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High Staked: Looking Behind to See Ahead, or Hindsight and 2020

Veteran high stakes fantasy football player Monty Phan chronicles his season.

It’s entering Week 11, so in four days, two-thirds of the 2,400 FFPC Main Event teams will do what eliminated teams do: look to next year.

This year’s ADP was dominated by running backs in the first half of Round 1, with wide receivers, a few more RBs and tight end Travis Kelce selected with picks six through 12. The second round had a more even mix of WRs and RBs, with TEs Zach Ertz and George Kittle thrown in.

As I touched on in Monday’s post, starting RBs drafted in the first six rounds stayed healthy at a remarkable rate this season. Typically, much of draft ADP is shaped by what happened the previous season. So, should RBs continue to stay relatively healthy for the next month, then we could easily see drafts in 2020 dominated by RBs in the first two rounds, especially since many of the WRs and TEs drafted in that range have underperformed. First-round newcomers could include Aaron Jones and Josh Jacobs, with Nick Chubb and Dalvin Cook solidifying their positions as top-six picks.

Of course, with more RBs going earlier, it would mean that WRs and TEs would be pushed down. JuJu Smith-Schuster, consistently drafted among the top five WRs this year, is currently the overall WR31. But at least he has the excuse that his starting quarterback got hurt. Odell Beckham, also a top-five WR, is WR21 – behind teammate Jarvis Landry, often drafted some four rounds later – despite having his QB healthy all season.

Then there are the tight ends. In the four high-stakes leagues in which I helped draft teams this year, we grabbed a TE early in all of them, whether it was Kittle or Ertz in the second round, or reaching for Evan Engram early in the third. It wasn’t really a winning strategy. Later-round TEs such as Austin Hooper, Mark Andrews and Darren Waller – often available in the eighth round or later – have dominated this season, while Ertz, Kittle and (to some extent) Kelce have failed to recoup their cost. I’d expect to see a lot of teams next year reason that they’d rather wait to take second-year TEs T.J. Hockenson or Noah Fant, or even bet on third-year breakouts from Dallas Goedert or Mike Gesicki than burn an early pick on a top guy at the position.

Week 11 Waivers

Speaking of RB injury rates and TE gambles, this week’s waiver report had teams blowing their remaining cash on Brian Hill, who looks to assume the possible workhorse role of Devonta Freeman, and the likes of Jacob Hollister, Ryan Griffin and Nick Boyle at TE.

