The Strength of Schedule Streaming app allows you to see which players have the easiest or most difficult upcoming schedules, a potentially league-winning edge that gives you the opportunity to buy players right before they explode in plus matchups.
Welcome back to the Buy Low Report. As usual, we will combine insight from the SoS Streaming App and the RotoViz Screener to identify players who are buy-low candidates. The SoS Streaming App reveals matchup data for each fantasy position. The Screener reports expected fantasy points (EP) — which measures the value of a player’s opportunities — and fantasy points over expectation (FPOE) — which measures a player’s efficiency.
Wide Receivers – Weeks 10 through 13
Christian McCaffrey is great.
He’s also stealing all of Moore’s touchdowns. Moore is in the midst of a second-year breakout, but he’s going under the radar somewhat because his raw fantasy point totals don’t jump off the page. But make no mistake: The 22-year-old out of Maryland is going to be a star in this league. He’s on pace for 90 catches and 1,128 yards on 136 targets after eight weeks, but he’s only managed one score on the season. Although fellow Carolina wideout Curtis Samuel has three scores, Moore is the clear WR1 in that offense; he’s only had one week with fewer than eight targets. He also got tackled on the one-yard line this week, preserving him as a buy-low candidate. Moore is 18th among wide receivers in expected fantasy points on the season but is being valued as a fringe WR2/3 candidate. Over the next four weeks, the Panthers have the seventh-easiest schedule for wide receivers.
Moore is quietly coming into his own as a WR1 in this league, and he headlines this week’s Buy Low Report. He’s the perfect combination of talent, impending positive regression, and an easy schedule. Buy while you still can.
An injury partially derailed what looked a promising sophomore campaign for Kirk, but he’s ready to pick up where he left off pre-injury. He only had five targets in Arizona’s Week 9 loss against San Francisco, but he’s averaging 8.8 looks per game. The problem has been efficiency. Kirk is averaging just 6.2 yards per target and has yet to find the end zone. Nothing a Week 10 matchup against a soft Buccaneers’ defense can’t fix.
Kirk has been getting consistent volume this year, and the efficiency will regress toward the mean. Facing the 11th-easiest schedule for wideouts over the next month, Kirk is a clear buy candidate.
Chark is the third second-year wideout on this week’s list after catching just four of nine targets for 32 yards in the Jaguars’ Week 9 loss to Houston. Chark is probably the most surprising sophomore breakout wide receiver, as he’s on pace for a 76/1,230/11 line after accumulating just 174 receiving yards all of last year. The former LSU speedster has disappointed in three of the last four weeks after opening the year on a hot streak. However, he’ll have a good chance to get out of this funk soon considering the Jaguars have the fourth-easiest schedule for wide receivers over the next four weeks, although they are on a bye this week.
You can either wait a week to target Chark so you don’t have to hold him during his bye, or you can trade for him now and stash him on your bench for a week. Either way, he looks poised to turn it around sooner rather than later.
Robinson was on this list last week, and it’s pretty much the same story this week.
The man deserves better.
Last week, he went up against a Philadelphia Eagles’ secondary that has been getting absolutely torched by opposing WR1s all year long. The result?
One catch. Six yards.
Mitchell Trubisky, be better.
Robinson still ranks 12th amongst wideouts this year in expected fantasy points, and his schedule over the month is everything you’d hope for a wide receiver trying to bust out of a slump. Chicago has the fifth-softest schedule for wideouts over that time span, which is obviously good news for their WR1. Robinson is on pace for 142 targets, and it’s simply too hard to turn down that kind of volume combined with that picture-perfect upcoming schedule, even with Trubisky throwing the rock.
Running Backs – Weeks 10 through 13
Another week, another scoreless game for Leonard Fournette. It’s been that kind of year for the former LSU Tiger, as he has just one touchdown on 214 touches.
And that’s exactly why we want to buy him. Fournette has been incredibly involved in the Jaguars’ offense this year, especially as a receiver. He has 51 targets in nine games, and he’s turned that into a 40/295/0 receiving line. On the year, he ranks fourth among running backs in expected receiving fantasy points to go along with ranking third at the position in expected rushing fantasy points. He’s averaging more than two points per game below expectation, which is shocking considering most top RB1s have more fantasy points than their volume would imply.
Although the Jaguars’ schedule is brutal over the next four weeks — they have the fourth-toughest schedule for running backs over that time span — Fournette is worth buying simply because he is getting massive volume and not putting up massive fantasy numbers. That is likely to change sooner rather than later even with a difficult schedule.
Devin Singletary was a bell cow last weekend. After totaling 20 carries in four healthy games prior to the Bills’ Week 9 showdown against Washington, Singletary doubled his season total by recording 20 in one game. He played 66% of snaps after playing 68% in the week prior. Singletary’s high attempt count was indubitably driven by game script — the Bills cruised to a 24-9 win over a hapless Washington squad — but the point remains that this is Singletary’s backfield. He’s been involved as a receiver too, seeing 10 targets over the last two weeks. The Bills have an average schedule for running backs over the next four weeks, but you’ll want to get Singletary on your team for the home stretch in spite of that. He has the potential to be a league-winner if he continues getting that type of volume.
Thanks for reading the Week 10 edition of the Buy Low Report. Check back next week for the Week 11 article.