When I’m looking into the DFS slate each week, I like to go game by game and identify players or situations that intrigue me. In every game, on every team, there’s a situation that’s relevant for DFS purposes, for either a positive or negative reason. These situations inform us of how we should be attacking each slate.
Spread: +4.5 @ Tampa Bay | Total: 51
Over the first six weeks of the season, Arizona only trailed the Rams in pace. They were running a play ever 23.3 seconds. Over the past three weeks, though, the Cardinals have slowed down quite a bit. They’re in the middle of the pack now at 26.5 seconds per snap. Kyler Murray ($6,500) and company will likely be in catchup mode this week.
In games where the Cardinals are 4-point dogs or worse, they’ve attempted fewer passes and Kyler has run less. He’s also been a bit unlucky in the touchdown department despite a perceived better game script.
Spread: +13 @ New Orleans | Total: 51
When they’re trailing by a touchdown or more, which is definitely in the range of outcomes for this game, they pass at a 72% clip. There isn’t a single relevant statistic that Austin Hooper ($5,500) isn’t crushing. He’s in the top ten of everything including the top two of the following:
- Receiving Yards
- PPR Points1
- PPR Points Per Game
- EP Per Game
- FPOE Per Game
With an apparent target floor of five and a ceiling as high as 11, you can do much worse than Hooper.
Spread: -10 @ Cincinnati | Total: 45.5
Since dismantling the Dolphins in Week 1, a game in which there was no need for Lamar Jackson ($7,300) take off running, he’s averaged 13.7 rush attempts for an average of 90 yards per game. That’s the fantasy equivalent of almost 200 extra passing yards. He’s averaging 212 passing yards per game over that span, but the upside he gives you with the potential to hit the 100-yard rushing bonus is massive every week.
He is the most expensive quarterback on the slate, but I’m not sure that matters.
Spread: +2.5 @ Cleveland | Total: 40.5
Even on a short slate, Josh Allen ($6,300) might be a bit overpriced. Over $6,000 for a guy who’s only managed two QB1 finished so far this season seems like a steep price.
Allen is just 13th in PPR Points per game this season. It’s largely a function of volume since he’s outside of the top 20 quarterbacks in completions and passing yards.
Spread: +5.5 @ Green Bay | Total: 46.5
We’re going to play DFS Frankenstein again this week and see what Christian McCaffrey’s ($10,500) price should actually be based on his usage. He’s seeing the most rush attempts per game of any running back in the league. We’ll use Marlon Mack as our example again this week since his value is tied almost exclusively to his rushing.2 Mack is $7,000 this week. Tyreek Hill is averaging just 0.2 more targets per game than CMC, and Hill is $7,700.
If someone tells you to fade CMC — in cash, especially — do yourself a favor and unsubscribe, unfollow, delete their number, and run away.
Spread: -2.5 vs Detroit | Total: 41.5
There are times where you wish you could take back something that you said. My FF Multiverse article about Mitchell Trubisky ($5,100) might be the worst thing ever published on RotoViz. I’ve completely disavowed that analysis and look forward to it getting buried deeper and deeper in the RV article queue. David Montgomery ($5,300) is in play as a dart throw if you’re into that kind of thing but Trubisky’s effect on the Bears offense is seemingly too much to overcome for fantasy purposes.
Spread: +10 vs Baltimore | Total: 45.5
It looked like A.J. Green may suit up this week, but there was a material change in the situation and he’ll miss again in Week 10. Whether Green is back or not, Tyler Boyd ($4,700) is in play again this week. Boyd has seen the fifth-most targets per game among wide receivers.
He’s seeing just 0.9 fewer targets per game than Michael Thomas who is the only receiver above $8,000 on the main slate this week.
Spread: -2.5 vs Buffalo | Total: 40.5
Oh, Cleveland. The hype train has derailed and left nothing but destruction in its wake. Nick Chubb ($7,000) is coming off of a dud performance last week. The volume was there for him, again, with 25 opportunities. Chubb is fifth in opportunities per game among running backs and is 6th in total opportunities despite already having his bye week.
The knock on Chubb coming into the season had been that he wouldn’t be featured in the passing game. He does have two games where he’s only seen one target. In the other six, though, he’s seen at least four in each game. Chubb is worth a GPP dart this week as a low-owned option.
Spread: +2.5 @ Chicago | Total: 41.5
Matthew Stafford ($6,400) is finally starting to hit the price tag he should be based on his play this year. He’s been hyper-efficient so far.
He’s just 12th in pass attempts but is in the top five in passing yards and touchdowns. He’s utterly stackable, as well, since they really only have two pass catchers worth rostering. Kenny Golladay ($7,000) and Marvin Jones ($6,200) should be in consideration for GPPs with Stafford until further notice.