WeekPlayerPosAddsDropsAvg Winning BidLow Winning BidMedian Winning BidHigh Winning Bid
11OAK Team DefenseDF134032112212
11Brian HillRB94038645388.5817
11James WashingtonWR83173149490
11Daniel CarlsonPK731711177
11Josh LamboPK6531013200
11Randall CobbWR63075151680
11Ka'imi FairbairnPK6251113100
11Andy IsabellaWR57030114339
11Ryan GriffinTE55234113211
11Jalen RichardRB54340114307
11Nick FolesQB50346123259
11NYJ Team DefenseDF451325110128
11Nick BoyleTE4401917200
11WAS Team DefenseDF4301014196
11Kendrick BourneWR41041112501
11PHI Team DefenseDF40527111151
11John RossWR39349120420
11Dawson KnoxTE37042111368
11Irv SmithTE37334116191
11JAC Team DefenseDF35681354
11Russell GageWR3591713135
11Raheem MostertRB3431401127.5420
11Jacob HollisterTE3331563107452
11David NjokuTE3232011168
11Kyle AllenQB32731114.5128
11Younghoe KooPK320511.541
11Devin FunchessWR28191272
11CLE Team DefenseDF2520131758
11DAL Team DefenseDF252219110127
11Ross DwelleyTE25733113246
11Deebo SamuelWR24016219134.5478
11Nelson AgholorWR24734116.5156
11Dan BaileyPK231791349
11MIN Team DefenseDF23356140264
11Nick FolkPK221101548
11Hunter RenfrowWR211049122356
11Mike DavisRB2121418101
11Mitchell TrubiskyQB2141817155
11Chris BoswellPK201961340
11Matt GayPK191081526
11Ryan FitzpatrickQB19938113250
11Joey SlyePK1831511350
11Kenjon BarnerRB180161278
11Tyler EifertTE176181868
11Jake ElliottPK16121111
11Mason RudolphQB1672011189
11Matt PraterPK1612121650
11Taylor GabrielWR1641214.549
11CAR Team DefenseDF15102514199
11KC Team DefenseDF154291558
11Benjamin WatsonTE1461517.565
11Darius SlaytonWR1401421145300
11Kyle RudolphTE14086772251
11Demarcus RobinsonWR13531111187
11HOU Team DefenseDF1302114
11Stephen HauschkaPK13631128
11Brett MaherPK123121551
11Dare OgunbowaleRB1271014.534
11Jeff DriskelQB1201215.551
11Michael BadgleyPK12211014.577
11GB Team DefenseDF11362717137
11Luke StockerTE110171955
11Peyton BarberRB11429118110
11DeAndre WashingtonRB109811.549
11Jason MyersPK104851131
11Malcolm BrownRB1016181995
11Sam DarnoldQB10543233108
11Blake JarwinTE901311337
11Darrel WilliamsRB9102031554
11Darwin ThompsonRB93181995
11Demaryius ThomasWR931121125
11Robbie GouldPK9262116
11Austin SeibertPK872116
11Jordan AkinsTE8453116275
11Ryan TannehillQB82430113.588
11SEA Team DefenseDF8232817158
11Jaeden GrahamTE7032123124
11PIT Team DefenseDF701072278299
11Paul PerkinsRB7051311
11Bilal PowellRB622211.54
11Delanie WalkerTE61133126.571
11Derek CarrQB651411331
11LA Team DefenseDF611551588.5524
11Myles GaskinRB643715.520
11Nyheim HinesRB681911267
11Rob GronkowskiTE6315219.5522
11Tre'Quan SmithWR682151254
11Allen LazardWR5131811641
11Brandon McManusPK51141166
11Chase EdmondsRB566513211
11Dwayne HaskinsQB5076116331
11Giovani BernardRB521211294
11Jordan ThomasTE5081132
11N'Keal HarryWR514111737
11Qadree OllisonRB501111319
11Ryan FinleyQB5251117
11TEN Team DefenseDF51626111101
11Zane GonzalezPK52051510
11BUF Team DefenseDF4350256.586
11Hayden HurstTE445316200
11Jordan WilkinsRB4204611180
11Justice HillRB41542133100
11LAC Team DefenseDF421311.59
11MIA Team DefenseDF4071222
11Ted GinnWR425181171
11Alex EricksonWR33251212
11Benny SnellRB3981319
11Daniel JonesQB32201357
11Demetrius HarrisTE3281913
11Gus EdwardsRB3133534953
11Jeff WilsonRB321821637
11Kerryon JohnsonRB3481321
11NO Team DefenseDF32931131236
11Rex BurkheadRB341741829
11Rhett EllisonTE3274227
11Seth DeValveTE3026192929
11Wayne GallmanRB37323686
11ATL Team DefenseDF201111
11Allen HurnsWR20262226.531
11CHI Team DefenseDF272032037
11DET Team DefenseDF226211.52
11Dion LewisRB2251049.515
11Foster MoreauTE29211.52
11Jordan MatthewsWR2022411224.5438
11Justin JacksonRB202344234464
11Kalen BallageRB22912591157
11Mason CrosbyPK280212.54
11Patrick LairdRB221111
11Reggie BonnafonRB2201019.518
11Sam FickenPK211111
11Trey BurtonTE2114147
11ARI Team DefenseDF1824242424
11Antonio BrownWR1271111
11Auden TateWR1950505050
11BAL Team DefenseDF1828282828
11Ben BrauneckerTE1038383838
11Bisi JohnsonWR1191111
11Blake BortlesQB101111
