About a month ago, I wrote an article about the impact of efficiency on running back performance in the following year relative to market value. I separated RBs into different buckets (based on ADP, scoring, experience, etc.) and used their best ball win rate in Year N+1 to determine whether the public values efficiency correctly. Looking at all RBs, there isn’t much of a difference,…...

Stefon Diggs is the RotoViz poster child. D.J. Moore has made a strong case over the last two years, but Diggs has the advantage of being a former fifth-round pick who blossomed into an NFL superstar, whereas Moore’s success was more readily predicted by mainstream media based on his first-round pedigree. As such, it’s no surprise that the RV redraft rankings have Diggs as the…...

A couple of weeks ago, I wrote an article about the importance of wide receiver efficiency and found that we want to target efficient WRs who are going into their second or (to a lesser degree) third NFL season. This isn’t a new idea – Blair Andrews wrote about it last year in The Wrong Read No. 59 – but the extent to which efficient, inexperienced WRs…...

Zig when others zag. It’s a common refrain in the fantasy community, but here’s the thing: Not that many people actually do it. Over the years, RotoViz has become well-known for its contrarian beliefs, most notably with Shawn Siegele’s famous Zero RB article. More than six years later, Zero RB is still one of the most hotly debated topics in fantasy football. Zig when others…...

Yesterday, I wrote an article that used best ball win rate data to examine the impact of efficiency for wide receivers. It built off of what Blair Andrews did in The Wrong Read No. 59, which showed that WRs who post positive Fantasy Points Over Expectation (FPOE) tend to see more volume and continue to be efficient in the following season. That’s certainly good to know,…...

A.J. Brown was special last year. Over the last two decades, Odell Beckham Jr. is the only rookie wide receiver to post more receiving Fantasy Points Over Expectation (reFPOE) than Brown had in 2019. Brown accumulated 1,051 yards on just 84 targets, leading the NFL in yards per target in the process.[1]Minimum 30 targets. Since 1992, he is the only player to finish with over…...

Before the NFL Draft, I wrote about why pass-catching is the key to identifying late-round running back breakouts. The evidence is pretty glaring, especially considering it’s not too difficult to predict which RBs will catch passes (as shown in the first article). There weren’t many league-winning RBs picked late in drafts last season, but you can safely expect that to rebound this year. Picking the…...

I drafted so much Brandin Cooks last offseason. He was coming off of four consecutive 1,000-yard seasons and seemed destined for another in what looked like one of the league’s most potent offenses. He finished the season with 110.5 points and a 2.9% win rate — the fourth-lowest win rate among all players drafted in at least 200 drafts. Here’s the thing: I’m going to…...