Recency Bias and the Natural Tendency to Zag: Why Zero RB Is Set to Crush in 2020
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Image Credit: Robin Alam/Icon Sportswire. Pictured: James White.

Zig when others zag.

It’s a common refrain in the fantasy community, but here’s the thing: Not that many people actually do it. Over the years, RotoViz has become well-known for its contrarian beliefs, most notably with Shawn Siegele’s famous Zero RB article. More than six years later, Zero RB is still one of the most hotly debated topics in fantasy football.

Zig when others zag.

As you can see in the table below, RBs have never flown off the board like they are this year.

Year RB1-6 Average ADP RB7-12 Average ADP RB13-18 Average ADP RB19-24 Average ADP
2015 6.8 18.4 34.6 43.4
2016 10.4 26.1 45.6 60.4
2017 6.7 20.5 41.3 57.6
2018 4.1 13.9 29.0 45.1
2019 4.5 15.8 31.3 44.4
2020 3.9 12.5 24.6 40.9

Despite that, many fantasy analysts are still advocating for an RB-heavy start. As Shawn showed in his most recent Best Ball Workshop article, an RB/RB start has led to an 8.8% win rate over the last five years. However, the results become even more interesting if you split that number up by year and compare it to the table above.

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