11Brandon AllenQB1028282828
11Breshad PerrimanWR111111
11Brian HoyerQB11729292929
11Cameron BrateTE1171111
11Chase McLaughlinPK121111
11Chester RogersWR1271111
11Chris ThompsonRB11714141414
11Geronimo AllisonWR1163333
11Greg ZuerleinPK1159595959
11Harrison ButkerPK12108108108108
11IND Team DefenseDF18418181818
11Ian ThomasTE109999
11J.D. McKissicRB11188188188188
11JJ Arcega-WhitesideWR111111
11Jacoby BrissettQB12123123123123
11Jakobi MeyersWR151111
11Jason SandersPK101111
11Josh HillTE133333
11Josh OliverTE121111
11Keelan ColeWR165555
11Kirk CousinsQB111111
11Kyle JuszczykRB111111
11Mike BooneRB101111
11NYG Team DefenseDF1821111
11Paul RichardsonWR1211111111
11Phillip DorsettWR191111
11Ricky Seals-JonesTE19111111111111
11Ryan NallRB101111
11Ryquell ArmsteadRB141111
11TB Team DefenseDF1181111
11Ty MontgomeryRB1329999
11Vance McDonaldTE1211111111
11Wil LutzPK1043434343
11Will DisslyTE111111
11A.J. BrownWR09NANANANA
11A.J. GreenWR05NANANANA
11Adam HumphriesWR020NANANANA
11Adam VinatieriPK064NANANANA
11Adrian PetersonRB02NANANANA
11Albert WilsonWR011NANANANA
11Aldrick RosasPK017NANANANA
11Andy DaltonQB05NANANANA
11Anthony MillerWR020NANANANA
11Antonio CallawayWR01NANANANA
11Baker MayfieldQB02NANANANA
11Bo ScarbroughRB02NANANANA
11Brandin CooksWR05NANANANA
11Brandon BoldenRB06NANANANA
11Byron PringleWR01NANANANA
11C.J. AndersonRB01NANANANA
11C.J. ProsiseRB02NANANANA
11Cam NewtonQB04NANANANA
11Case KeenumQB01NANANANA
11Chris ConleyWR06NANANANA
11Chris HerndonTE0135NANANANA
11Cody LatimerWR01NANANANA
11Cole BeasleyWR01NANANANA
11Corey DavisWR014NANANANA
11DEN Team DefenseDF03NANANANA
11DaeSean HamiltonWR03NANANANA
11Damien HarrisRB04NANANANA
11Damiere ByrdWR01NANANANA
11Danny AmendolaWR015NANANANA
11Dante PettisWR07NANANANA
11Darrell HendersonRB08NANANANA
11Darren FellsTE05NANANANA
11Darren SprolesRB01NANANANA
11David MooreWR01NANANANA
11DeSean JacksonWR016NANANANA
11Deon CainWR01NANANANA
11Devin SmithWR02NANANANA
11Dez BryantWR02NANANANA
11Diontae JohnsonWR06NANANANA
11Dontrell HilliardRB04NANANANA
11Duke WilliamsWR03NANANANA
11Ed DicksonTE04NANANANA
11Eddy PineiroPK07NANANANA
11Frank GoreRB011NANANANA
11Gardner MinshewQB017NANANANA
11Ito SmithRB048NANANANA
11Jakeem GrantWR02NANANANA
11Jay AjayiRB020NANANANA
11Jeremy SprinkleTE01NANANANA
11Jimmy GaroppoloQB01NANANANA
11Jimmy GrahamTE06NANANANA
11Joe FlaccoQB01NANANANA
11Jonnu SmithTE012NANANANA
11Jordan ScarlettRB03NANANANA
11Josh AdamsRB01NANANANA
11Josh GordonWR02NANANANA
11Josh ReynoldsWR023NANANANA
11KeeSean JohnsonWR04NANANANA
11Keke CouteeWR05NANANANA
11Kenny StillsWR06NANANANA
11Laquon TreadwellWR06NANANANA
11LeSean McCoyRB09NANANANA
11Luke WillsonTE03NANANANA
11Mack HollinsWR01NANANANA
11Marcus MariotaQB01NANANANA
11Mark WaltonRB07NANANANA
11Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR027NANANANA
11Marquise GoodwinWR05NANANANA
11Matt BreidaRB01NANANANA
11Matt MooreQB06NANANANA
11Matt SchaubQB02NANANANA
11Matthew StaffordQB06NANANANA
11Mecole HardmanWR06NANANANA
11Mike GesickiTE05NANANANA
11Mike WilliamsWR01NANANANA
11Miles BoykinWR02NANANANA
11Noah FantTE01NANANANA
11Parris CampbellWR04NANANANA
11Philip RiversQB02NANANANA
11Preston WilliamsWR011NANANANA
11Randy BullockPK02NANANANA
11Rashaad PennyRB05NANANANA
11Robby AndersonWR09NANANANA
11Ryan SuccopPK03NANANANA
11Sterling ShepardWR08NANANANA
11T.J. HockensonTE02NANANANA
11T.J. YeldonRB02NANANANA
11Tajae SharpeWR01NANANANA
11Tarik CohenRB02NANANANA
11Tavon AustinRB03NANANANA
11Teddy BridgewaterQB02NANANANA
11Tom BradyQB01NANANANA
11Tony Brooks-JamesRB01NANANANA
11Tony PollardRB04NANANANA
11Tra CarsonRB06NANANANA
11Trey EdmundsRB028NANANANA
11Ty JohnsonRB015NANANANA
11Tyler HigbeeTE02NANANANA
11Tyler KroftTE02NANANANA
11Vernon DavisTE01NANANANA
11Wendell SmallwoodRB01NANANANA
11Willie SneadWR02NANANANA
11Zach PascalWR04NANANANA
11Zach ZennerRB01NANANANA
11Zay JonesWR07NANANANA
Credit: Roy K. Miller/Icon Sportswire Pictured: Juju Smith-Schuster

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