Derrick Henry, Austin Ekeler, and Aaron Jones were historically efficient in 2019.
They were just efficient in different ways. Ekeler had the most receiving Fantasy Points Over Expectation (reFPOE) among all RBs over the last two decades. Henry paced all RBs in rushing Fantasy Points Over Expectation (ruFPOE) last year – just edging out second-place Jones.
They aren’t going to do that again. Fortunately, they don’t need to; none of them are being drafted at a price point where they’d have to match their 2019 production to return value.
A couple of weeks ago, I used best ball win rate data to determine whether the market values rushing and receiving efficiency correctly for RBs. I recommend reading that article before you proceed with this one – because there isn’t a black-and-white conclusion – but the general idea is that receiving efficiency is universally undervalued (especially for inexperienced RBs), whereas the public overvalues rushing efficiency for some groups and undervalues it for others.
Today, we’ll use the findings from that article to pinpoint two Year 2 RBs (the group most impacted by previous-season efficiency) you need to target in fantasy drafts this season, two to fade, and three others with intriguing efficiency profiles. In a later article, we’ll do the same for veteran backs.