3 Hyperproductive Wide Receivers Who Could Fall to Day 3 of the NFL Draft
Share on twitter
Share on facebook
Image Credit: Jesse Beals/Icon Sportswire. Pictured: Isaiah Hodgins.

At this point, it’s clear that college production is more important than athleticism for wide receiver prospects. In The Wrong Read No. 60, Blair Andrews used a correlation matrix to show which stats are related to performance at the next level. Predictably, he found that production metrics like Dominator Rating (DR), breakout age, and yards per team attempt (YPTA) are most closely tied to NFL success. However, a few prolific college WRs fall in the draft every year without fail.

Stefon Diggs is probably the best example of a super productive college WR hitting in the pros despite falling to Day 3 of the NFL Draft. As a 19-year-old freshman at Maryland, Diggs recorded a 38% DR, and he followed it up with two more seasons above a 30% DR before leaving school early to enter the draft. Although he fell to the fifth round, he checked pretty much every box as a prospect. Today, we’ll look at a few guys who look like they could be the next late-round breakout WR based on their college production.

Tyler Johnson

The most productive WR in the class has a fourth-round NFL Draft ADP on Grinding the Mocks.

Tyler Johnson recorded a 62% DR as a sophomore, 51% as a junior, and 40% in his final season. On the whole, he had a career DR of 44% — that’s the 10th-highest rating among all FBS WRs over the last 15 seasons.

Just to be clear, that means Johnson’s career DR is 10th-best out of the 2,491 WRs in the RotoViz Box Score Scout. That seems good.

Seas School Pos Age Games Rec RecYds RecYPR RecTD RecMS RecYdsMS RecTDMS RecDominator
2016 Minnesota WR 18.3 7 14 141 10.1 1 0.12 0.11 0.20 0.15
2017 Minnesota WR 19.3 10 35 677 19.3 7 0.33 0.47 0.78 0.62
2018 Minnesota WR 20.3 13 78 1169 15.0 12 0.41 0.43 0.60 0.51
2019 Minnesota WR 21.3 13 86 1318 15.3 13 0.41 0.40 0.42 0.40
Career WR 43 213 3305 15.5 33 0.34 0.38 0.51 0.44

His incredible production over the last two years is especially impressive considering he was competing for targets with potential 2021 first-round pick Rashod Bateman. His 19.3 breakout age is one of the best in recent memory, and it bodes well for his future considering that 46.2% of WRs with a breakout age of 20.0 or below posted a 200-point season in at least one of their first three years in the NFL. Granted, the 39 WRs included in that sample had an NFL Draft ADP of 38.1, so Johnson is going to be at a significant disadvantage compared to those guys based on draft capital.

Over his four-year career, Johnson averaged 2.64 YPTA (95th percentile among all WR prospects since 2001). As a senior, he averaged 3.82 (100th percentile). Put simply, he was a force to be reckoned with in college. Shawn Siegele’s recent article showed that the WR Prospect Lab places Johnson in the 87th percentile among WR prospects, best in this year’s class. The only real knock on his profile is that he didn’t declare early, but you’d still expect someone with his history of production to go on the first two days of the draft. The Wrong Read No. 53 highlighted the importance of declaring early, but at some point, you have to overlook one negative aspect of a player’s profile when the rest of it looks so strong.

All of this leads to the obvious question: Why isn’t Johnson projected to go higher?

Please subscribe to Read The Entire Article!


What’s included in your subscription?

  • Exclusive Access to RotoViz Study Hall
    • A treasure trove of our most insightful articles that will teach you the metrics that matter, time-tested winning strategies, the approaches that will give you an edge, and teach you how to be an effective fantasy manager.
  • Revolutionary Tools
    • Including the NFL Stat Explorer, Weekly GLSP Projections, NCAA Prospect Box Score Scout, Combine Explorer, Range of Outcomes App, DFS Lineup Optimizer, Best Ball Suite,and many, many, more.
  • Groundbreaking Articles
    • RotoViz is home of the original Zero-RB article and continues to push fantasy gamers forward as the go-to destination for evidence-based analysis and strategic advantages.
  • Weekly Projections
    • Built using RotoViz’s unique GLSP approach.
  • Expert Rankings
  • NFL, CFB, and PGA coverage included in all subscription levels.
  • And a whole lot more…



What we do


Sign-up today for our free Premium Email subscription!

© 2020 RotoViz. All rights Reserved.