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Thanksgiving DK Buffet: Key Stats for the Holiday Slate

When I’m looking into the DFS slate each week, I like to go game by game and identify players or situations that intrigue me. In every game, on every team, there’s a situation that’s relevant for DFS, for either a positive or negative reason. These situations inform us of how we should attack each slate.

Atlanta Falcons

Spread: +7 vs New Orleans | Total: 48.5

Julio Jones ($7,300) is likely too cheap if he’s able to go on Thursday. He “didn’t practice”1 on Monday. Calvin Ridley ($6,600) is my preferred play, regardless. He saw 14 targets on Sunday, albeit with Julio on the sideline for parts of the game. 

He’s seen an increase in target share over the past couple of weeks. Even in the Carolina game, where Jones saw his regular complement of snaps, Ridley saw over 25% of the targets. Since the bye, Ridley is averaging over 20 DK points. 

Buffalo Bills

Spread: +7 @ Dallas | Total: 45.5

Josh Allen ($6,200) had just two QB1 performances in his first eight games. In his last three games? He’s had three QB1 performances. During that stretch, he’s averaging 46.7 rushing yards per game, which contributes more fantasy points than if he threw for an extra hundred yards. 

Allen has a high ceiling again this week. Our GLSP App has over 30% of his closest comps going for more than 25 PPR points. That’s only second to Dak Prescott on the Thanksgiving slate. 

Chicago Bears

Spread: -2.5 vs Chicago | Total: 38.5

The Bears are running low on warm bodies that can catch the football. We don’t need any extra reasons to target Allen Robinson ($6,700) but Taylor Gabriel’s absence means one less mouth to feed on Thanksgiving. This game has a low total, and with Robinson sandwiched between the two star Atlanta pass-catchers he could go a bit under-owned.

We can only hope that Mitch Trubisky ($5,300) understands that he should be targeting Robinson early and often. He saw double-digit targets for just the third time all season on Sunday and had a 28.1 DK point performance to show for it. 

Dallas Cowboys

Spread: -7 vs Buffalo | Total: 45.5

I alluded to it already, but the GLSP App has Dak Prescott ($5,700) with the highest likelihood of a 25-plus point game on the slate. It also gives him a very low likelihood of a bust game, with 60% of his closest comps going for at least 20 points. 

Prescott has finished as a QB1 in 73% of his starts so far this season. Last week, admittedly, was a disaster as he stumbled to 7.88 DK points. 

He’s been much better at home in 2019. Prescott is averaging just over 31 points at Jerry World. 

Detroit Lions

Spread: +2.5 vs Chicago | Total: 38.5

Jeff Driskel ($5,500) is nursing a sore hamstring. So much so, that the Lions attempted to sign Josh Johnson before being denied by the XFL. If he ends up being fine, Driskel has shown a decent floor in his starts and opens up some salary flexibility on a small slate. Most of his floor comes from his rushing production. 

Driskel’s averaging over 50 rushing yards per game over the past three weeks. He’s not a smash play, by any means, but if you’re building multiple lineups you can stack him with Marvin Jones ($5,300) and pay for whatever else you want in a given lineup. Jones saw 11 targets last week and has three red-zone opportunities in the last two games. 

New Orleans Saints

Spread: -7 @ Atlanta | Total: 48.5

Michael Thomas ($9,100) is the most expensive player on the slate by $1,000. He still may be underpriced. The season he’s putting together has been nothing short of incredible. Thomas has now seen double-digit targets in seven straight games. 

Since this streak started in Week 5, Thomas has averaged 29.3 DraftKings points per game. 

With the exception of air yards and touchdowns, Thomas is in the top five in every major category among wide receivers. At his price, Thomas is a major decision point on this slate. 

Image Credit: Andrew Dieb/Icon Sportswire. Pictured: Dak Prescott.

  1. The whole team technically didn’t practice, but teams are required to give a designation on a short week.  (back)

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