate Christian McCaffrey RB 2019 2.4 36.9% Todd Gurley RB 2017 20.7 30.8% Devonta Freeman RB 2015 87.5 27.8% Christian McCaffrey RB 2018 16.7 27.3% David Johnson RB 2016 7.5 26.4% Le’Veon Bell RB 2017 2.1 24.1% Austin Ekeler RB 2019…...

Running Back Efficiency Is Overvalued, Except When It’s Not: A Simple Hack to Find League-Winning RB Targets In Every Part of the Draft

About a month ago, I wrote an article about the impact of efficiency on running back performance in the following year relative to market value. I separated RBs into different buckets (based on ADP, scoring, experience, etc.) and used their best ball win rate in Year N+1 to determine whether the public values efficiency correctly. Looking at all RBs, there isn’t much of a difference, but that changes once you arrange the players into different groups. For a lot of the groups, it actually looks like it’s better to target inefficient RBs. All of the numbers from that article are…...

Friendly Fire Enabled: Why You Should Fade Stefon Diggs in 2020 and Who to Target Instead

Stefon Diggs is the RotoViz poster child. D.J. Moore has made a strong case over the last two years, but Diggs has the advantage of being a former fifth-round pick who blossomed into an NFL superstar, whereas Moore’s success was more readily predicted by mainstream media based on his first-round pedigree. As such, it’s no surprise that the RV redraft rankings have Diggs as the WR14, 10 spots ahead of his positional ADP. Four of the five rankers have Diggs inside the top-15 at WR. It might not be +EV to go against some of the most well-respected analysts in…...

Applying Lessons From Historical Best Ball Win Rates: 15 Wide Receivers to Target

A couple of weeks ago, I wrote an article about the importance of wide receiver efficiency and found that we want to target efficient WRs who are going into their second or (to a lesser degree) third NFL season. This isn’t a new idea – Blair Andrews wrote about it last year in The Wrong Read No. 59 – but the extent to which efficient, inexperienced WRs outperform their inefficient counterparts remains shocking. As you can see in the chart below, the difference is especially glaring for rookie WRs. Conveniently, the 2019 WR draft class had one of the best opening acts…...

Recency Bias and the Natural Tendency to Zag: Why Zero RB Is Set to Crush in 2020

Zig when others zag. It’s a common refrain in the fantasy community, but here’s the thing: Not that many people actually do it. Over the years, RotoViz has become well-known for its contrarian beliefs, most notably with Shawn Siegele’s famous Zero RB article. More than six years later, Zero RB is still one of the most hotly debated topics in fantasy football. Zig when others zag. As you can see in the table below, RBs have never flown off the board like they are this year.   Year RB1-6 Average ADP RB7-12 Average ADP RB13-18 Average ADP RB19-24 Average ADP…...

Analyzing Historical Best Ball Win Rates: Let’s Change the Way You Think About Running Back Efficiency

Yesterday, I wrote an article that used best ball win rate data to examine the impact of efficiency for wide receivers. It built off of what Blair Andrews did in The Wrong Read No. 59, which showed that WRs who post positive Fantasy Points Over Expectation (FPOE) tend to see more volume and continue to be efficient in the following season. That’s certainly good to know, but it’s also important to include ADP in the conversation; in other words, it doesn’t matter if a player scores more fantasy points than the previous season if their ADP implies a larger increase than…...

Analyzing Historical Best Ball Win Rates: Does the Market Correctly Value Wide Receiver Efficiency?

A.J. Brown was special last year. Over the last two decades, Odell Beckham Jr. is the only rookie wide receiver to post more receiving Fantasy Points Over Expectation (reFPOE) than Brown had in 2019. Brown accumulated 1,051 yards on just 84 targets, leading the NFL in yards per target in the process.1 Since 1992, he is the only player to finish with over 1,000 yards on so few targets. He did that as a rookie. Understandably, there is considerable excitement about where Brown’s career could go from here. He’s currently going off the board as the WR14 (37.6 overall) in…...

Catch Passes to Beat the Masses: 6 Running Backs to Target Late in Best Ball Drafts

Before the NFL Draft, I wrote about why pass-catching is the key to identifying late-round running back breakouts. The evidence is pretty glaring, especially considering it’s not too difficult to predict which RBs will catch passes (as shown in the first article). There weren’t many league-winning RBs picked late in drafts last season, but you can safely expect that to rebound this year. Picking the right RB in the double-digit rounds can be the difference between winning your championship and not even finishing in the money – just ask anyone who had Alvin Kamara in 2017 how much of an impact…...

These 2 Undervalued WRs Are Must-Buys After Landing in Great Spots

It’s just so perfect when things come together like this. The fantasy football deities have blessed us by placing two fantastic wide receiver prospects in situations that will allow them to showcase their skills immediately. In case you didn’t know — and I really hope you did know if you’re reading this — Round 1 of the NFL Draft was yesterday. People have been hyping up this WR class for years, so it was no surprise when six of them came off the board in the first round — well above the 10-year average of 3.4. The first three WRs…...

3 Hyperproductive Wide Receivers Who Could Fall to Day 3 of the NFL Draft

At this point, it’s clear that college production is more important than athleticism for wide receiver prospects. In The Wrong Read No. 60, Blair Andrews used a correlation matrix to show which stats are related to performance at the next level. Predictably, he found that production metrics like Dominator Rating (DR), breakout age, and yards per team attempt (YPTA) are most closely tied to NFL success. However, a few prolific college WRs fall in the draft every year without fail. Stefon Diggs is probably the best example of a super productive college WR hitting in the pros despite falling to…...

Catch Passes to Beat the Masses: Why Pass-Catching is the Key to Identifying Late-Round RB Breakouts

Player evaluation is hard. That’s a truth we’ll have to deal with a lot over the next week, as the 2020 NFL Draft begins on Thursday. Sticking with the draft idea for a minute, we know that there are certain thresholds prospects have to meet to have a respectable likelihood of success at the next level. For example, if a wide receiver doesn’t break out in college, their professional prospects are usually pretty dire. These thresholds make it a lot easier for us because we can simply look at which players meet them and know that they have a better…...

Strength in Numbers: Let Russ Cook and 11 Other Things That Matter From Week 1

If you’re an NBA fan, you’re probably familiar with Zach Lowe’s work. If not, here’s the relevant info: Every Friday, Lowe writes an article about five NBA things he liked from the week and five things he didn’t. It’s consistently one of the best columns in sports, and it’s hugely…...

Catch Passes to Beat the Masses: 6 Running Backs to Target Late in Best Ball Drafts

Before the NFL Draft, I wrote about why pass-catching is the key to identifying late-round running back breakouts. The evidence is pretty glaring, especially considering it’s not too difficult to predict which RBs will catch passes (as shown in the first article). There weren’t many league-winning RBs picked late in…...

These 2 Undervalued WRs Are Must-Buys After Landing in Great Spots

It’s just so perfect when things come together like this. The fantasy football deities have blessed us by placing two fantastic wide receiver prospects in situations that will allow them to showcase their skills immediately. In case you didn’t know — and I really hope you did know if you’re…...

3 Hyperproductive Wide Receivers Who Could Fall to Day 3 of the NFL Draft

At this point, it’s clear that college production is more important than athleticism for wide receiver prospects. In The Wrong Read No. 60, Blair Andrews used a correlation matrix to show which stats are related to performance at the next level. Predictably, he found that production metrics like Dominator Rating…...

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