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Week 12 Buy Low Report – D.J. Moore May Never Score a Touchdown Again

The Strength of Schedule Streaming app allows you to see which players have the easiest or most difficult upcoming schedules, a potentially league-winning edge that gives you the opportunity to buy players right before they explode in plus matchups.

Welcome back to the Buy Low Report. As usual, we will combine insight from the SoS Streaming App and the RotoViz Screener to identify players who are buy-low candidates. The SoS Streaming App reveals matchup data for each fantasy position. The Screener reports expected fantasy points (EP) — which measures the value of a player’s opportunities — and fantasy points over expectation (FPOE) — which measures a player’s efficiency. You can also check out Shawn Siegele‘s Sell High companion piece when it comes out later this week.

Wide Receivers – Weeks 12 through 15

Curtis Samuel and D.J. Moore

Both Panthers’ receivers made an appearance in this space last week, and they return this week after Curtis Samuel disappointed — four catches for 25 yards on seven targets — and DJ Moore failed to score a touchdown once again. The Panthers have the 11th-easiest schedule for wide receivers over the next four weeks, but the real reason we want to target them in trades right now is that they are both drastically underperforming their volume. Of course, that’s probably going to continue to be the case because Kyle Allen is still their quarterback, but the extent to which they are underperforming is almost extraordinary. Moore is in the midst of a breakout sophomore campaign, on pace for 99 catches and 1,246 yards through 10 games. He has just one touchdown. He’s a WR1 by expected fantasy points right now, and he should realize that upside sooner rather than later once the touchdown regression hits. Samuel, on the other hand, is quietly on pace for 120 targets and ranks sixth among wide receivers in air yards. The Panthers have one of the best young receiving corps in the league on their hands, and both are startable plays rest-of-season. Buy them both.

Chris Godwin

A touchdown saved an otherwise dreadful day for Chris Godwin, but it still wasn’t a great outing for the third-year breakout wide receiver. After recording four 100-yard games through the first six weeks, Godwin hasn’t topped 74 in any of the last four weeks. He’s still getting elite volume — he has 35 targets over the last four games — so now is the perfect opportunity to buy an underperforming stud. Tampa Bay has the sixth-easiest schedule for wideouts over the next month, although a large part of that ranking is because they play a Falcons’ defense that has picked it up recently after struggling for the first half of the season.

Still, Godwin’s role as a high-volume receiver in the Buccaneers’ explosive, pass-heavy offense is extremely valuable. Buy the dip and enjoy your WR1 production for the rest of the season.

Odell Beckham, Jr.

At this point, it might just be easier to copy and paste the same blurb for Odell Beckham every week because it’s apparently his goal to underperform his volume in every game this season. Beckham hit double-digit targets for the fifth time in 10 games in Week 11, but he only managed to turn his 10 looks into four catches for 60 yards. He’s fifth among wide receivers in weighted opportunity rating and 11th in expected receiving fantasy points, but he ranks 28th at the position in actual fantasy points. It hasn’t happened yet, but a vintage Odell game is coming soon; the volume he’s getting all but guarantees it. Over the next four weeks, the Browns have the seventh-easiest schedule for wideouts, starting with a matchup against a porous Miami defense.

He won’t be super cheap in trades because he’s still a household name, but he’s much cheaper than he should be right now. Odell is a top buy heading into Week 12.

Kenny Golladay

Kenny Golladay’s stock took a big hit when news came out that Matthew Stafford would be sidelined for six weeks with back and hip injuries. Although Babytron has disappointed the last two weeks with Jeff Driskel running the show, the Lions have the third-easiest schedule for wide receivers over the next four weeks, so Golladay will have many opportunities to turn it around.

His value indubitably is less than it would be with a healthy Stafford, but now is a good time to take advantage of an over-adjustment by the public. Buy Kenny G.

Running Backs – Weeks 12 through 15

Saquon Barkley

Saquon Barkley has been fine this year when healthy, but fantasy owners who picked him have to have a bad taste in their mouth considering the historic season Christian McCaffrey is having. Still, Barkley is averaging 15.5 carries and 6.8 targets per game when he has played the entire game, so he’s still getting elite volume. He also ranks third at the position in expected fantasy points per game if you exclude the Giants’ Week 3 bout against Tampa Bay in which Barkley only played 37% of snaps before exiting with an injury. Saquon will have the opportunity to return to elite RB1 status if he can capitalize on the Giants’ upcoming schedule, which ranks seventh-easiest for running backs over the next month.

If you’re a playoff team looking for someone to give you a push over the top, Saquon is just the guy to do it. He won’t be cheap, but he’s undervalued relative to where he should be following a couple of disappointing games (including a 13-carry, one-yard outing two weeks ago against the Jets). This is your chance to buy a high-end RB1 at a discount. It’s going to be hard to compete against McCaffrey and Dalvin Cook teams if you don’t have someone to match them, and Saquon is one of the few who can do just that.

Leonard Fournette

Leonard Fournette has been on this list multiple times before so I’m not going to focus on him too much, but he remains a buy candidate even though he only had eight carries last week. He’s on pace for 366 touches – including 93 targets – but he only has one touchdown on the season. He has a tough matchup against Tampa Bay in Week 13, but it’s sandwiched by two positive matchups that present good touchdown opportunities for the unlucky workhorse. Bet on regression and buy Fournette.

Phillip Lindsay

After breaking out as an undrafted rookie, Phillip Lindsay has picked up right where he left off this season, as the former Colorado star is averaging 4.9 yards per attempt in his sophomore campaign. Reports out of Denver prior to last week’s game indicated that the Broncos planned to give more carries to Lindsay instead of backfield counterpart Royce Freeman, and that came to fruition as Lindsay set a season-high in snap share (64%) in Week 11. Over the next month, Denver has the second-easiest schedule for running backs, so Lindsay has league-winning potential as their clear RB1.

Although there isn’t much touchdown upside in a Brandon Allen-led offense, Lindsay should continue to be a solid RB2 simply based on volume. He’s a great buy candidate given how easy the Broncos’ schedule is down the stretch.

Thanks for reading the Week 12 edition of the Buy Low Report. Check back next week for the Week 13 article.

Image Credit: Steven King/Icon Sportswire. Pictured: D.J. Moore.

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