Green Bay Packers
Spread: -5.5 vs Carolina | Total: 46.5
The Packers and more specifically Aaron Rodgers ($6,600) looked awful last week against Los Angeles. Davante Adams ($6,900) saw 11 targets in his return to action. He didn’t do much with those targets as the offense struggled, but going back home should help. Adams has scored an average of 24 PPR Points in home games with totals over 45 points.
Spread: -10.5 vs Miami | Total: 44
Marlon Mack ($7,000) is a 10-point home favorite this week. It’s pretty well-documented that Mack is a much better option in this gamescript. In games where the Colts are favored by more than a touchdown, he’s averaged over 17 PPR Points per game, compared to just over 10 points in all other games.
Kansas City Chiefs
Spread: -4 @ Tennessee | Total: 48.5
This may be the lowest-owned that you can ever get Patrick Mahomes ($7,000). I don’t make a habit of getting exposure to games involving the Titans, but for the Chiefs, I’ll make an exception. Putting Mahomes together with Tyreek Hill ($7,700) is the most appealing option to stack him with.
Those splits don’t indicate a lack of value from Mahomes. But, they show just how easy it is for Hill to reach value in DFS. Getting eight Mahomes targets feels like a no-brainer on any slate.
Los Angeles Rams
Spread: -3.5 @ Pittsburgh | Total: 45
I simply can’t quit Cooper Kupp ($7,300). He hasn’t really given me many reasons to bail and I keep coming back for more. Kupp has had five WR1 performances so far this season. The only “knock” against him is his air yards, as he does most of his work close to the line of scrimmage.
He’s top 10 in almost every other relevant category for wide receivers.
Spread: +10.5 @ Indianapolis | Total: 44
The no-longer-winless Miami Dolphins head to Indianapolis this week as 10-point road underdogs. In games where Josh Rosen has made an appearance, Devante Parker ($4,800) has underperformed.
In the rest of the games, Parker has averaged nearly 15 PPR Points on eight targets per game. With no Preston Williams, Parker becomes the undisputed top option in this vaunted Dolphins’ passing attack.
New Orleans Saints
Spread: -13 vs Atlanta | Total: 51
Alvin Kamara ($8,200) appears that he will be making his return to action this week. The spot is excellent given that they’re playing the Falcons who, from the looks of it, appear to be ready for the offseason already. The question is whether they give him his typical workload.3
He’s seen at least 16 opportunities in each game that he’s been active. If you’re playing him, you’re hoping for a close game because there isn’t much of a chance that he sees a huge workload in a blowout.
New York Giants
Spread: -2.5 @ New York Jets | Total: 43.5
The Giants are a disaster. Daniel Jones ($5,700) looks, at times, like he’s never touched a football in his life, or, at the very least, is allergic to holding onto it. If there’s any mercy for Giants fans,4 Pat Shurmur will be getting his resume together sometime soon. The worst part of all of this, from a fantasy perspective, is that Saquon Barkley’s ($8,800) potential is being wasted.
One dud here and there is acceptable. Things happen. But, the fact that Barkley could finish a game with just 15.5 DK Points is a crime against humanity. His ceiling seems capped to a certain extent because of how the offense is functioning at the moment.
New York Jets
Spread: +2.5 vs New York Giants | Total: 43.5
Le’Veon Bell ($6,900) is banged up at the moment and was limited in practice on Thursday. It doesn’t appear to be anything serious, but it’s worth monitoring. Only McCaffrey has seen a higher percentage of his team’s opportunities. The issue, though, is that Bell has done a heck of a lot less than CMC with his touches.
He’s averaging under 15 DK points per game and has five performances outside of the RB1 range. For a guy that costs nearly $7,000, you’d want more of a floor in most formats. If you believe the Jets win this game, he may bring some GPP value at low ownership.
Spread: +3.5 vs Los Angeles Rams | Total: 43.5
JuJu Smith-Schuster ($5,800) is at one of the lowest prices we’ve seen from him in a long time. Unfortunately, I’m not sure it matters.
He’s had just one WR1 game so far this season. Smith-Schuster isn’t in the top 25 of any relevant category for wide receivers.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Spread: -4.5 vs Arizona | Total: 51
Mike Evans ($7,600) has been featured early and often since a dud against New Orleans. He’s had 45 targets over the past three games. That would be impressive5 if his aDOT was super low, but he currently has the most air yards of any wide receiver in the NFL.
He’s had just one game all year where he saw less than 100 air yards and is averaging over 220 air yards per game over the past three games. With such a high team total, he’s firmly in play this week.
Spread: +4 vs Kansas City | Total: 48.5
Tennessee has been one of my least favorite offenses to play in DFS for obvious reasons. They’re one of the slowest teams in the league at 28.2 seconds per snap in neutral game scripts. Even when trailing, they are in the middle of the pack in passing rate. One would imagine that would mean a useful running back. Over the past six games, Derrick Henry ($6,400) has had two RB1, two RB2, and two RB3 finishes.
The inconsistency in his pass game usage makes him basically unusable at this price. He’s yet to see more than three targets in a game this year.