Recency Bias and the Natural Tendency to Zag: Why Zero RB Is Set to Crush in 2020
Share on twitter
Share on facebook
Image Credit: Robin Alam/Icon Sportswire. Pictured: James White.

Zig when others zag.

It’s a common refrain in the fantasy community, but here’s the thing: Not that many people actually do it. Over the years, RotoViz has become well-known for its contrarian beliefs, most notably with Shawn Siegele’s famous Zero RB article. More than six years later, Zero RB is still one of the most hotly debated topics in fantasy football.

Zig when others zag.

As you can see in the table below, RBs have never flown off the board like they are this year.

 
Year RB1-6 Average ADP RB7-12 Average ADP RB13-18 Average ADP RB19-24 Average ADP
2015 6.8 18.4 34.6 43.4
2016 10.4 26.1 45.6 60.4
2017 6.7 20.5 41.3 57.6
2018 4.1 13.9 29.0 45.1
2019 4.5 15.8 31.3 44.4
2020 3.9 12.5 24.6 40.9

Despite that, many fantasy analysts are still advocating for an RB-heavy start. As Shawn showed in his most recent Best Ball Workshop article, an RB/RB start has led to an 8.8% win rate over the last five years. However, the results become even more interesting if you split that number up by year and compare it to the table above.

Please subscribe to Read The Entire Article!

 

What’s included in your subscription??

  • Exclusive Access to RotoViz Study Hall
    • A treasure trove of our most insightful articles that will teach you the metrics that matter, time-tested winning strategies, the approaches that will give you an edge, and teach you how to be an effective fantasy manager.
  • Revolutionary Tools
    • Including the NFL Stat Explorer, Weekly GLSP Projections, NCAA Prospect Box Score Scout, Combine Explorer, Range of Outcomes App, DFS Lineup Optimizer, Best Ball Suite,and many, many, more.
  • Groundbreaking Articles
    • RotoViz is home of the original Zero-RB article and continues to push fantasy gamers forward as the go-to destination for evidence-based analysis and strategic advantages.
  • Weekly Projections
    • Built using RotoViz’s unique GLSP approach.
  • Expert Rankings
  • NFL, CFB, and PGA coverage included in all subscription levels.
  • And a whole lot more…

The Blitz

What we do
Connect
Support

rotovizmain@gmail.com

Sign-up today for our free Premium Email subscription!

© 2020 RotoViz. All rights Reserved.

Welcome Back to RotoViz...

– IF YOU HAVE ISSUES LOGGING IN PLEASE CONTACT ROTOVIZMAIN@GMAIL.COM

– PLEASE NOTE THAT ROTOVIZ USES WORDPRESS FOR ACCOUNT MANAGEMENT. IF RESETTING YOUR PASSWORD YOU MAY BE FOWARDED TO A WORDPRESS PAGE.